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By The Numbers – Offense
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In a recent article in The Athletic, “Deion Sanders’ extreme Colorado makeover has coaches buzzing: ‘It’s a tremendous risk’ “, there are any number of quotable quotes (all anonymous) taking Coach Prime and CU to task for the turnover on the roster this off-season. This one, though, has stuck with me:
“It is just absolutely unreasonable to think you can sign 25 players out of the spring transfer portal and make your team better,” a Big 12 Director of Player Personnel said, “unless the players they had were just that bad, which I don’t buy. In the end, is the sum of the 25 new guys going to be greater than the sum of the 25 old guys? Man, I don’t know.”
Seriously? This guy rates players and rosters for a living, and he doesn’t know whether Coach Prime can find better players than the ones which left after the Spring Game?
Okay, I get it. The number of quality players in the Portal after spring practices is fewer than it was after the first Portal opening in December. If the question is whether CU can put together a starting lineup just from transfers this spring, then there is good reason to be skeptical.
But that is not what Coach Prime and his staff are trying to do with the 20-25 scholarships they had to work with after Spring ball.
What this anonymous director of Player Personnel from the Pac-12 is conveniently forgetting is that Coach Prime already put together the first Top 25 Recruiting Class at CU in over a decade, and followed that up with the nation’s No. 1 ranked Transfer Portal Class (and that was before any post-spring additions).
Can Coach Prime find 25 players this spring better than the 25 who left, Mr. DPP?
Well, he’s already done it … twice!
While it’s never guaranteed that a highly touted freshman will pan out, or a former four-star recruit who comes to Boulder through the Transfer Portal will live up to expectations, if we look at what CU is bringing in, and compare it to what CU is giving up – in as objective manner as we can – there’s no contest.
Let’s take a look – position by position – as to what CU has gained since last December, and what it has lost. I’m not a big fan of star ratings, but that will be a measure we’ll use. Another measure, which I believe to be a more accurate measure of what schools think of a player, is their Power Five offers out of high school. We’ll also take a look, when applicable, at where the former Buffs who have left the team have landed.
Quarterbacks
Incoming
- Shedeur Sanders (Jackson State) (Jr.) … three-star recruit … 16 Power Five offers
- Ryan Staub (Fr.) … three-star recruit … two Power Five offers
- Kasen Weisman (Fr.) … three-star recruit … three Power Five offers
Outgoing
- Brendon Lewis (Nevada) … three-star recruit … 10 Power Five offers
- J.T. Shrout (Arkansas State) … three-star recruit … two Power Five offers
- Owen McCown (UTSA) … three-star recruit … two Power Five offers
- Maddox Kopp (Miami-Ohio) … three-star recruit … two Power Five offers
- Drew Carter … three-star recruit … one Power Five offer
Notes … If it is quality over quantity, this is a no-brainer. No Buff fan would trade Shedeur Sanders, who was sought after by the likes of Alabama, Michigan, Florida State and LSU, and who threw for almost 7,000 yards in two years at Jackson State, over the five scholarship quarterbacks who have left the program since the end of the 2022 season. Now, would it be nice to have one or more of the lost Buffs still on the roster as a backup? Sure. Heading into the fall with Sanders and two true freshmen would be frightening. The coaching staff surely understands this, and it will remedied before August 1st.
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Running backs
Incoming
- Kavosiey Smoke (Kentucky) (Sr.) … three-star recruit … 10 Power Five offers
- Dylan Edwards … (Fr.) … four-star recruit … 21 Power Five offers
- Anthony Hankerson (Soph.) …
Outgoing
- Deion Smith … three-star recruit … 11 Power Five offers
- Jayle Stacks … two-star recruit … one Power Five offer
- Victor Venn … three-star recruit … 17 Power Five offers
Notes … This is one unit with a holdover, sophomore Anthony Hankerson. An argument can be made that the offer sheets for Deion Smith and Victor Venn are fairly comparable to those of Kavosiey Smoke and Dylan Edwards, but here’s guessing that most Buff fans would see the trade as an upgrade to the room. Kavosiey Smoke is a senior transfer who had a measure of success at Kentucky, while Dylan Edwards is a four-star prospect who flipped to CU from his commitment to Notre Dame. Meanwhile, it’s telling that none of the three backs who left the program have yet to find a new home. Another back or two would be welcome, but this unit has been improved.
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Wide Receivers
Incoming
- Xavier Weaver (USF) (Sr.) … two-star recruit … one Power Five offer
- Willie Gaines … (Jackson State) (Jr.) … three-star recruit … two Power Five offers
- Jimmy Horn Jr. … (USF) (Jr.) … three-star recruit … two Power Five offers
- EJ Horton … (Marshall) (Jr.) … two-star recruit … zero Power Five offers (signed with Marshall)
- Jaylen Ellis … (Baylor) (Jr.) … three-star recruit … 18 Power Five offers
- Tar’Varish Dawson Jr. … (Auburn) (Soph.) … three-star recruit … 18 Power Five offers
- Isaiah Hardge … (Fr.) … three-star recruit … 10 Power Five offers
- Adam Hopkins … (Fr.) … four-star recruit … 19 Power Five offers
- Omarion Miller … (Fr.) … four-star recruit … seven Power Five offers
- Jordan Onovughe … (Fr.) … three-star recruit … three Power Five offers
- Jacob Page … (Fr.) … three-star recruit … 12 Power Five offers
- Asaad Waseem … (Fr.) … three-star recruit … 10 Power Five offers
- Travis Hunter … (Soph.) … five-star recruit … 11 Power Five offers
Outgoing
- Chase Penry (Boise State) three-star recruit … one Power Five offer
- Maurice Bell … three-star recruit … eight Power Five offers
- Montana Lemonious-Craig … three-star recruit … three Power Five offers
- Chase Sowell … three-star recruit … one Power Five offer
- Jordyn Tyson … three-star recruit … one Power Five offer
- Grant Page … three-star recruit … 10 Power Five offers
- Ty Robinson … three-star recruit … five Power Five offers
Notes … Much has been made by the pundits that CU had ten scholarship wide receivers at the end of last season, with none of them remaining on the roster after spring practices (in addition to those listed above, two graduated, with Daniel Arias opting to try for an NFL career). The losses of Montana Lemonious-Craig and Jordyn Tyson were the most publicized, and potentially the hardest to take. But if you look at the remaining wide receivers, and compare them to what is coming in, there really isn’t much comparison. Would CU fans rather have MLC or Jordyn Tyson instead of EJ Horton or Willie Gaines? Probably. But if you take the remaining five receivers who have been lost, and compare them to the replacements, it’s no contest. It will be interesting to see where the outgoing wide receivers wind up … they could do a Group of Five team proud, but were they Power Five receivers? Perhaps not …
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Tight Ends
Incoming
- Caleb Fauria (Soph.)
- Erik Olsen (Soph.)
- Louis Passarello (Soph.)
Outgoing
- Austin Smith (Memphis) … two-star recruit … one Power Five offer
- Zachary Courtney (Coastal Carolina) … three-star recruit … one Power Five offer
- Seydou Traore … two-star recruit … zero Power Five offers (signed with Arkansas State)
Notes … Seydou, we hardly knew ye … Traore was a December commitment, but lasted all of 15 spring practices at CU before jumping back into the Transfer Portal. CU is left with three holdover sophomores – Louis Passarello, Caleb Fauria, and Erik Olsen. Passarello was the surprise of the spring, being one of only a dozen or so players to “earn” their numbers during spring practices. Traore’s 50 catches last season at Arkansas State whetted the appetite of the Buff Nation for production from the tight end position, but it doesn’t appear that it was meant to be (it was perhaps a bad fit from the beginning – Traore had more receptions last season than all of the tight ends had in Sean Lewis’ Kent State offense the past three seasons … combined).
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Offensive Line
Incoming
- Landon Bebee … (Sr.) (Missouri State) … unrated … zero Power Five offers (played for Missouri State)
- Jack Bailey … (Jr.)(Kent State)… two-star recruit … zero Power Five offers (played for Kent State)
- Tyler Brown … (Jr.)(Kent State) … two-star recruit … zero Power Five offers (played for Jackson State)
- Isaiah Jatta … (Jr.)(Snow College) … three-star recruit … 11 Power Five offers (out of junior college)
- Kareem Harden … (Soph.)(Butler C.C.) … three-star recruit … five Power Five offers
- Savion Washington … (Soph.)(Kent State) … two-star recruit … zero Power Five offers (played for Kent State)
- Jack Wilty … (Soph.)(Iowa Central C.C.) … three-star recruit … two Power Five offers (out of junior college)
- David Conner … (R.Fr.)(Florida) … three-star recruit … four Power-Five offers
- Carter Edwards … (R.Fr) … three-star recruit … five Power Five offers
- Hank Zalinskas … (Fr.) … two-star recruit … one Power Five offer
- Reggie Young … (Sr.)(Liberty) … three-star recruit … zero Power Five offers (played last season for Liberty)
Outgoing
- Casey Roddick (Florida State) … three-star recruit … six Power Five offers
- Noah Fenske (Southern Illinois) … three-star recruit … three Power Five offers
- Austin Johnson (Charlotte) … three-star recruit … four Power Five offers
- Alex Harkey … two-star recruit … one Power Five offer
- Jackson Anderson … two-star recruit … two Power Five offers
- Travis Gray … three-star prospect … five Power Five offers
- Luke Eckardt … two-star prospect … one Power Five offer
- Yousef Mugharbil … three-star prospect … 17 Power Five offers
- Jake Wiley (UCLA) … three-star prospect … three Power Five offers
Notes … The good news? CU returns two starters, in offensive tackle Gerad Christian Lichtenhan and center Van Wells. The bad news? Two other potential starters have jumped ship (or were pushed), and will be playing for other Power Five schools this fall (Casey Roddick transferring to Florida State; Jake Wiley to UCLA). The fact that five of the eleven incoming offensive linemen had zero Power Five offers out of high school doesn’t exactly give Buff fans warm fuzzies, either. Now, two of the incoming players – tackle Savion Washington and guard Jack Bailey – were starters for offensive coordinator Sean Lewis and offensive line coach Bill O’Boyle the last few seasons at Kent State, so at least they know the offense (but can they compete at the Power Five level?). Landon Beebe will give Van Wells a run for his money in competing for the starting job at center, and Isaiah Jetta was also a starter last season. Still, that’s two more starters at lower divisions.
CU had one of the worst offensive lines in the country last season, but with Roddick and Wiley signing with Power Five teams this spring, it may be that the players were victims of poor coaching and were really not that bad. We’ll never know, as only two players from last season’s team return. Fingers crossed that Sean Lewis and Bill O’Boyle will be able to craft something out of what appears to still be a sub-standard Power Five offensive line.
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By the numbers …
Incoming players (29 – not counting returning players)
- 1 five-star prospect
- 3 four-star prospects
- 18 three-star prospects
- 7 two-star or unrated prospects
- Total Power Five offers: 193 (6.6/player)
Outgoing players (27)
- zero five-star prospects
- zero four-star prospects
- 21 three-star prospects
- 6 two-star or unrated prospects
- Total Power Five offers: 119 (4.4/player)
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2 Replies to “By The Numbers – Offense”
Ya the oline cuts kinda bother me.
Especially where they are going
Go Buffs
The CU culture was a losing culture, and sometimes it is just better to get rid of everyone from that losing culture (even if it means getting rid of some good players) in order to replace that culture with a winning one.