CU at No. 17 TCU: “T.I.P.S.” for Coach Prime’s Debut

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CU at No. 17 TCU: “T.I.P.S.” for Coach Prime’s Debut

… Related … If you prefer your predictions verbally, “CU at the Game Podcast: “T.I.P.S.” for CU at No. 17 TCU, can be found at Apple Podcasts, Google Podcasts, or pretty much wherever you download your favorites. Or, if you would prefer, you can find the podcast here.

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It’s been an incredible nine-month ride for the Buff Nation.

There were the “Will he or won’t he?” stressful days in early December, when the Buff Nation was on pins and needles, waiting for Coach Prime to make his move to Boulder official.

Then … There was the “Louis” luggage comment when Coach Prime met the team for the first time … Then there were the “Will Travis Hunter follow Coach Prime?” days … Then the “Will Cormani McClain actually sign with CU?” days  … The exodus of players from the Champions center in December … The Top 25 Recruiting Class … The sold out Spring Game … The mass exodus the week after the Spring game.

It then became the summer of “It can’t be done” from all of the national pundits, with the naysayers saying that the overhaul of the lineup wouldn’t make any difference. Vegas put the over/under win total at 3.5. The Pac-12 media placed Colorado 11th in their preseason poll.

No. 17 TCU, which was a two-touchdown favorite over the Buffs last season, is a 20.5-point favorite over Colorado for the 2023 season opener.

Coach Prime’s confidence, though, has never wavered. “I’m comin’ ” has been his mantra for the past nine months.

Who’s right? Coach Prime … or his critics? Has it all been smoke and mirrors? Or has Colorado found a winning combination of players and coaches?

Let’s find out …

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This Week’s “T.I.P.S” for CU at No. 17 TCU – Saturday, 10:00 a.m., MT, Fox – Big Noon Saturday No. 1

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T – Talent

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The return of Chandler Morris.

Morris beat out three-year starter Max Duggan for the start in the opener against Colorado last season. Morris was largely ineffective against the Buffs early, with Duggan taking over for an injured Morris in the second half, leading the Horned Frogs to three fourth quarter touchdowns in a 38-13 rout.

Duggan went on to be a Heisman trophy runner-up, leading TCU to the national championship game. Chandler, meanwhile, went on to have only seven pass attempts in mop up duty the remainder of the 2022 season.

Now Morris – the quarterback who did beat out Duggan for the starting job a year ago – is back for a second start against the Buffs.

TCU offensive coordinator Garrett Riley left to be the offensive coordinator at Clemson, replaced by Kendal Briles, who came over from Arkansas., with Briles favoring an offense with an emphasis on the quick passing game.

So … What weapons will Briles and Morris have to work with?

Five Horned Frog starters on offense were drafted into the NFL, with three others signing on as free agents. In all, only three starters overall return on offense. In addition to Duggan, TCU lost a first-round draft pick wide receiver (Quentin Richardson), an All-American offensive lineman (Steve Avila – a second round NFL draft pick), and 1,400-yard rusher Kendre Miller (third round).

With only one wide receiver and two offensive tackles returning … What weapons will Morris have at his disposal?

The returning receiver with the most experience is 6’5″ Savion Williams, (392 yards and four touchdowns), who, along with Oklahoma State transfer J.P. Richardson (504 yards and four touchdowns), will try and make TCU fans forget about losing first-round NFL draft pick Quentin Richardson.

The rushing attack may also be led by a transfer, with Alabama transfer Trey Sanders battling last season’s backup, Emani Bailey, for carries.

The good news for the TCU defense is that seven starters return.

The bad news is that seven starters are back from a defense which was not all that good.

Not good? The defense for a team which went 12-0 in the regular season?

Well, TCU won games last season by out-scoring its opponents (remember the 51-45 CFP semi-final win over Michigan?). TCU was 89th in scoring defense last year, giving up 29.0 points/game, and was 94th in total defense, surrendering over 400 yards per game.

The best three players from the defense were drafted, including Thorpe Award winner, cornerback Tre-Vius Hodges-Tomlinson, and defensive end Dylan Horton, who had a CFP-record four sacks against Michigan.

The strength of the defense will be the secondary. First-team All-Big 12 corner Josh Newton returns, along with three safeties … including former Buff Mark Perry, back for his senior season. Only one starter along the line of TCU’s 3-3-5 defense returns – the very large Damonic Williams, who checks in at 6’2″, 320-pounds. If CU can neutralize Williams, the running game has a chance to be successful.

At the end of the day, TCU will likely not replicate the No. 9 scoring offense in 2022 … but will also likely be better than No. 89 in scoring defense.

The Horned Frogs will score, but they can be scored upon.

Can the CU offense, led by the dynamic Shedeur Sanders, keep up?

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I – Intangibles

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If you are a TCU player or fan, what do you remember most about the 2022 season?

The undefeated regular season, including a dominating win (55-24) over Oklahoma, and the road win over Texas?

Or do you remember the 31-28 loss to Kansas State, denying TCU its first Big 12 championship (the Horned Frogs won a share of the 2014 title – there were no Big 12 championship games between 2011 and 2016).

Will the 2022 season be remembered for the wild 51-45 CFP semi-final win over Michigan?

Or … the humbling 65-7 loss to No. 1 Georgia in the national championship game?

“The first day I came to workouts, I could see in everybody’s eyes that it wasn’t the team that played in January”, said Alabama running back transfer Trey Sanders. “They wanted to come back and do better this year”.

TCU losing two of its final three games of the 2022 season can be seen as incentive for the 2023 team, or a bit of a tarnish on a Cinderella season.

No doubt, though, with the Fox Big Noon Saturday show in town, and a national television audience tuned in for the game … that the Horned Frogs are going to be pumped to dominate the Buffs … and put Coach Prime in his place.

For the Buffs … It’s going to be interesting to see how this team reacts to adversity. “Everyone has a plan until they get punched in the mouth” is the famous Mike Tyson quote. Coach Prime has been confident, perhaps even cocky, in his approach to building his coaching staff and his roster.

“We’re comin’ ” has been plastered all over campus and the Champions Center.

The whole of the college football world will be watching to see exactly what that means.

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P – Preparation/Schedule

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Time and temperature.

Unless you are of a certain age, you probably have no idea that once upon a time, there was a phone number you had to dial (on your rotary phone), to get the time and temperature.

You could dial a local number, and a recorded voice would let you know: “The local temperature is 71-degrees. At the tone, the time from Mountain Bell will be … 1:14 p.m. ….. ding”.

Time and temperature will play a role in the CU season opener in Ft. Worth.

The temperature in the greater Dallas-Ft. Worth metro area has been in the 100s for most of August, and the latest forecast for the CU/TCU game is for a high of 103-degrees. Add in the heat of the stadium and the uniforms – and you are going to witness a miserable day for the athletes (at least the turf at Amon G. Carter Stadium is natural grass).

With an 11:00 a.m. local kickoff time, the players will avoid some of the worst of the heat of the day, but it will certainly be a topic of discussion for those broadcasting the game.

The consensus will be that the heat will work against the Buffs and in favor of the Horned Frogs, who have been practicing in the heat for all of Fall Camp. There is also the ever-present question of quality depth on the CU roster, and how the heat-mandated necessity to rotate in players will work to CU’s detriment.

But … CU’s roster is littered with players from Texas, Florida, and throughout the South. These Buffs may not have been practicing in the same heat and humidity that the TCU players have had to endure this August … but they are no strangers to the heat, either.

Plus … We should factor in the fact that TCU, which has been practicing in a heat dome all of Fall Camp, may actually have not gone in as much work in the preseason as they normally would. Programs are much more aware of issues like heat exhaustion than they used to be, and that would have been a factor this past month in Ft. Worth.

Perhaps the over-heated TCU coaching staff and players haven’t had the opportunity to get in as much practice as they would have liked this August … ?

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As far as scheduling goes, CU’s insistence on playing a difficult non-conference schedule again works against the Buffs.

Last year, these two teams also played in the season opener. The Buffs, though, had a tough game on the calendar for Game Two … a trip to Air Force.

Meanwhile, TCU was returning home to face the fighting Tarleton State Texans.

This year, the Buffs will be returning to Boulder to play hated rival Nebraska in another national game.

TCU? The Horned Frogs will be staying home to face … the dreaded Colonels of Nicholls State.

While the CU coaches and players have to have at least an eye on next weekend’s games, TCU’s coaches and players have been able to focus all of their attention this past month on the Buffs.

Advantage: TCU.

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S – Statistics 

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This section last year was labeled the “car accident section” – You know you should look away, but you just can’t …

This fall, this section shouldn’t be as bad as it was last fall … it could hardly be worse.

Stats to make you smile … TCU went 12-2 last season, but it wasn’t without a bit of luck and good fortune. Numbers to remember:

• On offense … 8 … As in eight starters which the TCU offense has to replace this fall. The Horned Frogs have two offensive tackles and the fourth-leading receiver returning, but that’s it. The offense will be good … but not 27th in total offense and 9th in scoring offense good.
• On defense … 7 … The Horned Frogs gave up four or more touchdowns in a game nine times last season – yet won seven of those games. The defense returns over half of its lineup, but they do give up points.

Stats to make you cringe … You can feel free to skip this one, if you are squeamish. These are numbers which CU fans lived with for all of the 2022 season, and have had thrown at them over and over again by the preseason magazines. If you wanted to justify picking Colorado as the No. 11 team in the Pac-12, and one of the worst teams in the Power Five conferences, you just pulled up these stats:

• On offense … 114th in rushing offense … 117th in passing offense … 127th in total offense … 126th in scoring offense
• On defense … 130th in rushing defense … 127th in passing defense … 129th in total defense … 130th in scoring offense

Promise that this is the last time I will post these numbers … unless they are to show how much better the 2023 Buffs are when compared to the 2022 Buffs.

Stats to watch (i.e, stats which will play a role in deciding the game) … Turnovers … Colorado was 124th in the nation in turnover margin last year, which should come as no surprise. Colorado was out-scored by an average margin of 29 points/game last fall, so arguably turnovers were not a significant factor. They will be this fall. CU will be in most of its games in 2023, but if the Buffs are to beat a quality team – like TCU – bounces will have to go their way … Time of possession/Three-and-outs … Time of possession is arguably one of the most unimportant stats in the game, especially for teams who want to run an up-tempo offense. However, in the heat of the DFW metroplex this weekend, keeping your defensive teammates off the field will be paramount for both offenses. Time of possession, or, if you prefer, three-and-outs avoided, will be a factor in which team is in the best position to take control in the second half.

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Prediction … 

In 2021, the Horned Frogs gave up at least 28 points to every FBS team they faced … and they fired head coach Gary Patterson, who was an institution at TCU.

In 2022, the Horned Frogs gave up an average of 29 points per game … and played for the national championship.

In 2023, the Horned Frogs will be without their Thorpe Award winning cornerback and two other drafted starters.

Teams will score on TCU this fall. Perhaps the unit, with seven returning starters and some quality Transfer Portal pickups, will be better than what the Horned Frogs put on the field in 2021 and 2022.

Perhaps it will be more of the same.

The question is whether the Colorado offense will be able to take advantage. The Buff Nation is confident that Shedeur Sanders is the real deal, and will easily make the transition from FCS to FBS competition. The Buff Nation is confident that CU has a strong stable of skill position players on offense, and has at least a decent offense line to make the offense hum.

On the other side of the ball, concerns remain as to whether Colorado can stop opposing offenses from running the ball. The defensive line is small, with perilously thin depth. The secondary may be stout, but if the front seven can’t force teams into passing situations, the defensive backfield may never be tested.

I am excited about the arc the CU program is taking. Considering where we were nine months ago … it’s like night and day. Where there was pessimism, there is now optimism. Where there was malaise, there is now excitement.

If CU was taking on North Texas instead of a ranked TCU team, there would be reason to be looking forward to the first Saturday of the Coach Prime era. As it is, the 20.5-point line is a sobering reminder of how far we still have to go.

Buff fans still have plenty to look forward to, but the scars of watching teams wearing CU uniforms over the past two decades are still fresh.

The pundits don’t see a quick turnaround for the program.

Vegas doesn’t see a quick turnaround for the program.

The turnaround is comin’ … but not quite yet.

Prediction … No. 17 TCU 33, Colorado 21

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• 2021 Predictions … (Straight up: 9-3; Against the Spread: 7-5) … 
• 2022 Predictions … (Straight up: 10-2; Against the Spread: 9-3) …

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This post, about the TCU game, from the 2023 Season, is filed under Article.
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