“T.I.P.S.” for CU at UCF

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CU at Central Florida: “T.I.P.S.” for CU’s first ever game against UCF

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… Related … If you prefer your predictions verbally (and from more than one voice), “CU at the Game Podcast: ‘T.I.P.S.’ for CU at Central Florida”, can be found at Apple Podcasts, Google Podcasts, or pretty much wherever you download your favorites. Or, if you would prefer, you can listen to this week’s CU/UCF preview podcast here .

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The Buff Nation is certainly justified in having a hangover this week. A week after taking out rival Colorado State in style on the road, the Buffs returned to Folsom Field for an instant classic 38-31 overtime win over Baylor.

If you have been replaying the game’s final moments over and over again in your mind (and on your computer and DVR), no judgment here. It was a great and memorable win, the type of win the Buffs have not been experiencing in recent years. We have every reason to savor the unlikely come-from-behind victory.

But the Colorado coaches and players do not have that luxury. Baylor was a team which had lost ten of its last 15 games, and the game was at home. Now the Buffs face an undefeated Central Florida team which has a big, mobile quarterback, and an offense which can score in bunches.

Can the Buffs find a way to contain UCF quarterback KJ Jefferson and the Knight rushing attack, while a the same time figuring out a way to protect Shedeur Sanders?

Let’s find out …

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This Week’s “T.I.P.S” for CU at Central Florida – Saturday, 1:30 p.m., MT, Fox

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T – Talent

This may not be a good matchup for the Colorado defense.

The Buffs have been playing well on defense. Yes, Baylor scored 31 points against Colorado, but in that was a 100-yard kickoff return and a pair of long punt returns which set up ten more points. CU actually held Baylor to 314 yards of total offense and 15 first downs, the third straight time the Buffs have held an opponent under 350 yards of total offense.

The last time a CU defense held three straight opponents under 350 yards of offense? That would be the 2016 season, when Colorado went 10-4.

CU’s defense hasn’t given up a single point in the third quarter through four games this season, and only 19 points in the fourth quarter.

But the UCF offense may present the biggest challenge to the Buffs to date.

Arkansas transfer quarterback KJ Jefferson presents a real matchup problem for the Buffs. A three-year starter for Arkansas, with three 2,000-yard passing seasons under his belt, Jefferson transferred to UCF to play for quarterback guru Gus Malzahn, Thus far in three games of the 2024 season, Jefferson has completed 32-of-51 passes for 563 yards, with five touchdowns and only one interception.

The 6’3″, 247-pound Jefferson can also beat you with his legs. Jefferson has averaged almost ten carries per game, and, even with sacks figured in, has 135 rushing yards (for comparison, Shedeur Sanders, even with all of his scrambling rushing yards factored in, has netted only 10 yards rushing for the season).

While KJ Jefferson is a problem for the Buff defense, he is hardly the only one. Running back RJ Harvey has three 100-yard rushing games in as many played this fall, with 448 total rushing yards … and eight touchdowns (for comparison, CU’s leading rusher is Micah Welch, with 87 yards for the season).

Running backs Peny Boone and Myles Montgomery have between them 300 yards rushing and four more rushing scores (CU posted its first three rushing touchdowns of the season against Baylor). Overall, UCF is leading the nation in rushing yards, at over 375 yards per game.

The receiving corps is led by Kobe Hutson, a preseason first-team All Big 12 selection. Hutson has 310 receiving yards in three games, including an impressive 145 yards and two touchdowns in the Big 12 opener against TCU.

Now, these stats are padded in playing non-conference games against New Hampshire (57-3) and Sam Houston (45-14), but the road win over TCU, 35-34, was legitimate, with Jefferson throwing for three touchdowns in leading the Knights to victory in a game where they trailed 28-7 in the third quarter.

UCF’s defense is still an open question, but is led by preseason All-Big 12 defensive lineman Lee Hunter. Containing Hunter and the UCF defensive line will be job one for the Buffs’ offense, coming off an eight-sack performance against Baylor.

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I – Intangibles

Who has more momentum … Yes, the Buffs are coming off of a once-in-a-generation comeback against Baylor. A Hail Mary to tie the game, and then an unlikely fumble at the goal line in overtime to preserve the win are not plays which happen very often, much less within minutes of one another.

So, the Buffs should be riding high on their trip to Orlando, right?

Well, Central Florida is coming off a bit of a miracle finish of their own. Down 28-7 to TCU in the third quarter, the Knights rallied, taking their first lead of the game, at 35-34, on a 20-yard touchdown pass from KJ Jefferson to wide receiver Kobe Hutson with 36 seconds left. Even with that, UCF had to survive a missed TCU 58-yard field goal attempt to come away with a road victory.

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Building on success … Colorado is 3-1 on the season, and the Buffs are feeling pretty good about themselves. The thing is, last year at this time, Colorado was … 3-1. Thereafter, the Buffs went into a tailspin, losing seven of their last eight games to limp home with a 4-8 record.

This team is different, but how much different?

Last season, a midseason meltdown against Stanford, blowing a 29-0 halftime lead, sent the Buffs into a tailspin from which they did not recover.

This season, the Buffs won a game against Baylor they had no business winning (at least late in the fourth quarter, when ESPN’s Game probability index had Baylor at a 99% chance of winning).

Will the Baylor game be a catalyst for good days to come, or an omen that the Buffs are going to struggle even teams considered to be near the bottom of the Big 12?

We’ll see …

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Home, Sweet Home … The current forecast for the CU game at Central Florida is for 88-degrees and a 58% chance of thunderstorms. With a 3:30 p.m., local time kickoff, the game sounds like one which will be hot and humid.

Not exactly a typical game for Colorado … at least for its fans.

The Colorado roster, meanwhile, has 21 players from Texas, 18 from Florida, and 14 from Georgia (not to mention players from Alabama, Louisiana, and Mississippi).

Here’s guessing that those players have participated in a game or two when the conditions were hot and humid.

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P – Preparation/Schedule

Home, Sweet Home, Part II … The Buffs haven’t left the state of Colorado for three weeks, playing in Ft. Collins two weeks ago before hosting Baylor last weekend. The trip to Orlando will be the longest of the season for the Buffs, and the first ever contest against UCF.

While the Buffs were playing well into the night against Baylor on Saturday, though, the Knights were home with their feet up, watching the Buffs play. The Knights had a bye week this past weekend … the only time all year in which the Buffs will face an opponent who has a bye week while the Buffs are playing (CU’s bye week is coming up next, with both the Buffs and their opponent, Kansas State, getting a bye week before they face one another).

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Looking ahead? … It would seem odd that a team which has the Fox Big Noon Saturday show in town, is playing Colorado for the first time, and has been preparing for its Big 12 season opener … would be looking past this game.

But … Next weekend Central Florida faces Florida in Gainesville. The Gators, in case you haven’t been doing deep dives into SEC drama, have a coach, Billy Napier, who is on the hottest seat in the FBS coaching fraternity. Florida is 2-2 on the season, but was crushed in its opener at home by Miami, 41-17, and still has four top teams (Texas, Georgia, Tennessee and Ole Miss, not to mention No. 14 LSU). It could be over sooner than later for Napier, especially if he loses to a Central Florida which Florida fans would consider to be its little brother … or worse.

On the other side of the field, the Knights would like nothing more than to take out Florida on its home field, and be the cause for the Gators firing their coach. On Central Florida’s roster of over 100 players (including walk-ons), I counted over 70 players hailing from the state of Florida … many of whom weren’t not offered by Florida.

The Knights will be gunning for the Gators … will that have any affect on their preparations for the Buffs? Will UCF’s biggest game of the season, coming next Saturday, mean more than to the Knights than beating a Colorado team they have never faced?

Perhaps not, but human nature can never be discounted.

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S – Statistics 

— Penalties … The Buffs committed only three penalties (for 30 yards) in the opener against Northern Colorado, but then went triple digits in yards stepped off the next two games (nine for 104 yards v. Nebraska; 12 for 115 yards v. Colorado State). Against Baylor, the Buffs were only tabbed for six penalties for 45 yards, it certainly seemed Saturday night that the Buffs had a significant number of penalties … and at bad times. Colorado is 98th in the nation in penalties per game, and 114th in penalty yards. As Big 12 play ramps up, these are mistakes which cannot continue to be made.

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— Buffs’ defense really improving? … Defensively, the Buffs have been lights out in the second half, allowing a total of 19 points after intermission, with no points allowed in the third quarter. However, they’ve allowed 75 points in the first halves of the first four games. CU’s total defense numbers have continued to tick up, with the Buffs up to 79th in the nation in total defense … a marked improvement from last season, but still a work in progress.

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— Offensive balance … Colorado had 42 rushing attempts against Baylor, but nothing close to a rushing attack Buff fans have been hoping for. Of the 42 official attempts, 19 were by Shedeur Sanders, including eight sacks and about as many scrambles. The CU running backs only touched the ball 21 times (remember last week, when I said CU needed to have 20 rushes from its running backs to win … well, they cut that close, not going over 20 until overtime). Micah Welch and Isaiah Augustave did have 63 yards on those 21 carries. Better, but only marginally. If CU can’t find a running game, Shedeur Sanders will continue to spend the rest of the season running for his life. CU is 130th in the nation in sacks allowed, giving up an average of four per game (which would calculate to 48 for the season, right about where the Buffs were last season).

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Prediction … 

Colorado has 275 total yards rushing in four games.

Central Florida is averaging 375 yards rushing per game.

Full stop.

Granted, the Knights have only had to play one true opponent in their first three games, and the stats are padded, but its certainly a cautionary tale for the Buffs that Central Florida looks to, and has the ability to, control a game on the ground.

Can the Buff defense rise to the challenge?

Can the Colorado offense protect Shedeur long enough to take advantage of UCF’s average defense?

This game has the looks of a shootout, and the well rested Knights will be playing at home.

Colorado is a two-touchdown underdog, opening as 13.5-point underdogs at DraftKings sportsbook. I can see the Buffs keeping it closer than that, but there are too many variables working against the Buffs for a road upset. CU fans are riding a high this week after the Baylor miracle, but the fact is that the Buffs shouldn’t have needed a miracle to beat Baylor at home.

The Buffs will again provide highlights, and again provide moments of frustration. This weekend, frustration wins out …

Prediction … Central Florida 35, Colorado 24

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2024 Season (Straight up: 4-0; Against the Spread: 3-1)

• Prediction: Colorado 34, North Dakota State 20 … Actual: Colorado 31, North Dakota State 26
• Prediction: Nebraska 31, Colorado 24 … Actual: Nebraska 28, Colorado 10
• Prediction: Colorado 34, Colorado State 24 … Actual: Colorado 28, Colorado State 9
• Prediction: Colorado 27, Baylor 24 … Actual: Colorado 38, Baylor 31, OT

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2023 Predictions … (Straight up: 8-4; Against the Spread: 7-5) …
2022 Predictions … (Straight up: 10-2; Against the Spread: 9-3) …
2021 Predictions … (Straight up: 9-3; Against the Spread: 7-5) …

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This post, about the Central Florida game, from the 2024 Season, is filed under Article.
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