“T.I.P.S.” for CU v. No. 18 Kansas State

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CU v. No. 18 Kansas State: “T.I.P.S.” for CU’s first 2024 game against a ranked team

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… Related … If you prefer your predictions verbally (and from more than one voice), “CU at the Game Podcast: ‘T.I.P.S.’ for CU v. Kansas State”, can be found at Apple Podcasts, Google Podcasts, or pretty much wherever you download your favorites. Or, if you would prefer, you can listen to this week’s CU/Kansas State preview podcast here .

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The Big 12 is a mess.

In the Big 12 media preseason rankings, BYU was ranked 13th out of 16 teams; Arizona State dead last.

As the college football calendar hits mid-October, however, Arizona State is 4-1, while BYU is 5-0 … and ranked No. 14 in the nation.

Conversely, in the preseason, Oklahoma State was picked to finish third in the Big 12, picking up 14 votes as the No. 1 team in the conference. Kansas was picked to finish fourth, with five first place votes. In the preseason AP Top 25, Oklahoma State was tabbed as the nation’s No. 17 team; Kansas came in at No. 22.

Now, with the leaves turning. Oklahoma State and Kansas are a combined 0-6 in Big 12 play, with national rankings and thoughts of a Big 12 title berth a distant memory.

Which is a long way of getting around to saying that the Colorado/Kansas State game is a crap shoot.

The Wildcats are 4-1, ranked No. 18 in the country, but struggled to beat a good G5 Tulane, and had a melt down in Provo against BYU, losing 38-9.

The Buffs, of course, have had a roller coaster ride of their own, but are coming into the “Gold Rush” game having played their best game of the season, a 48-21 win over Central Florida.

Kansas State opened as a 6.5-point road favorite to beat Colorado (down to 4.5-points on some sites).

Can CU use the K-State game as a springboard to Big 12 title contention? … Or will the Wildcats put the Buffs in their place?

Let’s find out …

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This Week’s “T.I.P.S” for CU v. No. 18 Kansas State – Saturday, 8:15 p.m., MT, ESPN

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T – Talent

Two weekends ago: The Buffs faced the No. 1 passing defense in the nation, with Baylor giving up only 75 yards passing a game.

Result: Shedeur Sanders throws for 341 yards and two touchdowns, with the Buffs winning, 38-31, in overtime.

Last weekend: The Buffs faced the No. 1 rushing offense in the nation, with Central Florida averaging 375 yards rushing per game.

Result: The Buff defense held the Knights to 177 rushing yards, limiting star running back RJ Harvey to 77 yards on 16 carries in a 48-21 Colorado victory.

This weekend: The Buffs face the No. 7 rushing offense in the country, with the Wildcats going for over 257 rushing yards per game.

Result: TBD.

Junior running back DJ Giddens is averaging over 120 yards rushing per game, also 7th in the country. Giddens rushed for 187 yards and caught one pass for 22 yards in K-State’s 42-20 win over No. 20 Oklahoma State, becoming the first Wildcats player with 200 or more scrimmage yards against a ranked opponent since Tyler Lockett had 278 against No. 22 Oklahoma in 2013.

When Giddens isn’t slicing through the line, former Buff running back Dylan Edwards is in the game as a change of pace. Edwards has 201 yards (averaging 6.9 yards per carry) and two touchdowns in the first five games of the season.

But Kansas State isn’t a one-dimensional offense, relying solely on its running backs.

The Wildcat quarterback is all-everything Avery Johnson. Last season, Will Howard was the starting quarterback for the Wildcats. Howard, though, is now the starting quarterback for The Ohio State Buckeyes, having been beat out for the job at KSU by Avery Johnson.

Johnson, a sophomore, isn’t necessarily going to beat you with his arm. Johnson is completing just over 60% of his passes, going for 879 yards, nine touchdowns and four interceptions. Kansas State has yet to have a 100-yard receiver this season.

Not exactly scary numbers.

What makes Johnson is a threat is his legs. Johnson has 321 yards rushing on the season, averaging 7.3 yards per carry. In KSU’s two wins over ranked teams, Johnson had 110 yards rushing in a 31-7 rout of No. 20 Arizona, and five carries for 60 yards and two touchdowns in KSU’s 42-20 thumping of No. 20 Oklahoma State.

This is a problem for CU’s defense because … the Buffs play almost with almost exclusively man-to-man coverage. On pass plays, CU’s defensive backs have their backs turned to the line of scrimmage, so, if the CU defensive line cannot contain Johnson, he can scramble into the Buff secondary unimpeded.

Which is a long way of saying – make Kansas State throw the ball, then keep Johnson in the pocket.

What about Kansas State’s defense?

We’re now five games into the season, so some of the skewed numbers of some of the teams CU has faced so far this season are starting to dissipate.

Kansas State is 4-1, with two wins over ranked teams, with a third game against a team (BYU) currently ranked in the Top 15 in the nation.

Through five games, the Wildcats are 47th in the nation in total defense; 37th in scoring defense.

In a stat near and dear to the Buff Nation, KSU is 34th in the nation in sacks, with 12 in five games, so the CU offensive line is on notice that protection of Shedeur Sanders is again at a premium.

It’s a team game for the Kansas State defense, which was one of four teams which did not have a member of its team selected for the Preseason All-Big 12 team.

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I – Intangibles

Who has more momentum? … Colorado and Kansas State are both 4-1. Colorado and Kansas State are both coming of bye weeks. Both teams are coming off of big wins over quality Big 12 opponents.

So the real question is: Which team has spent too much time reading their press clippings?

It’s only natural for 18-22 year-olds to have a recency bias on their most recent game. The Wildcats, coming off of a humbling loss at BYU, had a Big 12 contender elimination game against No. 23 Oklahoma State, and came out with a dominating 42-20 home victory.

The Buffs, meanwhile, were coming off of a victory-stolen-from-the-jaws-of-defeat win over Baylor, and had a tough road game against undefeated Central Florida. A double-digit underdog, the Buffs silenced at least a few doubters with a 48-21 win in Orlando.

Both teams have momentum, with both coming off of their bye weeks.

The question: Which locker room is (overly) confident that they have everything figured out? And which team got back to basics this past week, trying to build upon their most recent success?

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Home, Sweet Home … Former Buff Dylan Edwards already has over half the rushing yards he had in a full season at Colorado, with 201 rushing yards (he had a total of 329 at CU last season). Edwards also had a 71-yard punt return for a touchdown against Arizona, giving KSU a lead in that game which it wouldn’t surrender.

With a bye week to prepare, it would be a surprise if the Kansas State coaching staff didn’t try and come up with something special for Edwards against his old team … and it would be a surprise if Edwards wasn’t excited about the opportunity to show up his old team.

It also wouldn’t be a surprise if there are more than a few Buff defenders who want to make sure that Edwards leaves Folsom Field this time wondering if he made the right decision.

It will be an interesting game-within-a-game to watch.

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P – Preparation/Schedule

Bye Weeks … With the quirk in the calendar, FBS teams are afforded two bye weeks this season. For both Colorado and Kansas State, bye week No. 1 came the week before playing one another.

Both teams get a chance to rest up. Both teams get a chance to heal.

Both teams get a chance to come up with new formations and plays.

Which team will take advantage?

First, if you need proof that a week off can help, I refer you to the first series of the Central Florida game. The Knights had a bye before playing the Buffs, and it helped early on. On CU’s first three plays, the Buff offense went: pass for minus-nine yards; pass for minus-one yard; interception.

Brock Huard, the Fox commentator for the game, noted that on the interception, linebacker Deshawn Pace was in a different coverage, dropping back to pick off the pass.

Which team will use its bye week to come up with a potential game-changing play?

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Looking ahead? … Both teams are coming off of bye weeks, and both teams take to the road next weekend, with the Buffs traveling to Tucson to face Arizona, while Kansas State will head east to face West Virginia. The CU game represents the first leg of a tough portion of KSU’s schedule, in which the Wildcats will play three of their next four games on the road.

Hard to believe that the Wildcats, with two weeks to prepare for the Buffs, would have any reason to be looking past the Buffs, right?

And there is certainly no reason for the Buffs, with only their second home game in six weeks, to be focusing on anything but the task immediately in front of them, the No. 18 Kansas State Wildcats.

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Previous Bye Weeks … Just for my own benefit, I took a look at CU’s most recent post bye week games.

Last season, in the first season under Coach Prime, the Buffs had their 46-43 2OT meltdown against Stanford right before the bye, then came back after the bye … and lost to No. 23 UCLA, 28-16. In 2022, CU used the bye week to fire Karl Dorrell after an 0-5 start and a 43-20 loss to Arizona … followed up after the bye with CU’s only win of the season, a 20-13 overtime win over Cal.

Dating back to 2012, CU has gone 6-6 in games following a bye, including 3-1 in the last four years.

For the record … CU has a second bye coming up after the Cincinnati game, and before traveling to face Texas Tech. The Red Raiders will have a road game against Iowa State before returning home to Lubbock to face the Buffs.

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S – Statistics 

— Penalties … The Buffs committed only three penalties (for 30 yards) in the opener against North Dakota State, but then went triple digits in yards stepped off the next two games (nine for 104 yards v. Nebraska; 12 for 115 yards v. Colorado State). Against Baylor, the Buffs were only tabbed for six penalties for 45 yards, but reverted back to form with ten penalties for 75 yards against Central Florida.

CU is 4-1, but against better teams … such numbers can prove costly. Discipline on the field continues to be elusive for Coach Prime’s Buffs.

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— Buffs’ defense really improving? … Defensively, the Buffs have been lights out in the second half, allowing a total of 26 points after intermission, with the first points allowed in the third quarter this season coming in a Central Florida touchdown. However, they’ve allowed 89 points in the first halves of the first four games, being out-scored in both the first quarter (37-35) and in the second (52-40).

CU’s total defense numbers have continued to tick up, with the Buffs up to 88th in the nation in total defense … a marked improvement from last season, to be sure, but still a work in progress.

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— Red Zone defense … Colorado’s red zone defense during its 3-game winning streak: 11 possessions, five scores allowed (45.5%), translating into three touchdowns, two field goals allowed … with five takeaways and a fourth-down stop. For the season, CU has had 21 red zone incursions, with nine touchdowns, four field goals … with eight turnovers/stops (13/21 – .619 – 7th in the nation)

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— Scoring first … The Buffs scored first against Central Florida, but if that felt like it was an anomaly, you’re right. The Travis Hunter touchdown against the Knights marked the first time the Buffs scored first in a game this season (and the first time since the Arizona game last November).

Had it not been for a Preston Hodge interception in the CU end zone on UCF’s first drive, the Buffs would likely be 0-5 in scoring first this season.

This would be a nice trend to reverse …

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Prediction … 

Bye weeks are great for players, who get a chance to heal and rejuvenate before their next game.

For fans, the bye weeks can be a mixed blessing, with an open fall Saturday leaving some of us feeling lost and out of place.

A bye week can also be a time for fans to gloss over past failures, and highlight past achievements.

You can be forgiven if you went back and watched the end of the Baylor game during the bye week, or took a little extra time to go back and watch the Buffs dominate Central Florida.

At the same time … I’m guessing few of us went back and watched the tape of the Nebraska game.

Kansas State has played two ranked teams, and a third against a team which is now the No. 14 team in the country. The Wildcats have also played a Tulane team which is a perennial pick as one of the best G5 programs in the nation.

Colorado has yet to face a ranked team, unless you want to count Nebraska’s brief stint in the Top 25 after beating the Buffs.

I would like to buy into CU’s potentially great season, but the Buffs will have to put it all together against a ranked team first before I can go all in.

I see Saturday night’s game against Kansas State as one of missed opportunities for CU, but perhaps a game which continues to build the program …

Prediction … No. 18 Kansas State 31, Colorado 27

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2024 Season (Straight up: 4-1; Against the Spread: 4-1)

• Prediction: Colorado 34, North Dakota State 20 … Actual: Colorado 31, North Dakota State 26
• Prediction: Nebraska 31, Colorado 24 … Actual: Nebraska 28, Colorado 10
• Prediction: Colorado 34, Colorado State 24 … Actual: Colorado 28, Colorado State 9
• Prediction: Colorado 27, Baylor 24 … Actual: Colorado 38, Baylor 31, OT
• Prediction: Central Florida 35, Colorado 24 … Actual: Colorado 48, Central Florida 21

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2023 Predictions … (Straight up: 8-4; Against the Spread: 7-5) …
2022 Predictions … (Straight up: 10-2; Against the Spread: 9-3) …
2021 Predictions … (Straight up: 9-3; Against the Spread: 7-5) …

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This post, about the Kansas State game, from the 2024 Season, is filed under Article.
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