Big 12 Preview – Part Two

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Big 12 Preview – Part Two

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The college football season is upon us, with Fall Camps in full swing. CU’s opener against North Dakota State is now less than three weeks away.

Before we get completely CU-centric, let’s take a look at how the Big 12 race may shake out. If you want to take a listen to our in-depth team-by-team discussion of the conference race, the CU at the Game Podcast, “Big 12 Preview: Our Team-by-Team Projections for the 2024 Season” can be found here.

In reviewing CU’s 15 rivals in the new-and-improved Big 12, I have put teams into four categories:

– Tier One: A team which is a Big 12 title contender, and a likely Top 25 team nationally;
– Tier Two: A solid team, and a likely bowl participant, but a team with a flaw or two which will prevent them from threatening to win the league;
– Tier Three: A team with bowl aspirations, where the Strive for Six is the main goal, a goal which obtainable if the season plays out as projected; and
– Tier Four: A team going through a rebuilding season. You can squint at the schedule and perhaps find six wins and a bowl bid, but a losing season is the most likely outcome.

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“Big 12 Preview – Part One”, A look at the first eight Big 12 teams (at least alphabetically, being Arizona, Arizona State, Baylor, BYU, Central Florida, Cincinnati, Colorado and Houston), can be found here.

Now, onto the second eight …

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Iowa State 

Picked 6th in the Big 12 preseason media poll … Athlon: 7th in the Big 12/29th nationally … Lindy’s: 6th/24th

… USA Today Preseason coaches poll: t-35th (in “others receiving votes”) …

Last season, Iowa State did what Iowa State does … won most of the games it was supposed to, and lost most of the games it was supposed to. The result? A 7-6 record, with a bowl loss to Memphis.

Head coach Matt Campbell was the darling of the national media a few years ago, and was considered for any number of more prominent programs (including Nebraska). After a few mediocre years, though, Campbell has since settled in on being one of the most successful coaches in Cyclone history … with a 53-48 overall record.

ISU currently ranks first nationally in returning production. Quarterback Rocco Becht is back after throwing for 3,120 yards and 23 touchdowns. Running back Abu Sama, who rushed for 276 yards and three scores against Kansas State, will run behind a huge line (average size: 6-foot-6, 323 pounds) that returns all five starters.

If Campbell’s Cyclones improve as projected and figure out what they did to offend the god of close games — they’ve won just three of their past 16 one-score finishes — they are absolute Big 12 contenders.

What gives me pause … the schedule.

Schedule … Difficult. Non-conference games include a home opener against North Dakota (which beat North Dakota State last fall), and Iowa in the Cy-Hawk annual grudge match. The Cyclones do miss Oklahoma State and Arizona, but do have to face all three of the other top teams – Kansas, Kansas State and Utah – and must face all three contenders on the road.

v. Colorado … The former Big Seven, Big Eight and Big 12 rivals won’t face each other until the Cyclones come to Boulder in the 2025 season.

Rating … Tier Two … There are reasons to include Iowa State as one of the top six teams in the conference, including all of that returning production. The main reason for not including the Cyclones in Tier One here is having three tough road conference games against the top teams in the Big 12. Two or three losses in those games will keep Iowa State from a run at the Big 12 title game.

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Kansas

Picked 4th in the Big 12 preseason media poll … Athlon: 4th in the Big 12/21st nationally … Lindy’s: 3rd/20th

… USA Today Preseason coaches poll: 24th …

The overall record of head coach Lance Leipold (fourth year, 17-21 overall) is misleading, as Leipold took over a program in as bad a shape as what Coach Prime inherited. In the 10 years before Leipold arrived at Kansas, the Jayhawks had a 0.154 win percentage — even lower than Kansas State’s devastating late-1980s lows.

This could well be the Year-of-the-Jayhawk. Seven of 11 projected starters on defense are seniors; eight of 11 projected starters on defense are seniors, and we haven’t yet mentioned quarterback Jalon Daniels. If Daniels can remain healthy (and Kansas went 9-4 largely without him), the Jayhawks could be one of the Big 12’s most complete teams.

Giving pause on the roster is the defense, with only one starter on the defensive line weighing in at over 300 pounds, with all of the linebackers at 230 pounds or lighter. Teams which can play smashmouth football could take advantage.

Schedule … Odd. Kansas will play 12 games away from Lawrence this fall, with its six “home” games played in Kansas City while the home stadium is redone. After playing a program named Lindenwood (the Lindenwood Lions, of the Big South Division of the Ohio Valley Conference, in case you are wondering, Kansas steps up its level of competition by playing Illinois and UNLV. The rest of the schedule is heavenly … no Arizona … no Oklahoma State … no Utah … in fact, while CU plays all five Big 12 teams ranked in the preseason Coaches Top 25, Kansas plays only Kansas State. Only three of KU’s nine conference games are against teams which had winning records in 2023

v. Colorado … The former Big Seven, Big Eight and Big 12 rivals will play each other at Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City on November 23rd, KU’s Senior Day.

Rating … Tier One … Kansas has a quality quarterback, 15 senior starters, and a schedule which built for a title game run. This isn’t your grandfather’s Kansas Jayhawks. This team could be the Big 12’s representative in the College Football Playoff.

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Kansas State

Picked 2nd in the Big 12 preseason media poll … Athlon: 2nd in the Big 12/17th nationally … Lindy’s: 4th/21st

… USA Today Preseason coaches poll: 17th …

Kansas State went 9-4 in 2023, but the season was close to perfection. All four losses were by one score, and included a loss to Missouri on a last-second 60-yard field goal, and an overtime loss to Texas.

Over the past three seasons, Kansas State has won 27 games. Tasked with finding a successor for Bill Snyder, the man who, in two different tenures, basically ranked as the best and second-best coach in school history, Kansas State somehow landed someone up for the task. After going 12-11 in his first two seasons, Chris Klieman has established cruising altitude.

It feels like the 2024 K-State team might have a bit higher ceiling, and a bit lower floor, than recent iterations. The offense will be led by quarterback Avery Johnson, who was good enough to beat out Will Howard for the job – with Howard transferring to be the starting quarterback for No. 2 Ohio State. With talent at the skill positions (including CU transfer running back Dylan Edwards), the Wildcats hope to build on an attack which was already 10th in the nation in scoring offense last season.

That the Wildcats return 13 of the 18 defenders who saw 300-plus snaps last season suggests maybe they’ll be very good on defense as well.

Schedule … A tricky first half. After opening against the UT-Martin Skyhawks, the Wildcats go on the road to face Tulane (vying for a G5 slot in the CFP) and return home on a Friday night to face Arizona in a non-conference game. Kansas State will also have a huge game at home against Oklahoma State before getting a bye week to prepare for Colorado. If the Wildcats get through the first half of the season unscathed, only a home game against Kansas will be a challenge on KSU’s run to a Big 12 title game.

v. Colorado … The 67th game in the series (CU leads overall, 45-20-1) will be played in Boulder on October 12th. The “Gold Rush” game will come after both teams take a week off to prepare.

Rating … Tier One … Kansas State misses Utah and Arizona in Big 12 (though the Wildcats – KSU – will play the Wildcats – Arizona – in a non-conference game in September), and get both Oklahoma State and Kansas at home. A November schedule of Houston, Arizona State, Cincinnati and Iowa State could well be a prelude to a title run.

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Oklahoma State

Picked 3rd in the Big 12 preseason media poll … Athlon: 3rd in the Big 12/19th nationally … Lindy’s: 1st/12th

… USA Today Preseason coaches poll: 18th …

Mike Gundy has been either a quarterback, assistant coach or head coach on 33 of the past 38 Oklahoma State football teams, a list that includes six of the nine best Cowboys teams of all time (in chronological order: 1988, 2008, 2010, 2011, 2012 and 2017). You just don’t see that in modern-day college football.

They head into 2024 ranked third in returning production, with the best running back in the country (Ollie Gordon) and a defensive coordinator moving past some growing pains. (Bryan Nardo jumped from Division II Gannon to OSU in 2023.) It sure feels like another wave could be on the way.

Is Alan Bowman, back for his seventh season of college football, a playoff-worthy quarterback? The rest of the offense is well set, and the defense needs to improve (122nd in total defense) for the Cowboys to return to the Big 12 championship game for the second consecutive year.

Schedule … Front loaded. As much attention as pundits are paying to Colorado having to play perennial FCS power North Dakota State, its Oklahoma State which must open against two-time defending FCS champions South Dakota State (which will come to Stillwater on a 29-game winning streak). Games against SEC’s Arkansas and at Tulsa might be easier than the game against the Jackrabbits. Oklahoma State will either be the favorite – or almost out of the race – after opening Big 12 play with games against Utah and at Kansas State. The second half of the season only has one game against a team which finished with a winning record in 2023 (at home against 7-6 Texas Tech).

v. Colorado … Oklahoma State joined the Big Seven for the 1960 season to create the Big 8. The teams last played in the 2016 Alamo Bowl, with the Cowboys mauling the Buffs, 38-8. This year’s reunion will kickoff in Boulder at 10:00 a.m., MT, on the Black Friday of Thanksgiving weekend.

Rating … Tier One … When your three toughest games include a game against an FCS team, it’s not a bad schedule. Oklahoma State made it to the Big 12 Championship game last year, and has to be considered one of the favorites to return to Arlington this December. If the Cowboys had Avery Johnson, Cam Rising, Jalon Daniels or even Noah Fifita (or Shedeur Sanders) at quarterback, Oklahoma State would be a heavy favorite to win the league. As it is, the Cowboys may go as far as All-American running back Ollie Gordon can carry them.

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TCU

Picked 10th in the Big 12 preseason media poll … Athlon: 8th in the Big 12/43rd nationally … Lindy’s: 10th/47th

… USA Today Preseason coaches poll: NR

Sonny Dykes inherited a team that had won 16 games in three years and proceeded to win 18 in two. So things are looking up, yeah? What, did TCU go 7-6 in the first year, then jump up to 9-4 or something? A couple of solid seasons with hope for a breakthrough in Year 3?

Not so much. The Frogs have become the poster children for (a) how volatile rosters can become in the portal era and (b) how fickle the god of close games can be. Thanks in part to some key portal additions, TCU rode a 6-1 record in one-score finishes to a 13-2 record and a shocking CFP National Championship appearance. Facing major turnover, Dykes took on another solid batch of transfers last season, but TCU slipped a bit and also went 0-4 in one-score games. The result: a wild swing from 13-2 to 5-7.

In a conference with a number of quality quarterbacks, TCU spent the spring trying to figure out who its starter would be. Returning starter Josh Hoover is the likely starter, but Vanderbilt transfer Ken Seals may see the field sooner rather than later.

The TCU defense gave up almost 28 points per game last season, with Sonny Dykes bring in former Boise State head coach Andy Avalos to switch out last year’s 3-3-5 defense for a 4-2-5 look. The Horned Frogs return only five starters from a defense which was 100th in total defense last season.

Schedule … Want to win a bar bet? Ask your friends which team in the Big 12 will play two teams from the ACC this non-conference season. And to make it even more maddening … show them each Big 12 team’s schedule. Only the most savvy college football fan will notice that TCU plays Stanford and SMU in non-conference play, and realize that the Cardinal and the Mustangs are both ACC teams.

In Big 12 play, TCU misses only Kansas State among the ranked Big 12 teams, and will have to play both Kansas and Utah on the road.

v. Colorado … After a home-and-home against the Buffs the past two seasons, TCU will get a break from the Prime Show for a season, with the Buffs returning to Fort Worth for the 2025 season.

Rating … Tier Three … TCU, along with Texas Tech, Colorado, and perhaps a few other Big 12 teams, fit right in the messy middle of the Big 12. It’s not difficult to see a path to six wins and a bowl bid for the Horned Frogs, but it’s also not difficult to find seventh potential losses from their schedule, and a second consecutive 5-7 campaign.

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Texas Tech

Picked 9th in the Big 12 preseason media poll … Athlon: 9th in the Big 12/44th nationally … Lindy’s: 8th/41st

… USA Today Preseason coaches poll: t-43rd …

Like TCU, above, Texas Tech is a poster child for a fair-to-middling Big 12 team. The Red Raiders finished the 2023 regular season 6-6, with a few good wins (like 16-13 over Kansas) and a few bad losses (like 57-7 to Texas). The offense (national rankings in major statistics between 59th and 64th the country) and defense (national rankings between 61st and 84th) were all mediocre to slightly below mediocre.

Returning starting quarterback Behren Morton doesn’t strike fear into opposing defensive coordinators, the Red Raiders do have a quality running back in Tahj Brooks, who went for over 1,500 yards and ten touchdowns last season. The issue for Brooks – the offensive line has a new coach and four transfers starting.

The defense returns only three starters, but one of them was a freshman All-American, linebacker Ben Roberts, who led the team with 107 tackles.

Schedule … God, it would be great if CU had Texas Tech’s September … The Red Raiders have one road game, at decimated Washington State. Otherwise, it’s four home games: Abilene Christian; North Texas; Arizona State; and Cincinnati.

Texas Tech does have second half road games against Arizona, Iowa State, and Oklahoma State, but this is a schedule built for a team to get back to six wins and a bowl game.

v. Colorado … The teams will match up in Lubbock on November 9th. The Buffs will be coming off of a bye, and may be looking for a November win to help get to six wins. The Red Raiders will be returning home after a road game against Iowa State … and may have already wrapped up bowl eligibility.

Rating … Tier Two … Again, a messy middle team, but when you can tick off four of five wins before the calendar turns to October, it’s hard not to see the Red Raiders as a bowl team.

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Utah

Picked 1st in the Big 12 preseason media poll … Athlon: 1st in the Big 12/14th nationally … Lindy’s: 2nd/16th

… USA Today Preseason coaches poll: 13th …

Kyle Whittingham’s Utes did not three-peat as Pac-12 champions last year. It said something, though, about their high floor that they still won eight games while failing to hit 21 points six times. The loss of quarterback Cam Rising, tight end Brant Kuithe, running back Micah Bernard and a host of other players was, in the end, too much to overcome.

That said, Utah still lost four of their last six games, and were a drive away from losing to a CU team led by backup quarterback Ryan Staub in the regular season finale. After two titles and three seasons with double-digit wins, 2023 was – hopefully for Ute fans – an aberration.

If Rising gets hurt, though, it could be a repeat of the 2023 campaign. The defense is once again solid, and the offense will go as far as Rising can take it.

Schedule … Another team CU would love to trade non-conference schedules with, as Utah doesn’t leave the state before the start of Big 12 play. A non-conference slate of Southern Utah, Baylor (as a non-conference game) and Utah State should have Utah undefeated and a top ten team nationally heading into a September 21st game at Oklahoma State. A win against the Cowboys, followed by a win over Arizona at home to close out September, and the Utes may coast to the Big 12 title game. Utah somehow misses both Kansas schools, and plays only one team in the final seven games (Iowa State, at home) which finished the 2023 season with a winning record.

v. Colorado … For the first time in 13 years, Utah and Colorado will not face one another on Thanksgiving weekend. Utah will travel to Folsom Field on November 16th, with the Utes finishing the 2024 campaign in sunny Florida against UCF on Black Friday.

Rating … Tier One … With Utah’s overall talent, recent history, and easier-than-almost-everyone else schedule, it would be a surprise if the Utes don’t win at least ten games this fall. If Rising is back to 2022 form, Utah could well be the Big 12’s top representative in the College Football Playoff.

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West Virginia

Picked 7th in the Big 12 preseason media poll … Athlon: 6th in the Big 12/26th nationally … Lindy’s: 7th/30th

… USA Today Preseason coaches poll: 33rd …

You’re not fired until you’re fired. Neal Brown entered 2023 just 22-25 as West Virginia’s head coach, having finished only one season over .500 (6-4 in the 2020 COVID season). It was a bit of an upset when he earned a fifth season on the job, and it was fair to assume that 2023 would be his final year. They pulled efficiency from their run game and big plays from the pass, and they remained one of the nation’s most aggressive fourth-down teams (eighth in go rate and sixth in points after fourth-down conversions). They bounced from 5-7 to 9-4 and earned Brown an upset of a contract extension.

What to expect of the 2024 Mountaineers? Few are expecting another nine-win season, but West Virginia is consistently found just outside the Top 25 in most preseason polls. The offense returns seven starters, including quarterback Garrett Greene and a running back tandem of of Jahiem White and CJ Donaldson, who combined for over 1,500 yards rushing in leading WVU to the No. 3 rushing attack in the nation. The defense, which was mediocre to fair in 2023, and returns only five starters.

Schedule … A dream non-conference schedule … at least for the West Virginia fan base. The Mountaineers will play both of its longtime rivals, Penn State and Pitt, this September, with the Backyard Brawl against the Panthers on the road. With a home game against Kansas and a road game against Oklahoma State to open Big 12 play, the conference will know very early if West Virginia is for real. If the Mountaineers can keep the train on the tracks until November, WVU only has to play one team with a winning record (Texas Tech) in the final four games.

v. Colorado … Colorado and West Virginia have met only twice, with the teams each winning their home games in a 2008/2009 series. The teams will meet again in Morgantown in 2025, with the Mountaineers not returning to Boulder until 2027.

Rating … Tier Two … As with many teams in messy middle of the Big 12, West Virginia has talent to be a Tier Two team, but has a schedule which might push the Mountaineers into Tier Three. There are tough road games against rival Pitt, Oklahoma State and a long trip to Arizona. Home games against Penn State, Kansas, and Kansas State won’t be easy, either. I see West Virginia as a bowl team, but it may come down to the last games in November to get there.

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A recap: 

– Tier One (Big 12 title contenders): Kansas; Kansas State; Oklahoma State; Utah
– Tier Two (Bowl-bound, but too flawed for a title run): Arizona; Central Florida; Iowa State; Texas Tech; West Virginia
– Tier Three (A Bowl is the goal; looking for six wins): Colorado; TCU
– Tier Four (A rebuilding year): Arizona State; Baylor; BYU; Cincinnati; Houston

My vote for the two teams who will play for the Big 12 title in Arlington on December 7th

— Utah and Kansas State

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Compare … 2024 Big 12 Football Media Preseason Poll

1. Utah (20) 906
2. Kansas State (19) 889
3. Oklahoma State (14) 829
4. Kansas (5) 772
5. Arizona (3) 762
6. Iowa State 661
7. West Virginia 581
8. UCF 551
9. Texas Tech 532
10. TCU 436
11. Colorado 400
12. Baylor 268
13. BYU 215
14. Cincinnati 196
15. Houston 157
16. Arizona State 141

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