“T.I.P.S.” for No. 21 CU at Texas Tech

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CU at Texas Tech: “T.I.P.S.” for No. 21 Colorado at Texas Tech

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… Related … If you prefer your predictions verbally (and from more than one voice), “CU at the Game Podcast: ‘T.I.P.S.’ for No. 21 CU at Texas Tech”, can be found at Apple Podcasts, Google Podcasts, or pretty much wherever you download your favorites. Or, if you would prefer, you can listen to this week’s CU/Texas Tech preview podcast here.

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As bye weeks go, Colorado had a pretty good one.

A chance to get healed up. Extra time to prepare for its next game. A chance for Travis Hunter to do some fishing with his head coach before heading off to State College to be a guest on both ESPN GameDay and Fox Big Noon Saturday.

And then it got better … at least as far as CU’s position in the Big 12 standings was concerned. Two teams ahead of the Buffs in the standings, No. 11 Iowa State and No. 17 Kansas State, who were both double digit favorites in their games on Saturday, lost.

Suddenly, fourth place Colorado is now tied for second, with a much clearer path to the Big 12 title game (easiest route: win all four November games and have Iowa State lose one more game). Without lifting a finger, the Buffs moved from No. 23 to No. 21 in the Associated Press poll, and are ranked No. 20 in the first College Football Playoff rankings.

If the Buffs win out, good things will happen.

But, here’s the problem with Iowa State losing its first game of the season: The Cyclones, a two-touchdown favorite at home, lost to, you know … Texas Tech.

That would be the same Red Raider team the Buffs must now face in Lubbock.

No. 21 Colorado is listed by Vegas to be a 3.0-point favorite over Texas Tech.

Can the Buffs win their first game of the 2024 season playing as a ranked team?

Let’s find out …

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This Week’s “T.I.P.S” for No. 21 CU at Texas Tech – Saturday, 2:00 p.m., MT, Fox

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T – Talent

At halftime of the game between No. 11 Iowa State and Texas Tech, they Cyclones led Red Raiders, 13-10. Texas Tech quarterback Behren Morton was 13-of-22 for 139 yards, with a touchdown and two interceptions. All-everything running back Tahj Brooks had only seven carries, going for 35 yards.

At game’s end, however, Morton had 237 yards and two touchdowns, with Brooks going over 1,000 yards rushing for the season, finishing the rain-soaked battle with 25 carries for 122 yards and a game-winning touchdown with 20 seconds remaining, giving Texas Tech a 23-22 upset.

Morton is not the second-coming of Patrick Mahomes, but, like many Texas Tech quarterbacks before him, is more than effective. Morton has 2,300 passing yards on the season (16th in the nation; Shedeur Sanders is 8th), with an impressive 19 touchdowns to go with only five interceptions (though Morton had two picks against Iowa State, and was spared an ugly third interception by a Cyclone penalty).

Morton’s favorite targets have been Josh Kelly (68 catches for 736 yards and five touchdowns) and Caleb Douglas (44 for 594; four scores). Overall, the Red Raiders have been clicking along at almost 300 yards per game passing, 23rd in the nation.

But it would be a mistake to think of the Texas Tech offense as one-dimensional. In face, the scariest part of the Red Raider offense is running back Tajh Brooks. A 1,500-yard rusher in 2023, Brooks is already over the 1,000-yard mark for the 2024 campaign, and has already matched his 10-touchdown rushing mark from last season.

What is keeping the Red Raiders from being a Big 12 challenger has been the Tech defense. Surrendering 51 points to Abilene Christian in the opener helped to set the tone, and Texas Tech hasn’t held an opponent under 20 points all season. Overall, Texas Tech is giving up 34.4 points per game, 120th in the nation.

That being said … the Red Raiders did hold No. 11 Iowa State to 22 points in Ames, giving up only nine points after the break. Texas Tech also has the reigning Big 12 Defensive Player of the Week in linebacker Jacob Rodriguez. Rodriguez tallied 13 tackles, including two-and-a-half for a loss, a pair of sacks and a forced fumble in Texas Tech’s win at then-No.11/10 Iowa State. The linebacker matched his career high for tackles, while also setting career marks for sacks and tackles for loss in the Red Raiders’ first road win over a team ranked in the top 10 of either poll since 2011. Rodriguez leads the Conference with 84 total tackles, which ranks tied for eighth nationally.

Texas Tech has an effective offense, and an ineffective defense. If the Buffs continue the way they have been playing of late, that is a combination they can exploit.

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I – Intangibles

Who has more momentum? … A week ago, the CU game against Texas Tech looked much easier than it does now. Heading off to play undefeated Iowa State, the Red Raiders were two-touchdown underdogs. Texas Tech was on a two-game losing streak, being embarrassed at home by Baylor (59-35), and blowing a 17-point third quarter lead in a road loss to TCU (35-34).

Everything pointed to Texas Tech being blown out by Iowa State, then limping home to face Colorado on a three-game losing streak.

And now? Texas Tech is riding high. Not only are the Red Raiders now bowl eligible, at 6-3, but are still alive in the Big 12 race, with a 4-2 record in Big 12 play. A win over the Buffs, and Texas Tech will leap over CU in the conference standings.

The Buffs, of course, have momentum of their own. The 34-23 win over Cincinnati got the Buffs over the hump of bowl eligibility, a sixth victory which had eluded the program for the past eight seasons (0-11 in games played with five wins).

Colorado is bowl bound. Colorado is nationally ranked. Colorado is a national story … again.

Can the Buffs’ momentum be sustained?

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More to play for? … Apparently, I was in the minority Saturday. I was actually hoping for an Iowa State victory over Texas Tech, preferably by the predicted double-digit margin.

Instead, the Red Raiders have renewed life. After playing Colorado, Texas Tech finishes up with struggling Oklahoma State, and a home game against West Virginia.

A win over CU, and a 9-3, 7-2 record becomes a viable goal for the Red Raiders.

Buff fans saw the Texas Tech win over No. 11 Iowa State as a game which helped to clear the path for Colorado to get to the Big 12 title game.

Problem is … the win by the Red Raiders also opened doors – and hopes – of other programs as well, including Texas Tech.

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P – Preparation/Schedule

Whether the Weather Matters … It’s now November, which means that every game from here on could have weather issues.

So, what will the weather be like in Lubbock on Saturday afternoon?

Quite pleasant, actually. The forecast is for a high of 62-degrees and sun.

That’s about as nice as you could ask for in north Texas in early November.

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Bye Week Advantage? … The Buffs lost their game after their first bye week, falling at home, 31-28, to No. 18 Kansas State.

Last season, the Buffs lost their only game after a bye week, falling on the road to No. 23 UCLA, 28-16.

A pretty small sample size, to be sure, but CU is 0-2 after bye weeks in the Coach Prime era.

Worth keeping in mind … both of the first two post-bye week opponents were ranked, and, in the case of the Kansas State game, the opponent was also coming off of a bye.

This time, Texas Tech was playing a physical road game against Iowa State in the rain in Ames last Saturday, while the Buffs were resting (or, in the case of Travis Hunter, fishing in Texas and appearing on national pregame shows at Penn State).

Will the added week of rest benefit the Buffs, or will they come out rusty?

We’ll see …

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S – Statistics 

— Track Meet? … Texas Tech is averaging 36.4 points per game on offense, 20th in the nation, while giving up p 34.4 points per game, 120th in the nation. Colorado, meanwhile, is averaging 31.4 points per game (40th) nationally, while giving up 22.0 points per game (42nd in the country).

So, the Red Raiders are comfortable playing in track meets, taking their chances that their offense can outscore whatever the opposition can produce.

With the effectiveness of the Buff defense, a score fest would seemingly benefit Colorado.

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— Sack-less … The Colorado offensive line has been much better of late in protecting Shedeur Sanders, giving up only one sack in each of the last two games. On the season, the Buff line has given up two or fewer sacks in five of CU’s eight games. But … with six sacks surrendered to both Nebraska and Kansas State – and eight to Baylor – Colorado is still ranked 123rd in the nation in sacks allowed, with 26.

Chances are good, though, that the more recent trend of not allowing sacks will continue. Texas Tech’s defense has only 11 sacks on the season, ranking the Red Raiders 126th nationally.

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— Second half defense … The Red Raiders have been fast starters this season, out-scoring opponents 93-62 in the first quarter, and 194-143 in the first half. But … in the second half, Texas Tech has been out-scored 161-127, including 97-68 in fourth quarter. With the Colorado defense being so dominant in the second half this season (only 52 points in eight games, less than a touchdown a game), if the Buffs can hold their own in the first half against a sold out crowd in north Texas, the Buffs could have a decided advantage in the second half.

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Prediction … 

Before last weekend’s game, my quick response to a question about predicting the CU/Texas Tech game would have been:

Take the over.

With the Buffs a three-point favorite, and an over-under of around 63 points, Vegas is seeing the game as about a 33-30 game.

Texas Tech is giving up an average of 34 points per game … and the Colorado offense is much better than average.

Now, Texas Tech has a very good offense as well, so a shootout seemed to be the easiest prediction to make for this game.

That, however, was before the Red Raiders defense showed up, and played well in a 23-22 victory over No. 11 Iowa State. Now, Texas Tech will be playing with an increased dose of confidence.

A national television audience … the Fox Big Noon Saturday show making a pilgrimage to Lubbock … a sell out crowd of 60,000 … an amped Red Raider roster …

Could all of that lead to Texas Tech picking up a second consecutive win over a ranked Big 12 opponent?

Yes, but I’m still going with the Buffs. Colorado has a better defense, a defense which will, after back-and-forth first half, make the difference in the second half.

Prediction … Colorado 38, Texas Tech 30

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2024 Season (Straight up: 7-1; Against the Spread: 7-1)

• Prediction: Colorado 34, North Dakota State 20 … Actual: Colorado 31, North Dakota State 26
• Prediction: Nebraska 31, Colorado 24 … Actual: Nebraska 28, Colorado 10
• Prediction: Colorado 34, Colorado State 24 … Actual: Colorado 28, Colorado State 9
• Prediction: Colorado 27, Baylor 24 … Actual: Colorado 38, Baylor 31, OT
• Prediction: Central Florida 35, Colorado 24 … Actual: Colorado 48, Central Florida 21
• Prediction: No. 18 Kansas State 31, Colorado 27 … Actual: No. 18 Kansas State 31, Colorado 28
• Prediction: Colorado 28, Arizona 24 … Actual: Colorado 34, Arizona 7
• Prediction: Colorado 28, Cincinnati 20 … Actual: Colorado 34, Cincinnati 23

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2023 Predictions … (Straight up: 8-4; Against the Spread: 7-5) …
2022 Predictions … (Straight up: 10-2; Against the Spread: 9-3) …
2021 Predictions … (Straight up: 9-3; Against the Spread: 7-5) …

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This post, about the Texas Tech game, from the 2024 Season, is filed under Article.
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