Big 12 Notes

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Big 12 Notes – Texas Tech Week

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November 5th

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BYU (and the Big 12) have reason to be angry over first College Football Playoff rankings

From ESPN … It’s a new era for the College Football Playoff, with the field growing from four to 12 this season. That means three times as many programs will gain entry, but, beginning with Tuesday’s initial playoff rankings, there’s three times as much room for outrage, too.

Under the old rules, there was a simple line of demarcation that separated the elated from the angry: Who’s in?

Now, there are so many more reasons for nitpicking the committee’s decisions, from first-round byes to hosting a home game to whether your supposedly meaningful conference has been eclipsed by teams from the Group of 5.

And if the first rankings are any indication, it’s going to be a fun year for fury. There’s little logic to be taken from the initial top 25 beyond the committee’s clear love for the Big Ten. Penn State and Indiana make the top eight despite having only one win combined over an ESPN FPI top-40 team (Penn State over Iowa). That Ohio State checks in at No. 2 ahead of Georgia is the most inexplicable decision involving Georgia since Charlie Daniels suggested the devil lost that fiddle contest. Oregon is a reasonable No. 1, but the Ducks still came within a breath of losing to Boise State. Indeed, the Big Ten’s nonconference record against the Power 4 this season is 6-8, just a tick better than the ACC and well behind the SEC’s mark of 10-6.

But this is the fun of early November rankings. The committee is still finding its footing, figuring out what to prioritize and what to ignore, what’s signal and what’s noise. And that’s where the outrage really helps. It’s certainly not signal, but it can be a really loud noise.

This week’s Anger Index:

No. 1 … BYU … 8-0 … No. 9 … There are only two possible explanations for BYU’s treatment in this initial ranking. The first is that the committee members are too sleepy to watch games beyond the Central time zone. The second, and frankly, less rational one, is they simply didn’t do much homework.

It’s certainly possible the committee members are so enthralled with metrics such as the FPI (where BYU ranks 28th) or SP+ (22nd) that they’ve determined the Cougars’ actual record isn’t as important. This is incredibly foolish. The FPI and SP+ certainly have their value, but they’re probabilistic metrics, designed to gauge the likelihood of future success. They’re in no way a ranking of actual results. (That’s why USC is still No. 17 in the FPI, despite Lincoln Riley spending his days wistfully scrolling through old pictures of Baker Mayfield and Kyler Murray and wondering if Oklahoma might want to get back together.)

To look at actual results paints a clear picture.

BYU (No. 4) has a better strength of record than Ohio State (No. 5), has played roughly the same quality schedule as Texas and has two wins against other teams ranked in the committee’s top 25 — as many as Ohio State, Texas, Penn State, Tennessee and Indiana (all ranked ahead of the Cougars) combined.

Indiana’s rags-to-riches story is wonderful, of course, but how can the committee compare what BYU has done (wins over SMU and Kansas State) against Indiana’s 103rd-ranked strength of schedule?

And this particular snub has significant effects. The difference between No. 8 and No. 9 is a home game in the first round, of course, though as a potential conference champion, that’s a moot point. But what if BYU loses a game — perhaps the Big 12 title game? That could not only doom the Cougars from getting a first-round bye, but it could quite likely set up a scenario in which the Big 12 is shuffled outside the top four conferences entirely, passed by upstart Boise State.

What’s clear from this first round of rankings is the committee absolutely loves the Big Ten — with four teams ranked ahead of a subjectively more accomplished BYU team — and the Big 12 is going to face some serious headwinds.

… Continue reading story here …

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November 3rd

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Big 12 lines for Week 11: Colorado a 3.0-point favorite over Texas Tech

From DraftKings.com …

Big 12 games … 

• West Virginia at Cincinnati … 10:00 a.m., MT, FS1 … Cincinnati is a 3.5-point home favorite …
• Iowa State at Kansas … 1:30 p.m., MT, FS1 … Kansas is a 3.0-point home underdog …
• Colorado at Texas Tech … 2:00 p.m., MT, Fox … Texas Tech is a 3.5-point home underdog …
• Oklahoma State at TCU … 5:00 p.m., MT, FS1 … TCU an 8.0-poin home favorite …
• UCF at Arizona State … 5:00 p.m., ESPN2 … Arizona State a 3.5-point home favorite …
• BYU at Utah … 8:15 p.m., MT, ESPN … Utah at 4.5-point home underdog …
• … Four Big 12 teams have byes … Arizona, Kansas State, Houston and Baylor …

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November 1st

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The Athletic: Media “underreacting” to CU’s success

From The Athletic …

We are still underreacting to … Colorado.

An earlier edition of overreactions/underreactions stated that Colorado’s resurgence since its loss to Nebraska wasn’t getting enough attention. Now we’re into November, and the Buffaloes are 6-2, ranked and firmly in the mix for a Big 12 Championship Game appearance. Considering that the preseason over/under win total was 5.5, passing that number before Nov. 1 is strong.

More than just the wins, how Colorado is winning games is impressive. Shedeur Sanders and Travis Hunter carried a subpar roster last year. Those two are still elite, but this is a more complete team, particularly on defense. The Buffs’ defensive line leads the Big 12 in sacks and has allowed only 53 second-half points all season. All of a sudden, Deion Sanders’ record in two seasons is 10-10, and he has the Buffs in position for their first non-pandemic winning season since 2016.

If you are rolling your eyes and claiming that Colorado “hasn’t played anyone,” I’ll leave you with this. Here’s Colorado’s combined opponent record compared to the other top three teams in the Big 12 standings, including two that likely will appear in the first Playoff rankings:

Colorado: 40-25

Kansas State: 37-27

BYU: 30-34

Iowa State: 29-27

Interesting, right? Let’s keep that same energy across the board.

… Read full story here …

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October 31st 

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The beginning of the end of the Kyle Whittingham era at Utah?

From CBS Sports … Utah’s expected dream season has gone off the rails, the Cam Rising mystery dominates the headlines and now questions abound about what it all means moving forward.

Following the Utes’ 17-14 loss to Houston, the preseason betting favorite to win the Big 12 fell to 1-4 in conference and 4-4 overall. What many thought could be a “Last Dance” season more closely resembled a twisted ankle on the dance floor. The goal of making the first year of the 12-team College Football Playoff died quickly.

When asked to assess what had gone wrong recently, running back Micah Bernard gave a curious answer.

“Can’t answer that. I’m not gonna answer that,” Bernard said. “I know what it is, but I’m not gonna answer that.”

Without Rising, Utah has used both Isaac Wilson (younger brother of former BYU star Zach) and Brandon Rose to little success. Whittingham pulled Wilson in the third quarter of the Houston loss and said this week that he’s been “pretty banged up this year.” None of it bodes well for a struggling offense ahead of a highly anticipated “Holy War” against No. 9 BYU this weekend.

With this season up in flames, it prompts increased speculation about Whittingham’s future. Much of it has been self-inflicted as Whittingham has been very open about not planning on being a head coach much longer. He said in 2021 that he could “just about guarantee I won’t be coaching at 65.” He turns 65 next month.

He has slightly walked back the 65 comment since then, but before the season at Big 12 Media Days he reiterated he’s nearing the end of his road when discussing a scheduled 2027 game against Miami in Las Vegas.

“I probably won’t be sitting here, but somebody will be, and that’s going to be a great opportunity again to come to Vegas and play a game,” Whittingham said.

In July, Utah named defensive coordinator Morgan Scalley as head-coach-in-waiting. It is the second time Scalley has received that title though he lost the designation in 2020 after racial slur allegations surfaced. Scalley apologized and admitted to texting a racial slur to a recruit in 2013. The school enforced a significant pay cut, took away the HCIW title and had him participate in diversity and inclusion education.

The head-coach-in-waiting move was more popular a decade ago but has largely gone out of style because of the pressure it can create within a locker room. The idea behind naming Scalley, though, was to provide a long-term plan to show stability and fight back against the retirement rumors that have loomed over Whittingham for years. Almost every year around this time there is industry speculation that it could be the last year for Whittingham, who is in his 20th season as the Utes’ head coach. It has hurt Utah on the recruiting trail.

“I heard he was going to retire soon,” Ephraim Asiata, who signed with BYU, told The Salt Lake Tribune. “That played a big part in the decision.”

… Continue reading story here …

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ESPN: Oklahoma State & Arizona – What Went Wrong? 

From ESPN … As we close in on November and the upcoming unveiling of the initial College Football Playoff rankings, the teams everyone hyped to be national title contenders are right where we thought they’d be. Oregon, Georgia, Penn State, Ohio State, Texas and Notre Dame are all generally living up to top-10 expectations.

But preseason polls are an inexact science to say the least, an educated guessing game of which teams have enough returning talent and perceived momentum to win big. Ten teams in the preseason AP Top 25 are currently unranked, and a few are even heading toward losing seasons.

Where did they go wrong? Here’s a closer look at six teams — Michigan, Florida State, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Arizona and USC — with big expectations that have disappointed in 2024 and the roster issues they’re fighting to overcome on a weekly basis.

Oklahoma State

Preseason rank: 18th

What went wrong: Defensive setbacks

Mike Gundy surprised a lot of people in 2023 with a nine-win team that went all the way to the Big 12 championship game. With All-America running back Ollie Gordon II, seventh-year QB Alan Bowman and a senior-heavy team returning, it wasn’t a stretch to expect this team to be in CFP contention.

The Cowboys aren’t close. They’re 0-5 in Big 12 play for the first time since Gundy’s debut season in 2005 and are now in danger of snapping their 18-year bowl streak following a 38-28 road loss at Baylor.

Opponents loading the box to stop Gordon was to be expected, and his junior season (691 total yards, nine TDs) has been a challenging one. But the tougher problem to solve during their winless October has been the Cowboys’ defense.

Oklahoma State has had 18 or more missed tackles in four of its past five games, according to TruMedia data, and have the fourth-most missed tackles in the FBS this season with 112. Gundy counted 21 missed tackles that led to 258 yards against Baylor, resulting in a season-high 565 total yards for the Bears.

This defense is missing preseason All-Big 12 linebackers Collin Oliver and Nick Martin, just got leading tackler Trey Rucker back from an injury and has dealt with many more hits to its two-deep. But this game was the first one that left Gundy concerned about players’ effort level. Missing tackles is bad. Players not running to the ball is worse.

“We didn’t play hard on defense,” Gundy said Monday.

Gundy made a bold bet on Bryan Nardo entering 2023, hiring the young defensive coordinator away from D-II Gannon University with the hopes of emulating the Iowa State odd front scheme that has thrived against Big 12 offenses since 2017. Nardo’s defense was bend-don’t-break all season long, giving up the third-most 20-plus-yard plays in FBS, but it did get stops in critical moments.

There were many reasons for optimism entering Nardo’s second year after losing just two starters, but injuries and inconsistency have made it tough to show significant progress. Kansas State and West Virginia blew the Cowboys out, but the other three losses were close calls. They fought hard against undefeated BYU in a road game that could’ve been a turning point for the season, but the defense eventually ran out of gas, giving up a 75-yard game-winning drive in the final minute.

The schedule ahead — Arizona State, at TCU, Texas Tech, at Colorado — is not easy. If this team still hopes to rally and get to six wins, it’s going to take everything it has on defense. After the loss in Waco, Gundy told his players they need to do some soul searching. It’s clear he’ll have to do the same at the end of this disappointing season.

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Arizona

Preseason rank: 21st

What went wrong: New offensive identity

The offseason excitement around Arizona was justifiably focused around the star players who opted to return under new coach Brent Brennan, namely quarterback Noah Fifita and wide receiver Tetairoa McMillan, who’ve been playing together since they were eighth graders in California. But there were questions about the direction of the offense.

Some Big 12 assistants wondered whether Dino Babers, the former Syracuse coach beginning his second stint as Arizona’s offensive coordinator (1998 to 2000), would truly be empowered, or whether the offense would operate more like the ones Brennan had at San Jose State.

The answer is the latter, as Babers handed off playcalling duties to tight ends coach Matt Adkins after the Wildcats’ first loss. The main criticism of Arizona’s offense, which has fallen from 18th nationally in scoring in 2023 to 100th this season, is too much of a focus around its stars.

“Everything goes through those two guys,” said a defensive coordinator who faced Arizona. “They’ve got some other weapons, but it’s like buddy ball all the time. [McMillan is] still going to get his yards, but if you don’t let him get the explosives, they have a hard time driving the ball. I don’t think they’re committed to running the ball, even though they’re pretty good.”

McMillan has seen 88 targets, third most in FBS and 58 more than any teammate, and has turned them into 57 catches for 982 yards and five touchdowns. Arizona’s offense hasn’t found much it can do reliably well beyond force-feeding him the ball. They dropped 61 points on New Mexico in the season opener but haven’t scored 30 or more since and are averaging 17.3 points per game against Power 4 defenses.

Fifita’s completion percentage has dropped from 72.4% last season to 59.9% so far this fall, which includes only two games in which he has reached 62%. The third-year sophomore has 12 turnovers, twice as many as he did all last season, including at least one interception in each of the first seven games and three against BYU.

“If you can take away [McMillan], [Fifita] struggles,” a Big 12 defensive coordinator said. “Where he makes so many of his plays is when he just flips it up to [McMillan] and that guy comes up with something spectacular. He’s competitive, he’s going to give you everything he’s got and I like him, but it’s kind of weird what’s going on.”

The Wildcats have dealt with too many injuries on a weekly basis on both sides of the ball, making it impossible to live up to expectations in their first season in the Big 12. But the rapid decline of a top-10 team in 2023 that’s now mired in a four-game slide, one that could end up putting bowl eligibility out of reach, has left Brennan searching for answers. He’s got a lot of work to do to get this program back on the right track

… Read full story here …

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October 30th 

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Texas Tech starting quarterback Behren Morton back at practice; expected to start against Iowa State

From ESPN … Texas Tech quarterback Behren Morton looked strong in practice on Tuesday and is expected to start on Saturday at No. 11 Iowa State, sources told ESPN.

He did not play in the second half last week against TCU with a left shoulder injury. Texas Tech squandered a 17-point third-quarter lead and fell, 35-34, to TCU. Morton spent the second half in street clothes with his arm in a sling.

Morton had been considered questionable heading into the week, but a strong day of practice on Tuesday put him in line to start on Saturday, per sources.

Morton ranks No. 20 in the country in total passing yards with 2,063 yards. He has thrown 17 touchdown passes and just three interceptions.

Texas Tech (5-3) has lost two straight games after starting Big 12 play at 3-0, with wins over Arizona State, Cincinnati and at Arizona.

No. 11 Iowa State (7-0, 4-0) is one of the surprise undefeated teams in college football. They are coming off a bye week and have wins at Iowa, at West Virginia and at home against Baylor.

Texas Tech has the nation’s No. 18 offense. Star Texas Tech tailback Tahj Brooks is No. 3 nationally with 132.1 yards per game.

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West Virginia fires defensive coordinator Jordan Lesley

From NBC Sports … West Virginia fired defensive coordinator Jordan Lesley. Inside linebackers coach Jeff Koonz will replace Lesley for the rest of the season, coach Neal Brown said.

West Virginia’s injury-riddled secondary has struggled all season. The Mountaineers are surrendering 9.3 yards per pass play, worst in the Big 12, and their 17 touchdown passes allowed are the second-worst.

After giving up 45 points to No. 17 Kansas State on Oct. 19, West Virginia surrendered a pair of touchdown passes in blown coverage in a 31-26 win at Arizona.

“These decisions are never easy, but I’m confident this change is in the best interest of our program and puts us in the best position to finish strong,” Brown said in a statement.

Lesley was in his fourth season as defensive coordinator. He was West Virginia’s defensive line coach for two years before that and worked on Brown’s staff at Troy for three seasons.

West Virginia (4-4, 3-2 Big 12) plays next at Cincinnati (5-3, 3-2) on Nov. 9.

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October 29th 

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UCF fires defensive coordinator Ted Roof

From ESPN … UCF has fired defensive coordinator Ted Roof amid a five-game losing streak in which the Knights have allowed 37 points or more three times.

Roof, a veteran playcaller who spent the 2022 and 2023 seasons as Oklahoma’s defensive coordinator, was in his first season at UCF under coach Gus Malzahn. Co-defensive coordinator Addison Williams, who also is the team’s associate head coach, will take over defensive playcalling duties, according to a source. Williams served as UCF’s primary defensive coordinator in 2023, when the unit led the Big 12 against the pass and allowed its fewest passing touchdowns (12) since 2001.

The Knights have allowed 75 points and 1,010 yards total in losses to Big 12 leaders Iowa State and BYU the past two weeks. After a promising start in defending the run, UCF allowed 508 rushing yards in those two losses.

Roof and Malzahn served as coordinators for Auburn’s national championship team under Gene Chizik in 2010. Roof was in his second stint at UCF after serving as defensive coordinator in 2011, and also has held coordinator roles for Penn State, Georgia Tech, Vanderbilt and other programs. He was Duke’s head coach from 2004 to 2007.

Malzahn also announced that he will no longer be handling offensive playcalling, and is turning that duty over to offensive coordinator Tim Harris Jr.

UCF returns to the field this week when it hosts Arizona.

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This post, about the Texas Tech game, from the 2024 Season, is filed under Article.
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