“T.I.P.S” for CU v. Oklahoma State

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CU v. Oklahoma State: “T.I.P.S.” for No. 23 Buffs’ Home Finale

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… Related … If you prefer your predictions verbally (and from more than one voice), “CU at the Game Podcast: ‘T.I.P.S.’ for No. 23 CU v. Oklahoma State”, can be found at Apple Podcasts, Google Podcasts, or pretty much wherever you download your favorites. Or, if you would prefer, you can listen to this week’s CU/Oklahoma State preview podcast here.

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From the penthouse to the outhouse?

After four straight wins, and four straight promotions in the Associated Press poll and the College Football Playoff standings, the Buffs were again the talk of the nation.

After an unsightly loss to Kansas, however, the Buffs are again being derided.

Amazing how the haters go into hiding when CU is doing well on the field, then swoop in like a hurricane when there is anything negative to say about the program.

The sting Buff fans felt from the Kansas game was all too familiar. It’s going to take a long series of successful seasons before we are no longer guy shy from a single bad loss.

So the question is: Did Kansas give Oklahoma State (and CU’s bowl opponent) an updated blueprint on how to take down the Buffs? Or were the Buffs too busy reading their press clippings to adequately prepare for the Jayhawks, and are no grounded, and ready to dominate the Cowboys?

Let’s find out …

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This Week’s “T.I.P.S” for No. 23 CU v. Oklahoma State – Friday, 10:00 a.m., MT, ABC

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T – Talent

Oklahoma State came into the 2024 season as the No. 17 team in the AP preseason poll, and with every reason to expect they would compete for a second-consecutive berth in the Big 12 title game. The Cowboys were coming off of a 10-4 season, and were one of the most experienced teams in the Big 12.

In addition to seventh-year starting quarterback Alan Bowman, All-American running back Ollie Gordon decided to return. The decision seemed to make sense, with Gordon set to run behind an offensive line which ranked as one of the most experienced in college football history, with six redshirt super seniors.

The defense? Solid, with ten – count ’em, ten! – returning starters.

Oklahoma State opened up its fall campaign with a 3-0 record, rising to No. 14 in the polls after a dominating 45-10 win over Tulsa on September 14th.

The Cowboys haven’t won since.

Oklahoma State comes to Boulder sporting an 0-8 Big 12 record, and the Buffs are listed as over a two-touchdown favorite.

But … The Cowboys are only 0-1 since their bye week two weekends ago. Last Saturday, OSU lost to Texas Tech in a shootout, 56-48. During the bye week before the Texas Tech game, head coach Mike Gundy switched quarterbacks, with freshman Maealiuaki Smith taking over. On Senior Day in Boone Pickens Stadium last weekend, Smith invigorated the offense during his first career start, completing 26 of 36 passes for 326 yards with two touchdowns and an interception.

Running back Ollie Gordon, a potential Heisman trophy candidate in August, had his best game of the season against the Red Raiders, going for 156 yards and three touchdowns on only 15 carries.

So, has the Oklahoma State offense been reborn … or were the Cowboys taking advantage of the Texas Tech defense, which is 125th in the nation in both scoring defense and total defense?

In all likelihood, the 56-48 score fest last weekend in Stillwater was as much about poor defenses as it was about strong offenses.

The Oklahoma State defense, for its part, is even worse than what Texas Tech puts on the field. The Cowboys are giving up just over 500 yards per game on defense, second to last in the nation, with only winless Kent State being worse. OSU is also 117th in the nation in scoring defense, giving up 34 points per game.

Translation: Oklahoma State can score, but the Cowboys are well acquainted with being out-scored.

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I – Intangibles

Something to prove … After giving up points on each of the Jayhawks’ first seven drives in last Saturday’s 37-21 loss, the CU defense has some explaining to do. (Oh, and Kansas would have scored on its eighth drive, but only needed to run off the final six minutes of clock, settling for kneel downs in the CU red zone to end the game).

“We started smelling ourselves a little bit,” Coach Prime said. “That’s what I just told our team. We got intoxicated with success, we got intoxicated with the multitude of articles and the assumption that we’re this and assumption that we’re that, and we did not play CU football. Therefore we got our butts kicked. It is what it is.”

If the CU defense doesn’t come out with fire on Friday, I don’t know what it will take to motivate them.

Meanwhile …

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End of a rough season v. Something to play for … No bowl game to qualify for. No school records to set. Nothing to prove. A road game, with no fans in the stands cheering for a big finish to the season.

Sounds like the last game of most of CU’s seasons for the past 15 years.

Is it enough for the Oklahoma State players to try and keep from finishing 0-9 in Big 12 play for the first time in the 20-year Mike Gundy era? The first time in 18 years that the Cowboys aren’t going bowling? (Over that same time span, CU has qualified for all of three bowl games). Head coach Mike Gundy, with 20 years at the helm, is as close to a tenured coach as their is in America, and he says he’s not retiring.

As a result, there is not much going on over on the OSU side of the field. Players couldn’t be blamed for being ready to get the season over with, get home, and spend the remainder of the weekend with family and friends.

On the other side of the field, the Buffs get the advantage of still having something to play for on Friday. While CU needs help to qualify for the Big 12 title game, the games in which the Buffs need help will all be played on Saturday.

No scoreboard watching to be done. No chance of finding out that you have been eliminated from title contention during your game.

Win, and then sit back on Saturday an watch.

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Win one for DJ ... Saturday will be a homecoming of sorts for CU cornerback DJ McKinney. The Buff sophomore spent the last two seasons wearing the black-and-orange of Oklahoma State, red-shirting in 2022 before earning spot duty in 2023.

Not that there is any bad blood between McKinney and his old school, but here’s guessing DJ would love to pick up his second interception of the season this Saturday.

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P – Preparation/Schedule

Whether the Weather Matters … It’s November, which means that weather can always be a factor.

Kickoff is set for 10:00 a.m., MT, or 11:00 a.m., CT, for the Cowboys. The forecast high for Boulder for Friday is 40-degrees, which means it will be about 40-degrees when the game ends. At kickoff? Probably about freezing (if your seats are high in the east stands, like mine are, you can’t plan on seeing the sun until the second quarter, so dress appropriately).

No wind. No snow or rain. Just a chilly morning in the sunshine.

Football weather.

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Early start … The 10:00 a.m., MT, start is the second early home start in a row for the Buffs, having kicked off early against Utah two weeks ago.

So, I was wondering whether this would be a new experience for the Cowboys. Turns out, Oklahoma State has played three games at 11:00 a.m., Central time, though none since September.

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Mr. Smith goes to Boulder … Oklahoma State freshman quarterback Maealiuaki Smith had an impressive first start to his career against Texas Tech last weekend, with 326 passing yards and two touchdowns.

But the CU coaching staff will have something the Texas Tech coaching staff didn’t have … film on Mr. Smith.

Once schools have film on you, it’s easier to prepare and game plan, and, hopefully in CU’s case, take advantage of Mr. Smith’s inexperience. Look for the CU defense to change up its looks, send blitzers, and otherwise try and confuse the freshman quarterback.

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A short week – and a travel week … Black Friday games can be tough on players, and not just because it’s a short week. It’s a short week, and, for the road team, Thanksgiving becomes a travel day.

For the Oklahoma State players, it’s a triple (or quadruple?) whammy … A game with nothing to play for, plus its their final game of the season. OSU’s Senior Day – the Cowboys’ last home game – was last weekend. It’s a short prep week, traveling on Thanksgiving, an early kickoff, playing against a team backed by a (close to) sell out crowd, against a team with something to play for …

Stop me when you find something that gives Oklahoma State an advantage.

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S – Statistics 

— Penalties … 

Sure, it’s a given that CU has had problems with penalties. It’s not just the holding penalties, and the celebration and/or unsportsmanlike conduct penalties … it’s the timing. The Buffs’ numbers against Kansas weren’t killers – eight penalties for 65 yards – but they seemed to come at the most inopportune times.

For the season, the Buffs are 115th in the nation in penalties, and 118th in penalty yards.

If the Buffs find a way to lose to 3-9 Oklahoma State, you will probably be able to look at that stat line in the final game book, and see that the Buffs contributed to their own demise.

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— Third down struggles …

Against Texas Tech and Utah, the Colorado offense went 5-for-24 on third downs, but got away with it, scoring 90 points in those two games. Against Kansas, though, the Buffs were only 3-of-7 on third downs (and 0-for-2 on fourth downs). Part of the problem, of course, is that the CU defense couldn’t get off the field, with Kansas holding the ball for 40 minutes to CU’s 20.

Fortunately, Oklahoma State is 119th in the country in third down defense.

This Saturday would be a good time for the Colorado offense to find its groove again, and sustain drives – not only for scoring points, but to give the CU defense a chance to rest.

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Prediction … 

Last week, I posted this in the prediction section for the Kansas “T.I.P.S.”:

My head tells me this is the game where the Buffs stumble. This is the game, like the first half of the Nebraska game, where the Buffs’ slow starts catch up with them, and they are not able to fully recover the rest of the afternoon.

But my heart tells me that this is a special CU season, with a locker room filled with quality players like the 2016 squad, a team which refuses to be denied.

Shoulda gone with my head.

This weekend, my heart and my head are on the same page. The only team on the field this Friday which can beat Colorado is Colorado. Refrain from penalties. Don’t turn the ball over. Take advantage of opportunities to score … there should be plenty of them.

Coach Prime says there is nothing this team has to prove, and he is partially correct. If you are talking about CU’s eight-win season, that is totally correct. The Buffs could lose Friday, lose their bowl game, and still finish with a “better-than-expected” 8-5 record.

But this team wants more. This may be Travis Hunter’s final audition before the Heisman voters. Boise State will be playing Oregon State opposite CU/Oklahoma State, with CU/OSU on ABC; Boise State/Oregon State on Fox, so Hunter and Boise State running back Ashton Jeanty will be going head to head this weekend … but Jeanty is guaranteed another game to impress the voters, (likely) against UNLV in the Mountain West championship next weekend.

Hunter needs one more receiving touchdown to tie Nelson Spruce for the single season record (12).

Here’s guessing he gets No. 12 … and perhaps No. 13, as Shedeur makes sure Hunter gets his Heisman.

Prediction … Colorado 42, Oklahoma State 21

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2024 Season (Straight up: 9-2; Against the Spread: 9-2)

• Prediction: Colorado 34, North Dakota State 20 … Actual: Colorado 31, North Dakota State 26
• Prediction: Nebraska 31, Colorado 24 … Actual: Nebraska 28, Colorado 10
• Prediction: Colorado 34, Colorado State 24 … Actual: Colorado 28, Colorado State 9
• Prediction: Colorado 27, Baylor 24 … Actual: Colorado 38, Baylor 31, OT
• Prediction: Central Florida 35, Colorado 24 … Actual: Colorado 48, Central Florida 21
• Prediction: No. 18 Kansas State 31, Colorado 27 … Actual: No. 18 Kansas State 31, Colorado 28
• Prediction: Colorado 28, Arizona 24 … Actual: Colorado 34, Arizona 7
• Prediction: Colorado 28, Cincinnati 20 … Actual: Colorado 34, Cincinnati 23
• Prediction: No. 21 Colorado 38, Texas Tech 30 … Actual: No. 21 Colorado 41, Texas Tech 27
• Prediction: No. 18 Colorado 27, Utah 17 … Actual: No. 18 Colorado 49, Utah 25
• Prediction: No. 16 Colorado 28, Kansas 24 … Actual: Kansas 37, No. 16 Colorado 21

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2023 Predictions … (Straight up: 8-4; Against the Spread: 7-5) …
2022 Predictions … (Straight up: 10-2; Against the Spread: 9-3) …
2021 Predictions … (Straight up: 9-3; Against the Spread: 7-5) …

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This post, about the Oklahoma State game, from the 2024 Season, is filed under Article.
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