“Reasons for Optimism” – Will it Be “CU in ’22”?

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“Reasons for Optimism” – Will it Be “CU in ’22”?

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Neill Woelk, longtime Contributing Editor for the official website of CU football, CUBuffs.com, has been writing about the Buffs for decades. A CU alum, Woelk worked for the Daily Camera for years as a columnist and reporter before signing on with CU in 2015. For years, I have worked hard – mostly in vain – to emulate his style. He is well respected, and has been honored for his work (including as the Colorado sportswriter of the year).

Now, working inside the Champions Center, Neill is a position to offer insights to the Buffs which ordinary fans – not to mention every other sportswriter – can’t provide.

In short, when Neill talks about the Buffs, he is doing so as a writer who knows more than we do.

So, when Neill posted his latest column, “Buffs Have Reasons For Optimism As Training Camp Nears“, there was good reason to take a look at what Neill had to say.

But … While an insider, Neill does receive a paycheck from the University of Colorado. Which can give some fans reason to take his optimism with a grain of salt.

So let’s break down Neill’s five reason for optimism as July turns to August …

1. Upgraded coaching staff

Karl Dorrell brought in six new assistants this offseason including a new offensive coordinator, a new O-line boss (Kyle DeVan) and a new wide receivers coach, Phil McGeoghan, who Dorrell just recently elevated to assistant head coach.

The changes were sweeping and by nearly every account, a solid step up in every area. Dorrell now has veteran, proven assistants on both sides of the ball whose eye for detail and stress of fundamentals will be critical.

Their impact should be apparent early. 

True enough, Dorrell was hired in February, 2020. It’s hard to imagine a worse time to put together a coaching staff. Almost every other coaching staff in the nation was filled. so the pickings were slim. Arguably, Dorrell was saddled with Darrin Chiaverini as his offensive coordinator, and was prevented from developing the Buffs the way he wanted. Chiaverini is now gone, and much better results are expected from the offense this fall.

But … Dorrell didn’t fire Chiaverini until after Year Two. He had the offseason between 2020 and 2021 to put his own stamp on the coaching staff, yet Chiaverini was still there for the 2021 season. It may have been a financial move, with CU limited in its assistant coaching pool of dollars, making it more difficult to move Chiaverini out after Dorrell’s first season in 2020. But bear in mind 2020 was the 4-2 year, with Chiaverini’s offense producing CU’s first offensive Player of the Year (Jarek Broussard) in almost 20 years. Chiaverini wasn’t the pariah – or scapegoat – that he has since become.

2. New offense 

Colorado’s offensive woes last year were well-documented. The Buffs struggled to run the ball consistently and their passing game seldom found anything resembling a rhythm. The resulting numbers were historically low.

Enter Mike Sanford, whose resume has a long list of impressive stops and a history of well-balanced attacks and productive results.

But … Is there really a long list of impressive stops for Mike Sanford? It doesn’t seem like there were many tears being shed when Minnesota did not renew Sanford’s contract at the end of last season. Minnesota was 99th in the nation in total offense in 2021; 83rd in scoring offense. While both of those numbers would represent an upgrade from CU’s production last year (129th in total offense; 121st in scoring offense), they hardly scream “impressive”.

Is Sanford an upgrade from Chiaverini? Almost certainly. But is he the savior Buff fans have longed for for decades? To be determined …

3. Improved quarterback play

For some inexplicable reason, Dorrell’s statement last week that Brendon Lewis was “in the driver’s seat” in the QB competition was met with surprise, both from the media and the CU fan base.

What did anyone expect? Lewis is the incumbent, having started in every game last year. While he did experience his share of struggles, by no means were they all his fault. An inconsistent offensive line and some underwhelming efforts from other skill positions no doubt contributed, and despite consistently being under pressure in the pocket, he finished with just three interceptions — the school’s all-time low for quarterbacks with at least 250 attempts.

But … See the above stats. Add in to the above numbers that CU was 126th in the nation in passing offense and 128th in first downs, and you can see why some fans and media were not ready to anoint Brendon Lewis as the de facto starter for 2022.

If 2022 is going to be the season of change for Colorado, and the Buffs are going to take a step forward, there have to be more changes than just in the coaching staff. CU lost is 2020 Pac-12 Offensive Player of Year (Jarek Broussard), and three of its top wide receivers (Brenden Rice, Dimitri Stanley, and Vontae Shenault). The offensive line is still very much a question mark, and CU hasn’t used its tight ends for a generation. With all of these losses in personnel … Buff fans are going to take it as a matter of course that the offense is going to get markedly better?

Yes, Buff fans will be cheering for Brendon Lewis. We’re all hoping that he was held back by a thin quarterback roster and unimaginative play calling. But there is still plenty of room for skepticism that Brendon Lewis will automatically be able to turn the Buffs into a Top 50 offense.

4. More comfortable on defense 

It’s hard to think that this year’s defense could be better than the 2021 version. The Buffs lost a host of key starters from last year, including anchor linebacker Nate Landman, edge rusher Carson Wells and blossoming corner Christian Gonzalez.

But the good news is that CU’s returning defenders are far more comfortable with coordinator Chris Wilson‘s scheme in its second year — and there are enough returning vets to provide the foundation for what could be a sneaky good defense.

But … It’s hard to take this spin on CU’s personnel at face value. Nate Landman was a generational player, and CU lost 3/4 of its secondary to the Transfer Portal. Yes, there is potential there. But this is the third year for Karl Dorrell and the second with Chris Wilson as the defensive coordinator. The players taking the field are almost all Dorrell’s guys.

Colorado was 98th in total defense last year, and five of its best players (Landman, Wells, Gonzalez, Blackmon and Perry) are gone. And with those players, CU was almost in triple digits in total defense. Now the heart of the defense is gone, and the Buffs are going to be “sneaky good”?

I sure hope so.

5. The schedule. 

Wait … what? A difficult non-conference lineup and a brutal four-game conference stretch run is a plus?

That’s correct. While CU’s slate is no doubt a difficult one, it’s set up to give the Buffs a potential quick start that could create some momentum as they had into the home stretch.

But … I don’t even have argue here, Neill makes the argument for us – CU has one of the most difficult non-conference schedules in the nation.

No way do I see this as a plus for this team.

It worked well for McCartney in the late 1980s and early 1990s, when CU had Top 25 recruiting Classes every year. It just doesn’t hold water now.

CU’s non-conference schedule … TCU; at Air Force; at Minnesota.

Most preseason magazines have CU going 1-2 or even 0-3.

Meanwhile, UCLA, which CU will face in the Pac-12 conference opener, has an non-conference schedule of: Bowling Green; Alabama State; and South Alabama. All at home.

There is almost zero chance that the Bruins won’t come to Boulder with a 3-0 record (and a likely national ranking).

Color me soft, but the way CU has been playing the past 15 years, and the number of bowl bids CU has had over that stretch … give me UCLA’s schedule every time.

The Bruins will be halfway to bowl eligibility by mid-September. Wouldn’t the narrative about CU be significantly different if the Buffs were all but guaranteed a 3-0 start?

From Neill’s article … 

“We’ve got a really good football staff. I think we’ve got solid veterans coming back and we’ve got some really good young guys on this team,” Rick George said. “So my expectation is that we’ll be in a bowl game in December or January and I think Karl probably has those same expectations.”

The reasons behind the low expectations from the outside are understandable. The Buffs are coming off a disappointing 4-8 finish last year, which was followed by an offseason that saw a handful of key players depart via the transfer portal (an issue certainly not particular to Colorado).

But that quiet optimism within the program is also more than just wishful thinking. The Buffs made some solid improvement in key areas in the offseason and given the unknowns surrounding a number of Pac-12 teams, a bowl season is by no means an impossibility for Dorrell’s team.

Again, Neill has greater insights into the program than we do. He is in the Champions Center. He interacts with the coaches and players on a regular basis. That alone gives him more credibility to talk about the 2022 Buffs than those us outside the walls.

Will his optimism be rewarded?

Stay tuned …

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Tags: Neill Woelk
This post, about the Fall Camp game, from the 2022 Season, is filed under Article.
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