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Big 12 Notes – Cincinnati Week
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October 23rd
… Foe Pause …
CBS list of ten most disappointing teams includes four Big 12 teams
From CBS Sports … Where we lack clarity on who will win college football’s most important trophies, we have lucidity on the ones that expected to be in those mixes but will fall far short. More than midway through the season, these are the 10 programs that have disappointed the most so far.
Arizona (3-4)
Preseason AP ranking: No. 21
With super duo Noah Fifita and Tetairoa McMillan coming back after a 10-3 season, the Arizona Wildcats were a popular pick to win their first year in the Big 12. The transition to first-year head coach Brent Brennan, though has been bumpy, magnified in a 34-7 loss to Colorado last weekend. Brennan quickly yanked play-calling duties away from offensive coordinator Dino Babers, but what was supposed to be a high-powered offense still looks out of sync. All the hope and goodwill Arizona had riding into this season has quickly evaporated.
Kansas (2-5)
Preseason AP ranking: No. 22
A pleasant surprise a year ago, Kansas crashed back to earth in a season that keeps getting worse. It is painfully obvious watching the Jayhawks’ wretched offense how much they miss offensive coordinator Andy Kotelnicki, who is dialing up exotic play calls for Penn State now. Poor Kansas has an absolutely brutal upcoming schedule, too: at No. 16 Kansas State, No. 10 Iowa State, at No. 11 BYU and Colorado. This is likely a nine-loss team a year after winning nine games.
Oklahoma State (3-4)
Preseason AP ranking: No. 17
Oklahoma State is winless (0-4) in Big 12 play after losing in the last minute to BYU last weekend. A dejected-looking Mike Gundy after the game embodied what this year has been like for the Cowboys. Returning one of the nation’s top offensive players, Ollie Gordon, who rushed for 1,732 yards and 21 touchdowns a year ago, Oklahoma State was billed as a preseason Big 12 and CFP contender. Gordon, however, hasn’t looked himself this season, breaking the 100-yard mark in only two of his seven games. He got banged up in the BYU loss. Injuries, inconsistent QB play and a defense that gave up 255 rushing yards to BYU have Oklahoma State on a skid that needs to end this week against Baylor.
Utah (4-3)
Preseason AP ranking: No. 11
Utah was the media’s preseason pick to win the Big 12 and for good measure. Kyle Whittingham, ranked as college football’s sixth-best coach in our preseason rankings, took Utah to back-to-back Rose Bowl appearances in 2021-22. Cam Rising was coming back for a seventh year and had an argument as the Big 12’s best quarterback. But the Rising situation has been a perplexing will-he-or-won’t-he-play mess, offensive coordinator Andy Ludwig resigned Sunday after a loss to TCU and the Utes look completely out of sorts. In a wide-open Big 12, Utah felt as good a bet as any to emerge as the conference’s playoff participant, but now there are real questions about whether it will even qualify for a bowl game.
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October 22nd
… Foe Pause …
ESPN: CU and Cincinnati “long shots” in Big 12 title race
From ESPN … We’re two weeks from the first College Football Playoff rankings of the season, and if my social media mentions are any indication, it appears people have begun to think about the endgame here.
The 2024 college football season has been a delightful mix of paradigm-shifting upsets and big games that exceeded expectations. Everyone in the SEC has lost at least once — it’s the first time that’s been the case this early in the season since 2007, and you know how much I love 2007 references — and the best unbeaten team, Oregon, ranks just fifth in SP+ and eighth in FPI.
The best teams aren’t producing the best résumés, and it’s making the playoff race both messy and delightfully inclusive. Right now the Allstate Playoff Predictor gives Iowa State (48.1%) and Boise State (46.0%) better playoff odds than Alabama (43.5%), while BYU (41.8%) is higher than Clemson (40.3%). In all, 28 teams have at least a 6% chance of making the 12-team field, including Illinois and an increasingly solid Colorado.
The final six weeks of this season, then, are going to be absolutely mad in the best possible way. Georgia’s win over Texas made the SEC race as murky as possible, the Big 12 is always just one chaotic week away from a total mess, and the two other (particularly enormous) power conferences, the Big Ten and ACC, are praying they don’t stumble into “three teams go unbeaten in conference play” scenarios.
This is a lot to keep track of! So, as November creeps ever closer on the calendar, let’s take stock. Where does each power conference race stand? Which teams are most likely to position themselves well for an at-large playoff bid? And what the heck happens if Army or Navy beats Notre Dame? Let’s dive in.
The Big 12 …
Favorites: Iowa State (30.1%), BYU (28.2%), Kansas State (26.7%)
ISU and BYU both remained unbeaten with thrilling survive-and-advance wins in Week 8: BYU survived Oklahoma State’s best performance of the season and scored the winning TD with 10 seconds left in a Friday night thriller, while ISU trailed for much of the way against UCF but also charged ahead in the final minute. The Cyclones are now 19th in SP+, and the Cougars are 22nd, and until one of them loses, the title race is pretty straightforward.
That said, three of ISU’s next five games are projected within 3.9 points, and four of BYU’s are within 7.2. The Big 12 is the ultimate parity conference, with few teams really possessing more talent than anyone else. And if or when one of them slips, it appears Kansas State might be best positioned to take advantage. Since their frustrating loss at BYU, the Wildcats have won two home blowouts and survived Colorado on the road. They’re 16th in SP+ and are projected favorites of at least 11 points in each of their next four games before a Week 14 toss-up game against Iowa State.
Fighting chance: none
There are still six teams at either 4-0 or 3-1 in conference play, but K-State, Iowa State and BYU have separated themselves enough from a quality perspective to hold a pretty solid odds advantage.
Long shots: Colorado (5.1%), Cincinnati (4.5%), Texas Tech (1.9%), TCU (1.8%)
Colorado, Cincinnati and Texas Tech are all 3-1, and while Texas Tech plummeted in SP+ following a gross blowout loss to Baylor, Colorado and Cincy have climbed to 40th and 41st, respectively, after some early-season difficulties. They play this weekend in what is basically an elimination game; Cincinnati still has to play Iowa State and Kansas State, but if Colorado were to beat the Bearcats, the Buffaloes would be extremely well-positioned to make a run at an 8-1 conference record.
Odds of 11-1 or better: BYU (42.4%), Iowa State (37.6%), Kansas State (20.5%)
On average, only one of these teams is getting to 11-1, and this is therefore still looking like a one-bid league. That doesn’t make it any less ridiculously entertaining, though.
Biggest remaining games: Cincinnati at Colorado (Oct. 26), Texas Tech at TCU (Oct. 26), Texas Tech at Iowa State (Nov. 2), Colorado at Texas Tech (Nov. 9), Cincinnati at Iowa State (Nov. 16), Cincinnati at Kansas State (Nov. 23), Kansas State at Iowa State (Nov. 30), TCU at Cincinnati (Nov. 30).
When you’ve still got seven teams with at least long-shot odds, you’ve still got a lot of huge games coming up. The long shots are pairing off this weekend, so that will pare down the contenders list moving forward.
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October 21st
… Foe Pause …
Utah offensive coordinator Andy Ludwig resigns
From ESPN … Utah offensive coordinator Andy Ludwig, who helped the team to consecutive conference championships in 2021 and 2022, has stepped down amid a second season of struggles, coach Kyle Whittingham announced Sunday night.
Ludwig, in his second stint as Utah’s offensive coordinator, had overseen the offense since 2019 after previously working there from 2005 to 2008. Whittingham didn’t immediately name a replacement.(senior offensive analyst Mike Bajakian has since been named interim offensive coordinator).
“Andy is the consummate professional and we want to thank him for his complete dedication to our program during his 10 total seasons with us,” Whittingham said in a statement. “Coach Ludwig has been instrumental to our success here at Utah and personally, I have a tremendous amount of respect and admiration for Andy as both a coach and a person.”
Utah finished 98th nationally in scoring last season and has slipped to 95th this season following Saturday’s 13-7 home loss to TCU. Top quarterback Cameron Rising missed all of the 2023 season because of a knee injury and this fall suffered a Week 2 injury to his throwing hand that eventually shut him down for the season. Backup Isaac Wilson has stepped in and completed only 54.8% of his passes with seven touchdowns and eight interceptions. Utah has lost three straight for the first time since 2017 and is averaging just 16.2 points in Big 12 play.
Ludwig, 60, provided stability and success to Utah’s offense during his two terms there, as Whittingham cycled through offensive coordinators at other times. Lugwig nearly left for the same role at Notre Dame after the 2022 season but remained at Utah. He also has coordinator experience at Vanderbilt, Wisconsin, San Diego State, Cal, Oregon and Fresno State.
Utah’s offensive staff includes veteran assistants, such as line coach Jim Harding and tight ends coach Freddie Whittingham, the brother of Kyle Whittingham. The Utes also have senior offensive analyst Mike Bajakian, most recently offensive coordinator at Northwestern and who has been a coordinator at Boston College, Tennessee and elsewhere.
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October 20th
… Foe Pause …
CU opens as a 3.5-point home favorite over Cincinnati (5-2, 3-1)
From DraftKings.com …
The Big 12 schedule for Week Nine
Saturday, October 26th
- Texas Tech at TCU … 12:30 p.m., MT, Fox … TCU is a 5.0-point home favorite …
- No. 11 BYU at UCF … 1:30 p.m., MT, ESPN … UCF is a 2.0-point home underdog …
- Oklahoma State at Baylor … 1:30 p.m., MT, ESPN+ … Baylor is a 3.5-point home favorite …
- West Virginia at Arizona … 4:00 p.m., MT, FS1 … Arizona is a 2.0-point home favorite …
- Utah at Houston … 5:00 p.m., MT, ESPN+ … Houston is a 4.0-point home underdog …
- Kansas at No. 16 Kansas State … 6:00 p.m., MT, ESPN2 … Kansas State is a 10.0-point home favorite …
- Cincinnati at Colorado … 8:15 p.m., MT, ESPN … Colorado is a 3.5-point home favorite …
- Bye weeks … No. 10 Iowa State and Arizona State …
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Oregon ascends to No. 1 in AP Top 25 (no votes for CU)
From ESPN … Oregon became the fourth team this season to hold the No. 1 ranking in The Associated Press college football poll, moving into the top spot Sunday for the first time in 12 years after Texas lost at home to Georgia.
Vanderbilt made its first appearance since the 2013 season, at No. 25, and defending national champion Michigan fell out after a second straight loss dropped it to 4-3.
Unbeaten Oregon followed its one-point home win over Ohio State with its first road shutout in 32 years, a 35-0 rout of Purdue, and received 59 of 61 first-place votes.
Georgia, which has won three straight games since its loss to Alabama, made a three-spot jump to No. 2 on the strength of its 30-15 win at previously No. 1 Texas. The Bulldogs got the other two first-place votes.
No. 3 Ohio State and No. 4 Penn State were idle Saturday and held their spots. Texas dropped to No. 5 after Georgia held the Longhorns to 28 points under their scoring average.
Miami prevailed in a wild game at Louisville and remained No. 6, and Tennessee rose four spots to No. 7 following its win over Alabama. LSU, Clemson and Iowa State rounded out the top 10.
No team this season has held the No. 1 spot for more than three straight weeks. Georgia topped the poll in the preseason, but a one-point win at unranked Kentucky in Week 3 bumped the Bulldogs out. Texas took over for two weeks then gave way to Alabama following the Crimson Tide’s win over Georgia.
Associated Press Top 25 …
- 1. Oregon (59)7-0
- 2. Georgia (2)6-1
- 3. Penn State6-0
- 4. Ohio State5-1
- 5. Texas6-1
- 6. Miami7-0
- 7. Tennessee6-1
- 8. LSU6-1
- 9. Clemson6-1
- 10. Iowa State 7-0
- 11. BYU 7-0
- 12. Notre Dame6-1
- 13. Indiana7-0
- 14. Texas A&M6-1
- 15. Alabama5-2
- 16. Kansas State 6-1
- 17. Boise State5-1
- 18. Ole Miss5-2
- 19. Pittsburgh6-0
- 20. Illinois6-1
- 21. Missouri6-1
- 22. SMU6-1
- 23. Army7-0
- 24. Navy6-0
- 25. Vanderbilt5-2
Others receiving votes … Washington State 46, Syracuse 15, UNLV 5, Duke 2, South Carolina 1, Liberty 1, Nebraska 1
2 Replies to “Big 12 Notes”
The one thing CBS omitted to say was their “experts” are really over paid dolts. Most people have to work at least twice as hard as these sports writers
There are some things that were hard to see like Rising sinking but the result was Zach Wilson’s little freshman brother who was the only egg in the basket.
Easy to see though was the defection of the KS OC and expecting 2 players to keep AZ anywhere near competent.
and of course they got blind sided by BYU….AND the Buffs
To lose by 3 points to KSU who is ranked 16th and not receive any votes is both ridiculous and a good thing. It’s ridiculous, because if the Buffs won against KSU they wouldn’t be ranked 16th and losing to a team ranked 16th by only three points should get some recognition; good because the Buffs need to be focused on their upcoming games and keep up the effort.