“T.I.P.S.” for CU v. BYU

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No. 20 CU v. No. 17 BYU: “T.I.P.S.” for the 2024 Alamo Bowl

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… Related … If you prefer your predictions verbally (and from more than one voice), “CU at the Game Podcast: ‘T.I.P.S.’ for No. 20 CU v. No. 17 BYU”, can be found at Apple Podcasts, Google Podcasts, or pretty much wherever you download your favorites. Or, if you would prefer, you can listen to this week’s CU/BYU preview podcast here.

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BYU missed out on a bowl game last season, with the Cougars finishing 5-7. Before that, however, BYU and their fans had been to bowl games for six consecutive seasons … and 18 of the past 19 campaigns.

Meanwhile, Colorado is in its first bowl game in eight seasons, and third in the last 19 campaigns.

Coach Prime chartered a special plane for the Buffs’ trip to San Antonio, with each player equipped with first class accommodations. He also quipped that, if CU didn’t win the Alamo Bowl, that the Buffs would be taking Southwest Airlines back to Boulder.

Which team will be more up for the game? Which team will be better prepared?

Which team wants it more?

Let’s find out …

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“T.I.P.S” for No. 20 CU v. No. 17 BYU

The Alamo Bowl – Saturday, December 28th, 5:30 p.m., MT, ABC

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T – Talent

BYU was one of the surprise teams in the nation for the first nine weeks of the 2024 season. Picked to finish 13th in the 16-team Big 12 (CU was picked to finish 11th), the Cougars raced out to a 9-0 record. Ranked No. 7 in the country, BYU was not only the favorite to win the Big 12, but was penciled in for a bye in the College Football Playoff.

But, after surviving a miracle finish to beat Utah (BYU quarterback Jake Retzlaff being sacked at his own two-yard line on fourth down, only to be bailed out with a defensive holding call. The Cougars went on to kick a game-winning 44-yard field goal with three seconds remaining), the Cougars ran out of gas. BYU lost to Kansas at home, 17-13, before falling to Arizona State on the road, 28-23, with the Cougars tumbling out of the national spotlight. A season finale home win over Houston stopped the losing skid, but it was too little, too late, for the Cougars to earn a spot in the Big 12 title game.

BYU’s signature win of the season was an 18-15 victory over SMU in Week Two, long before either team was ranked. The Cougars’ lone win over a ranked team came in a dominating 38-9 performance over then No. 13 Kansas State (CU, meanwhile, has only played one ranked team all season, falling to No. 18 Kansas State, 31-28.

BYU quarterback Jake Retzlaff is good, but not great. Retzlaff has almost 2,800 yards passing, with 20 touchdowns to go with 10 interceptions (Shedeur Sanders leads the Big 12 with almost 4,000 yards passing, with 35 touchdowns offset by only 8 interceptions). Retzlaff is completing only 57.9% of his passes, with BYU overall 56th in the nation in passing. Retzlaff, though, has hurt teams with his legs. Retzlaff has 388 yards rushing, with six touchdowns on the ground … including two rushing scores in the regular season finale against Houston.

Keeping Retzlaff contained will be a top priority for the CU defense, made a more difficult task with the departure of CU’s second-leading tackler, linebacker Nikhai Hill-Green.

Retzlaff has two favorite targets through the air, junior Chase Roberts (51 catches for 843 yards, with 20 catches for 344 yards in the last four games) and senior Darius Lassiter (43 catches for 679 yards). Both have four touchdown receptions, but neither are of the caliber of CU’s receiving corps.

Other than Retzlaff, who is second on the team in rushing, the Cougars ground attack is handled by running back LJ Martin. The sophomore has 630 yards rushing on the season, averaging 5.2 yards per carry with five touchdowns. Martin, though, was held in check late in the season, with no rushing touchdowns and no 100-yard rushing games in November.

While the BYU offense is good, but not great, BYU’s defense is very good, bordering on great. The Cougars boast two All-Big 12 performers, in defensive end Tyler Batty and defensive back Jakob Robinson. Overall, the BYU defense was 20th in the nation in total defense, giving up only 317.0 yards per game, and 20th in scoring defense, giving up only 20.08 points per game.

If the game comes down to special teams, the Cougars could have a significant advantage. BYU boasts two All-Big 12 special teams performers, with kicker Will Ferrin and kick returner Keelan Marion both earning All-conference honors.

BYU is a very good team. You don’t get to ten wins with smoke and mirrors. The Cougars are solid, but not great, and would prefer to get into a rock fight with the Buffs, rather than a scorefest.

We’ll see which team’s strategy wins out.

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I – Intangibles

Something to prove … Four Big 12 teams entered the final weekend of regular season play with 6-2 conference records. None of the four had a “win and your in” path to the Big 12 title game, but all four had College Football Playoff aspirations. The Buffs took care of business with a 52-0 dismantling of Oklahoma State on Black Friday, but still needed help to get to Arlington.

By the time BYU took the field on Saturday night, the Cougars knew that they couldn’t make it to the Big 12 championship game. Back-to-back one-score losses to Kansas and Arizona State had left BYU vulnerable, with wins earlier on the final Saturday of the regular season by Arizona State and Iowa State leaving BYU as an outsider. Despite the letdown, the Cougars took care of business in the home finale, beating Houston, 30-18.

Having gone from a 9-0 record and a No. 6 national ranking to a game which meant nothing in only two weeks, it would have been understandable if the BYU players had mailed it in against Houston, but the Cougars from Provo did what they needed to against the Cougars from Houston.

Buff fans should expect nothing less from BYU in San Antonio.

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Put me in, coach, I’m ready to play today … Buff fans were ecstatic to learn that Travis Hunter and Shedeur Sanders, along with CU’s other seniors, were planning on playing in CU’s bowl game.

“We have a plethora of seniors that are pro-bound, and guess what? Every last one of them are going to play,” Coach Prime said after the Alamo Bowl matchup was announced. “We don’t tap out. We don’t sit out.”

In the final game in which Shedeur and Travis will play for Coach Prime, viewers should look for some special plays on offense. Recall that the five-yard touchdown run Travis had against Utah was supposed to be a pass back to Shedeur.

A reverse? A double pass? A fake punt? All possibilities.

Oh, and during one of his interviews in New York, Travis hinted that he might try his luck at kicker.

A field goal attempt by Travis? If the Buffs are up big late in the game, I wouldn’t rule it out.

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P – Preparation/Schedule

New York, New York … Colorado and BYU have known about each other as bowl opponents, at least officially, since December 8th. Preparation for the Alamo Bowl, though, likely started for coaches the week before, as it appeared likely that the two teams were destined to meet in San Antonio.

As to the players, there may be a fair advantage for the Cougars. While Travis Hunter and Shedeur Sanders have spent the week at awards ceremonies, and a fair number of Buffs spent the weekend in New York with their teammate for the Heisman trophy presentation, BYU players had no such distractions.

Both teams had finals weeks to deal with, and both teams will have Christmas celebrations as distractions, the early preparation window for the Alamo Bowl certainly favored the Cougars.

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New Surroundings … As a long-time dominant force in the old Western Athletic Conference, BYU was a regular participant in the Holiday Bowl (including a win over Michigan in the 1984 Holiday Bowl, finishing off an undefeated season and BYU’s national championship), but have not been regulars in major bowls. In fact, BYU’s only New Year’s Day appearance was a Cotton Bowl victory over Kansas State to conclude the 1996 season.

The Alamo Bowl is not one of the major bowls, but is high on the list of second-tier bowls. while some Buff fans are non-plussed at CU’s third straight bowl trip to San Antonio, this is new territory for BYU.

As a result, while many CU fans expect an Alamodome filled with black-and-gold faithful, don’t be surprised if the majority of seats are filled with blue-clad Cougar fans.

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S – Statistics 

Common opponents … It’s an anomaly for two conference opponents to face one another in a bowl game, but for 2024 Alamo Bowl, your Pac-12 representative Buffs will be taking the field against the Big 12’s Cougars.

The two teams will face one another in Boulder next fall, but the first battle between CU and BYU since the 1988 Freedom Bowl will take place in San Antonio.

But … as long as Big 12 opponents are facing one another, we have the benefit of having a number of common opponents.

How did the Buffs and Cougars fare? …

• Both teams lost to Kansas … CU falling 37-21 in Kansas City; BYU losing 17-13 at home;
• Both teams beat Baylor … CU winning 38-31 in overtime at home; BYU winning 34-28 on the road;
• Both teams beat UCF … CU winning 48-21 on the road; BYU winning 37-24, also on the road;
• Both teams beat Arizona … CU winning 34-7 on the road; BYU winning 41-19 at home;
• Both teams beat Utah … CU winning 49-24 at home; BYU winning 22-21 on the road;
• Both teams beat Oklahoma State … CU winning 52-0 at home; BYU winning 38-35, also on the road.

The only outlier … CU lost to No. 18 Kansas State at home, 31-28, while BYU beat No. 13 Kansas State, 38-9, at home.

So, anything we can take from all that?

Probably not …

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Rushing offense is offensive … Last season, was ranked 130th in the nation in rushing, at 68.9 yards per game. After an off-season of bringing in a new offensive line, the Buffs rushed for … 70.4 yards per game.

How bad is CU’s rushing offense? The Buffs finished with 845 yards rushing. The No. 11 rushing team in the Big 12, Arizona, rushed for 1,279 yards.

CU has proven it can win without a running game, but, against better defenses, the lack of a rushing attack, the Buffs have struggled.

This just in … BYU has one of the better defenses in the Big 12.

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Prediction … 

Two years ago, predicting Colorado games was agonizingly easy … the Buffs were going to lose. It wasn’t a matter of whether the Buffs would lose, but by how much.

This season, many of us – myself included – were just hoping for six wins and a bowl opportunity. “A Bowl Trip For Peggy” seemed to be a worthy goal. Predicting the Buffs having a chance at a Big 12 title into the last weekend of the season seemed folly.

But Coach Prime believed.

Now the Buffs have a chance at ten wins. Is it asking too much for the 2024 Buffs to go out on a high?

Coach Prime doesn’t believe so.

“We have a multitude of young men that have desires to go pro,” Coach Prime said. “This is last call for them. We have a bunch of young men that want to establish themselves and beat out some of these guys that they know we’re attaining in the portal, and they want to put their footprint down going into the spring that, ‘Hey, man, this is my job. I should at least start first team.’ So it’s very important, and we keep it important. It’s not just a bowl game. We want to go there and play Buff football.”

BYU is very good, and also has something to prove. But the Buffs had a better November (the Kansas game notwithstanding), and Coach Prime doesn’t want to walk the field with his sons for the last time on a sour note …

Prediction … No. 20 Colorado 30, No. 17 BYU 24

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2024 Season (Straight up: 10-2; Against the Spread: 10-2)

• Prediction: Colorado 34, North Dakota State 20 … Actual: Colorado 31, North Dakota State 26
• Prediction: Nebraska 31, Colorado 24 … Actual: Nebraska 28, Colorado 10
• Prediction: Colorado 34, Colorado State 24 … Actual: Colorado 28, Colorado State 9
• Prediction: Colorado 27, Baylor 24 … Actual: Colorado 38, Baylor 31, OT
• Prediction: Central Florida 35, Colorado 24 … Actual: Colorado 48, Central Florida 21
• Prediction: No. 18 Kansas State 31, Colorado 27 … Actual: No. 18 Kansas State 31, Colorado 28
• Prediction: Colorado 28, Arizona 24 … Actual: Colorado 34, Arizona 7
• Prediction: Colorado 28, Cincinnati 20 … Actual: Colorado 34, Cincinnati 23
• Prediction: No. 21 Colorado 38, Texas Tech 30 … Actual: No. 21 Colorado 41, Texas Tech 27
• Prediction: No. 18 Colorado 27, Utah 17 … Actual: No. 18 Colorado 49, Utah 25
• Prediction: No. 16 Colorado 28, Kansas 24 … Actual: Kansas 37, No. 16 Colorado 21
• Prediction: No. 23 Colorado 42, Oklahoma State 21 … Actual: No. 23 Colorado 52, Oklahoma State 0

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2023 Predictions … (Straight up: 8-4; Against the Spread: 7-5) …
2022 Predictions … (Straight up: 10-2; Against the Spread: 9-3) …
2021 Predictions … (Straight up: 9-3; Against the Spread: 7-5) …

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This post, about the Alamo Bowl - BYU game, from the 2024 Season, is filed under Article.
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