“T.I.P.S.” for CU v. NDSU

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CU v. North Dakota State: “T.I.P.S.” for the 2024 Season Opener

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… Related … If you prefer your predictions verbally (and from more than one voice), “CU at the Game Podcast: “T.I.P.S.” for CU v. North Dakota State, can be found at Apple Podcasts, Google Podcasts, or pretty much wherever you download your favorites. Or, if you would prefer, you can listen to this week’s CU/NDSU preview podcast here .

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North Dakota State ranks No. 2 in HERO Sports’ FCS Preseason Top 25. The Bison finished 11-4 last year, advancing to the FCS semifinals before losing 31-29 at Montana in double-overtime.

North Dakota State has a new head coach, Tim Polasek, who is returning to Fargo from a stint as the offensive coordinator at Wyoming. Polasek replaces Matt Entz, who left for an assistant’s position at USC. Entz didn’t leave the cupboard bare, however, with 27 seniors returning for the Bison.

And, as I’m sure you’ve heard ad nauseum, North Dakota State has a long history of knocking off FBS schools, winning six straight between 2010 and 2022, narrowly losing its most recent game against an FBS team, falling to Arizona, 31-28, two seasons ago.

The line on the game opened with Colorado about a 6.5-point favorite over North Dakota State. The line has since moved to 9.5. With an over/under for points scored at 58.5, Vegas is looking for a final score in the neighborhood of Colorado 34, North Dakota State 25.

Is Vegas right? Will the Buffs be able to overcome first game jitters and a motivated FCS power?

Let’s find out …

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This Week’s “T.I.P.S” for CU v. North Dakota State – Thursday, 6:00 p.m., MT, ESPN

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T – Talent

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North Dakota State loses three starters on the offensive line, its top running back, and its top two wide receivers. But the offense will be in good hands at the most important position, with quarterback Cam Miller, a preseason second-team FCS All-American, returning for a fifth season.

Miller has 6,470 career passing yards, 48 touchdowns to 15 interceptions, 1,646 yards rushing, and 36 rushing touchdowns. He had his best season last fall, owning PFF’s highest offensive grade for an FCS quarterback while his 169.1 passing efficiency was No. 2 in the subdivision.

The Bison ranked No. 4 in 2023 FCS rushing offense, averaging 237.3 yards per game. The quarterback run game is worthy of concern, as Miller had 629 yards rushing and 13 scores. The leading rusher from last year, TaMerik Williams (767 yards, 8 touchdowns) is gone with Barika Kpeenu (501 yards, 4 TDs) and TK Marshall (386 yards, 6 TDs) looking to elevate their play. Preseason All-American fullback Hunter Brozio, though, was injured during Fall Camp and is lost for the season.

With Zach Mathis graduating and Eli Green transferring to Iowa State, the Bison lose their top two receivers. RaJa Nelson (31 catches last year for 388 yards and two touchdowns) and Braylon Henderson (16 catches, 280 yards, one score) provide some experience, but there isn’t much production after them.

But for North Dakota State, it all starts up front. The Bison routinely own one of the best offensive lines in the FCS, a consistent factory of NFL-level talent. This may be its biggest reloading project in years, though. The Bison return two solid starters, but there are questions after that … which could be good news for CU’s revamped defensive line.

While the NDSU offense will try and play keep-away, and shorten the game with long, time-consuming possessions, the defense may be the strength of the team.

The Bison return nine players who started at least seven games last year, including its top four tacklers. NDSU has stars at all three levels, but their backend took a big hit this fall. All-American safety Cole Wisniewski, the highest-graded FCS safety in 2023, has yet to practice. An off-season foot surgery may keep Wisniewski off the field for not only the CU game, but perhaps the season.

Defensive end Dylan Hendricks, linebacker Logan Kopp, and defensive tackle Eli Mostaert have all received All-American and All-conference preseason accolades for a defense which was in the top ten nationally in most defensive categories last fall.

The defensive line will be stout, and it will be a challenge for Colorado to establish a running game. The game within the game could be whether the Buffs can get its running backs going … or whether the Buffs will try and control the game by  taking advantage deep, with the Bison short its All-American safety.

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I – Intangibles

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The North Dakota State home stadium – the FargoDome – has a capacity of 18,700.

The most-watched North Dakota State game last season was the Bison’s win over South Dakota, which had an ABC audience of 1.09 million.

The Colorado home stadium – Folsom Field – has a capacity of 50, 183.

The average television audience for a Colorado game last fall was just over six million, topping out at over 10 million for the Colorado State game.

The CU/North Dakota State game was moved to a Thursday night to maximize exposure for the game. The only other game that night to challenge the Coach Prime show is North Carolina at Minnesota, which will be aired on Fox.

Understatement of the Week – This will be the largest crowd to watch North Dakota State play this fall, and the largest television audience.

While Buff players and fans have grown accustomed to the crowds and media attention which comes with the CU program under Coach Prime, this is a new frontier for the players on the North Dakota State side of the ball.

This could be an advantage for the Bison, who are looking to make a name for themselves and their school before a national television audience … Or it could prove to be too big a stage for an FCS program with a new head coach.

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P – Preparation/Schedule

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Both teams have had a month to prepare for the season opener, but it’s not a stretch to say that this is a bigger game for the Bison than it is for the Buffs.

While Colorado has a huge game the following week – taking on revenge-minded Nebraska in a game which will again be shown to a national prime time television audience – North Dakota State doesn’t have the same look-ahead issues.

Following the game against the Buffs, the Bison return home to Fargo to face … drum roll … the Tennessee State Tigers (a team which last year lost to Notre Dame … 56-3).

The Buff Nation is all too familiar with the trick plays and new formations which Colorado State used to game plan for the Rocky Mountain Showdown when the Buffs had to play the Rams as a season opener.

Ready for an onsides kick? A fake punt? Reverses? Halfback passes? Going for it on fourth down?

While playing outside the box is not really NDSU’s style, it would actually be more of a surprise if the Bison didn’t try some tricks … How well will the Buffs handle the unexpected?

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If the Buffs are upset by the Bison, there will inevitably be claims that CU’s players were overlooking North Dakota State.

If that happens, Coach Prime has some explaining to do.

Coach Prime came to Colorado from Jackson State, another FCS program. A vocal spokesperson for the FCS in general (and HBCU programs in particular), the last thing you would think Coach Prime would do would be to take an FCS program for granted.

CU fans certainly hope that proves to be the case.

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S – Statistics 

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— Sacks … Last season, the Colorado offensive line allowed 56 sacks, ranking the Buffs 129th in the nation. Meanwhile, in CU’s future conference, the Baylor Bears ranked last in the Big 12 last season in sacks allowed … with 34.

Yes, Virginia, the CU offensive line last season was that bad.

Now, you can make the argument that some of last year’s sacks were due to Shedeur Sanders hanging onto the ball too long, and you can make the argument that this year’s offensive line is much improved over last season.

But … until the 2024 version of the offensive line proves it can hold up against an opponent’s pass rush, there will be questions about how much the line has improved.

On the other side of the ball, eyes will be on the CU defensive line as well. The upgrade along the line was one of the highlights of CU’s off-season. As noted above, North Dakota State returns only two offensive lineman from last season, but the Bison have plenty of home-grown talent in the pipeline. Still, this will be one of the most getable lines CU will face this fall.

If the Buffs can’t get to the North Dakota State quarterback … what will that tell CU fans about the rest of the season?

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— North Dakota State v. the rest of the nation … Saturday, Montana State beat New Mexico. Last season, Sacramento State beat Stanford. The year before, Southern Illinois took out Northwestern. The year before that, Jacksonville State beat Florida State, Northern Arizona beat Arizona, and Montana upset No. 20 Washington.

And yes, North Dakota State has had more than its share of upsets, winning six straight over FBS teams (including a win over No. 11 Iowa) before falling to Arizona in 2022, 31-28.

Does that mean that North Dakota State will take down another FBS team?

Not necessarily.

The Bison teams which routinely took down FBS opponents had future NFL quarterbacks at the helm (Carson Wentz, Trey Lance) and future FBS head coaches on the headset (Craig Bohl, head coach at Wyoming, 2014-23; Chris Klieman, head coach at Kansas State, 2019-present).

Tim Polasek, who has a dozen years under his belt as a assistant coach at North Dakota State under his belt, certainly has the blue print for success in Fargo. Cam Miller has excellent statistics, and the Bison will contend for conference and national championships this fall … but this NDSU team is still a work in progress.

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— 3 … 2 … 1 … Or, better stated: 300; 200; 100.

If … Colorado doesn’t have at least 300 yards passing and 100 yards rushing … Buff fans might be stressing Thursday night.

Or … If … North Dakota State has more than 200 yards rushing … Buff fans might be muttering under their breath leaving Folsom Field.

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Prediction … 

Joel Klatt has been leading the charge for Coach Prime and CU’s chances in 2024:

“Last year, Colorado played six games against opponents, and got blown out in only one of those games. They were in one-score game in the fourth quarter of the other five. Nobody wants to talk about that. Everyone just wants to throw dirt on this program … I believe that Colorado was better than most people believed they were last year … They go to a bowl game easy. I see at least eight wins for this program”.

But Klatt has been in the minority, as the general consensus among the national pundits is that the Coach Prime experiment is not working, and that CU ’24 is not all that different from CU ’23, a team which was in the 100s in most statistical categories, and enters Coach Prime’s second season on a six-game losing streak.

For every Joel Klatt talking up the Buffs, there are a dozen naysayers who can’t wait for Coach Prime and Colorado to fail.

If you are like me, you are soooo ready for the season to start.

Colorado has a more talented lineup than does North Dakota State.

Colorado will be at home, before a sell-out (or near sell-out) crowd.

Coach Prime will be on the national stage, and Coach Prime thrives on the national stage.

There will be stress for Buff fans come Thursday night (hell, considering what happened against Stanford last season, even if the Buffs are up 29-0 at halftime, I’ll be nervous), and it wouldn’t be a surprise if the Bison play well early. With a month to prepare and a locker room full of players with chips on their shoulders, the Bison will be well-motivated.

But the Buffs have had nine months of hearing about their 1-8 record in Pac-12 play last fall, and CU’s six-game losing streak to close out Coach Prime’s first year. The Buffs locker room should also be full of players with chips on their shoulder, and the Buffs should be well-motivated.

If the Buffs are going bowling this fall, this is a must-win. There is enough offense to out-score North Dakota State, and enough defense to make the second half less stressful.

Go Buffs! …

Prediction … Colorado 34, North Dakota State 20

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• 2023 Predictions … (Straight up: 8-4; Against the Spread: 7-5) …
• 2022 Predictions … (Straight up: 10-2; Against the Spread: 9-3) …
• 2021 Predictions … (Straight up: 9-3; Against the Spread: 7-5) … 

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This post, about the North Dakota State game, from the 2024 Season, is filed under Article.
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