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The Josh Rosen fear factor … Pocket passers … SS potential for great NFL career
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Gus R. Michaels III, Esq.
I wrote most of this a while ago and held onto it. The initial stuff was written after the @Texas Tech game (game #9), where SS played an extremely shaky 1st half, but then ended with a good game and road victory. TTU did not have a good defense, however in the 1st Q, SS was confused and rattled. Then I saw some draft projections and they were ‘best thrower’ and pocket passer.’ For whatever reason, Josh Rosen popped into my head.
My initial thought was “I can see SS maybe dropping some in the draft, but NOT out of the Top-20. How well he does in the NFL combine and/or team workouts will solidify his draft position. Tons of great qualities and huge upside can make SS a top-5 pick. He is definitely a top-5 QB and it was impossible to project other QBs who would go in front of him in this draft.”
Now the verdict is in: SS went in round five (#144) to Cleveland. Rather than talking conspiracies, vendettas, or the NFL establishment making a point, this is old analysis, updated a bit, and sets forth the ‘Josh Rosen fear factor.’ A few things to point out:
- SS did not participate in the combine or team workouts, except for CUs pro-day doing great but fairly limited work; hence he did not solidify his draft position. Instead, he might have miscalculated or “over-shot,” turning teams off.
- In the end, it does not appear the NFL was really enamored with any QBs in this draft class, except for #1
- Doing research on the ages of projected starting NFL QBs going into last season. The average age for a starting NFL QB is about 28-30, and the better ones are generally older. I thought Hurts and Murray were young, they were 26 and 27 into last season. Nix was 25. The younger ones were Williams and Richardson and they were sort of limited in their offense. SS just turned 23, and he seems like a young 23
- Last year, two NFL reclamation projects who bounced to numerous teams had good seasons: Baker Mayfield and Sam Darnold. Could this become a trend?
- In reflecting on SS’s last season, I sort of give games 1-3 a pass. As a whole SS put together an incredible season, however about specifics in some games, IMO his play showed some cracks and un-evenness at times. It just seemed that more development in certain areas is necessary.
A. NFL QB DRAFTING
Overall, NFL team’s factor in a bunch of things projecting their draft board and the QB calculus is all over the map. As with 4-5* high school recruits into college, projecting who is the unicorn (HOF/Pro-Bowl QB) v. who bonks (list is long) is a very inexact science in the NFL. When you look at QB draft busts—1st round QB’s are a 50/50 proposition or less in whether they actually succeed. If they succeed, it is also a matter of to what degree. Many publications actually list Andrew Luck as a bust, since his career was derailed by injuries and an early retirement, leaving the Colts in a lurch. If teams QB bust bad, the cost is generally high as it can set back a franchise back many years. The 49ers busting on Trey Lance (#3 pick, 2021) then falling into Brock Purdy (Mr. Irrelevant) is an anomaly.
Dropping draft spots can mean a team that wants a QB that they can develop slower, get seasoning sitting for years 1-3. Although SS dropped to the 5th round, this could take off pressure on SS/Franchise and allow time for SS to refine/develop. Except for a few unicorns (Mannings, Luck, Mahomes, Lamar, Jackson, Cam Newton) drafted as rookies, there are many more 1st and 2nd round QB draftees who have bonked–either out of the league or now onto team #3/4. Remember, Favre was 2nd round pick, known to have the most QB upside in that draft, per Jerry Glanville: “it would take a plane crash to put Favre into a game.” Farve made his bones with his 2nd franchise with a coach that wanted to teach him and he was ready to be a pupil.
B. ROSEN FEAR FACTOR/SS SIMILARITIES
Heading into this draft the best SS accolades were his “special arm,” toughness, and tremendous upside. Like Rosen SS was projected as primarily a pocket passer, yet perhaps a little undersized—he is not yet 6’4,” like Brady or Rosen. When you talk about great arms, the 2018 draft the NFL’s establishment fell over backwards gaga over Josh Rosen (UCLA)—aka the next coming of Aaron Rodgers and even touted the “most NFL ready.” Arizona mortgaged to the hilt in moving up drafting him at #10, however Rosen miserably bonked and is already out of NFL.
The best compliment attributed of both guys was elite arms–both guys throw/threw very exceptional balls with speed, accuracy (into tight windows) and could make all the throws coming out of college. However, although both guys could extend plays, neither guy was necessarily an improvisor, threw using vastly different arm angles (aka—Mahomes), or were considered fast/mobile or the most athletically gifted QBs, who can beat you with their legs. Neither guy possesses a ‘quick release’ either. Certainly, Rosen did not exhibit SS’s charisma or swagger. SS is a better athlete and showed more toughness. Given those differences, I thought SS would go higher or near where Rosen did, but that was viewed as a loaded QB class, whereby this one was not.
C. NFL QB INTANGIBLES
IMO the ‘Rosen fear factor’ is real and where some the writers and NFL’s front offices may actually calculate from. Why did Josh Rosen completely bonk out of the NFL? I think that for Rosen the NFL intangibles (ie. the “Factors”) were just not ready/developed and he played too early. The Factors are: (1) transitioning to the speed and complexity of the NFL game; (2) not growing nimble in the pocket as necessary for an NFL pocket; and (3) an underdeveloped NFL pocket presence. For instance, some of our NFL QBs (Mahomes, Hurts, Jackson etc…) either have eyes in the back of their head, feel the rush, and/or just really make quick decisive great decisions/plays–running or passing. Having developed Factors, they save their body (not getting pounded, injured or frustrated) and make enough plays + some great ones gaining confidence = equaling early NFL success.
On the other hand, when young QB’s without the Factors developed get thrown into the fire: they may hold onto the ball too long; step-up into the wrong place; may not be completely confident with their reads; and take extra unnecessary hits when they can be avoided. Injury is a real concern for young QB’s and NFL franchises. For example, Tua Tagovailoa possesses special talent playing some great games/stretches in Miami, however he has battled injuries/concussions and may retire if he sustains another concussion. Maybe Tua just cannot feel the rush. RG3 is a similar story, it was a knee instead. Also, being drafted and playing early yields a tough high pressure early experience. If it is with a middling franchise, they probably lose more games. Trevor Lawrence is a great QB, but winning has been elusive.
I do not see SS as a Josh Rosen per se, but I can see some legitimate NFL concern in this area. For SS, just watching last year’s games (I wrote most of this after Texas Tech), I concluded that SS might need be a bit more NFL development and/or NFL seasoning than I originally thought. I think SS has more talent, charisma, and toughness than Rosen, however sometimes SS might: miss the hot read; step-up into a sack; not quiet feel the rush; think he can escape, then cannot; and he does take hits for it.
D. LIST OF NFL EARLY ROUND QB’S BUSTS IS LONG
The list of recent 1st and 2nd round bonks is long: Zach Wilson, Levis (he just got drafted over), Fields, Pickett, Mac Jones, Trubitsky, Haskins, Drew Lock, Trey Lance and Denver’s own: Paxton Lynch. Mayfield and Sam Darnold flunked with their 1st NFL team(s) and have seen a resurgence after re-tool. When you look at older ones: Mariota, Sam Bradford, RGIII (perils of starting too early) and even Andrew Luck are considered busts.
The NFL is only faster, more intricate, and more physical than college. That said, needing NFL development is NOT a bad thing. I can’t say enough good things about SS. He will now enter the league with a huge chip on his shoulder. If he develops under good coaches and takes to the coaching, I believe he will probably eventually gets some starts in the NFL, still with potential for a great career. However, a stint NFL seasoning or learning w/o pressure rather than thrown into the fire could be great for him.
For pocket passers, the guys who fared well playing very early: Brady, Ben Roethlisberger (IMO, the GOAT of early playing success then HOF career), Stafford although not W-L, Carson Palmer until he did the ACL, and Andrew Luck were much bigger. Those were bigger, taller and beefier QBs with teams/coaches far enough along to protect them or large enough to take beating and all minimizing bad play, lack of confidence or frustration. Russell Wilson is a smaller guy here too. They all had the Factors.
E. A SUCCESSFUL NFL CAREER/DREW BREES PATH
Generally, being considered a successful NFL QB generally requires: winning games, getting to playoffs and a SB appearance; a sustained high level of play for a stretch of seasons; and longevity. Injury is not a part of this formula. With SS’s being 6-1, 214 unless the Factors are fully developed, an early NFL pounding, injury or frustration is a career concern. For a smaller QB in this era, Drew Brees is a good SS analogy in finding success. Brees sat behind Flutie for the Chargers, still probably played a bit too early initially having very little success. The Chargers drafted Rivers as their future QB. Brees started that season since the Chargers wanted Rivers to sit a year as a rookie. Brees produced a great “flash” season. Brees wanted free agency but the Chargers “franchised” him. Against Denver the next season, Brees suffered a torn labrum on his throwing arm and had to sit with a very uncertain future. Per Brees this was an awful time but the best thing that could have happened, as this reevaluation allowed him to retool his approach to the QB position being more efficient and staying healthy. He joined Payton (rookie coach) with the Saints then the storybook: a Ring, and many records since broken by Brady. If you go back further and find a 6’2” QB in the hall, it is Kurt Warner, who appeared in 3 SBs.
One last point concerning the drafting of very elite NFL ready QBs right out of college. In recent times I really only remember two “Manchilds” coming from college where it was pretty undisputed those guys had all the tools, NFL caliber skills, plus size, college championships, etc… and both guys came out looking more than NFL ready. That is Cam Newton and Jamies Winston. Newton locked in early, felt rush/eyes in back of head which translated into NFL wins early and avoided bad injuries or frustration. Cam was an MVP and put Carolina into Superbowl, so he is a success. Winston’s transition has been harder. It is sort of those intangibles/Factors, where although he is very big + mobile and makes some incredible plays, he still falls victim to turnovers and just uneven play. He is still in the league and probably worthy of the high pick, just not a successful career. The difference in these guys are the Factors, one takes hits and gets happy feat; the other held in there although it was not always pretty throughout his career. Also, results (and drafting) can be very dependent on the franchise, team, and coach. IMO, the next can’t miss were Peyton Manning (he had all the Factors and more) and Andrew Luck.