CU at Arizona State: “T.I.P.S” for Buffs v. Sun Devils

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CU at Arizona State: “T.I.P.S.” for CU’s First Road Game of the Season

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… Related … If you prefer your predictions verbally, “CU at the Game Podcast: Minnesota post-mortem and Arizona State preview” can be found at Apple Podcasts, Google Podcasts, or pretty much wherever you download your favorites. Or, if you would prefer, you can find the podcast here or here.

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Last week, Pat Rooney of the Daily Camera speculated that the Minnesota game “could impact the critical weeks to come. If they win, the Buffs travel to Arizona State high on confidence … With a loss, however, not only will the Buffs fail to capitalize on the momentum of nearly knocking off Texas A&M, but that same schedule suddenly takes a more daunting complexion. Instead of visiting a venue at Arizona State where the home team is battling its own inner turmoil (and where the Buffs won last time), that journey becomes a demanding trip …”.

Well, welcome to a “demanding trip”.

It’s true that Arizona State comes into the Pac-12 opener for both schools with issues of its own. After boring romps through overwhelmed Southern Utah and UNLV, the Sun Devils met their match in their first road game of the season, falling to BYU, 27-17, last Saturday night. ASU, which opened the season as the No. 25 team in the nation in the AP preseason poll, jumped to No. 21 and then to No. 19 before BYU dropped them out of the polls this week (ASU is No. 31 in votes this week).

The last time CU traveled to Tempe, the Buffs upset No. 24 Arizona State.

All in all, it’s a shame that the Sun Devils won’t be giving the Buffs another chance at a road victory over a ranked team – those are hard to come by.

So, without further adieu, here are the “T.I.P.S.” for the Buffs’ Pac-12 conference opener against the Sun Devils …

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This Week’s “T.I.P.S” for CU at Arizona State – Saturday, 8:30 p.m., MT, ESPNU

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T – Talent

The ASU offense begins and ends with quarterback Jayden Daniels. A freshman All-American in 2019, Daniels is on all of the preseason award watch lists, and was a second-team All-Pac-12 selection. Through three games, Daniels has passed for 572 yards (Brendon Lewis, by comparison, has passed for, um, 246 yards) … oh, and Daniels has rushed for 173 yards on 29 carries (a 6.0 yards/carry average), so the Buff defenders will need to be on their toes to contain him.

The Buffs won’t be able to focus on any one receiver, though, as four players have between 109 and 117 receiving yards this season. The main wide receiver target is Ricky Pearsall, who has 11 receptions in the first three games, but keep an eye on Andre Johnson, who had a 55-yard reception against BYU.

Still, the main threats to the Buff defense, other than the quarterback Daniels, will come on the ground. The leading rusher is Rachaad White, who is not only the Sun Devils’ leading rusher (44 carries for 219 yards and five touchdowns), but also the leading receiver (15 catches for another 117 yards).

But the runner who caught my eye in the game against BYU is Daniyel Ngata, a speedster who has had a rushing touchdown in every game this season, and is averaging 7.3 yards every time he touches the ball.

On defense, the Sun Devils feature two first-team All-Pac-12 performers in defensive lineman Jermayne Lole and defensive back Chase Lucas. Linebacker Darien Butler, with 20 tackles (including two sacks), currently leads the Sun Devils in those categories.

What doesn’t bode well for CU’s struggling offense is the fact that Arizona State is 11th in the nation in total defense, giving up only 246.7 yards/game. Granted, some of those great numbers were against out-manned foes in the first two games, but even against BYU, the Sun Devils were able to hold the Cougars to 361 yards of total offense.

For a CU offense which hasn’t scored in seven quarters, those are pretty daunting numbers.

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I – Intangibles

There’s an old coaching cliché that you don’t let the same team beat you twice. Translation: Don’t let the hangover from the tough loss you just sustained have an impact on the next game.

Arguably, the Buffs suffered a hangover from the close loss to No. 5 Texas A&M, and weren’t fully prepared for the Golden Gophers (well, at least the offense wasn’t prepared. Whether you blame the non-existent offensive output on a timid quarterback, a sieve of an offensive line, or poor play calling – or all of the above – there is no question that the output against Minnesota was of historically poor proportions).

Could that hold true for the Sun Devils this weekend? Arizona State has been the darling of many a prognosticator for the past nine months, but ASU’s College Football Playoff aspirations took an almost fatal hit with the loss to BYU. An undefeated run through the Pac-12 schedule could result in a playoff berth, but no team has made it through the Pac-12 regular season unscathed since the league was formed.

Is it possible that the Sun Devils suffer a let down after the BYU game?

Certainly possible.

For a team which went 2-2 in an abbreviated 2020 season (compared to CU’s 4-2), the 2021 preseason magazines were ebullient in their praise of Arizona State.

Said Athlon: This appears to be the most talented and experienced ASU team in many years, perhaps even going as far back as its last Rose Bowl berth in the 1996 season. With a generous front end of the schedule to build momentum, external expectations are so high that anything short of a Pac-12 South title will be considered a disappointment by a decent percentage of the program’s fan base. Fewer than nine wins definitely won’t cut it.

That’s a lot to live up to … and now Arizona State is back among the others, looking up at the Top 25.

Can’t help but be a little bit let down.

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P – Preparation/Schedule

It’s rare that preparation is a major factor in a game, unless one team is coming off of a bye, one team is playing back-to-back road games, one team just lost their star player to injury, etc.

But preparation and the schedule may work to the Buffs’ advantage this weekend.

Yes, it’s CU’s first true road game, but it’s also a chance for the team to bond, and do so far away from the evermore skeptical eyes watching in Folsom Field, may actually be a blessing.

And yes, it will be hot. The forecast has it the mid-90’s in Tempe at kickoff (even at 8:30 at night, it still hasn’t cooled down much). That being said, it will be the third straight game the Buffs will have played in the heat. It was 92-degrees at kickoff for the Texas A&M game, and, while it was officially at 70-degrees for the 11:00 a.m. kickoff against Minnesota, anyone who was in Folsom Field last weekend knows that it wasn’t 70-degrees in the second half. (Oh, and at least the Buffs will be in white uniforms for the game).

Plus, here’s what might be working against the Sun Devils this Saturday.

Not the heat – they’re used to it, one would assume – but the timing of the conference opener.

For those national pundits planning on Herm Edwards & Co. posting ASU’s second-ever Pac-12 South Division title (the other coming in 2013), the Colorado game was looked upon as the warm up game for the truly important game … a road tilt against UCLA in the Rose Bowl next weekend. Two weeks ago, ASU was 2-0 and ranked, and UCLA was coming off of a big win over LSU and ranked … while USC was firing its coach after losing to Stanford … it appeared that the winner between Arizona State and UCLA would not only have the inside track to the Pac-12 South title, but would be in position, with an upset of Oregon in the title game, to be a College Football Playoff contender.

While the ASU/UCLA game will still have implications in the South division race, it has lost a great deal of its luster, with both the Sun Devils falling out of the polls, and UCLA dropping 11 spots to No. 24.

Arizona State fans had a 4-0 record penciled in to start the season. Southern Utah and UNLV were not even a consideration, and BYU? The Cougars were coming off of a great season in 2020, but, unlike most teams in the COVID-2021 season, actually lost a great deal of talent from last year’s roster, including Zach Wilson, a first round NFL pick.

And then there was Colorado. Sure, the Buffs were 4-2 in 2020, but that was an aberration. Plus, the game would be in Tempe.

No, it’s not likely that many Sun Devil coaches, players or fans had this weekend’s game circled at the beginning of the season. And now, with the Buffs reeling, the game poses even less of a challenge.

Perhaps – not likely, but perhaps – the Buffs can catch the Sun Devils looking past this game, and turn the contest into a real battle.

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S – Statistics 

There are ugly stats, then there really ugly stats.

And then there are the numbers CU is putting up on offense.

Hang in there … I’ll be gentle …

The Race to 1,000 … Tailbacks Alex Fontenot and Jarek Broussard were in a race to become the 55th player in school history to rush for 1,000 career yards.  Alex Fontenot needed only four yards against Minnesota to get to 1,000, and, against the Gophers, Fontenot had three carries – for four yards. Fontenot is at 1,000 yards (at least until his first carry against the Sun Devils goes for a loss … ). Jarek Broussard, meanwhile, is at 966 career yards after gaining all of eight yards on five carries against Minnesota.

Stats to make you smile … You think CU has problems with penalties? Arizona State is 129th in the nation in penalties, averaging 12/game (the Sun Devils had 16 penalties for 121 yards against BYU). The Buffs, meanwhile, are at 41st in the nation in penalties (after having only five in the past two games) … ASU is also 104th in the country in turnovers, surrendering the ball ten times in the first three games (four against BYU).

Stats to make you cringe … Sigh … Where to start? … There are 130 FBS teams, and Colorado is … 126th in first downs (42) … 129th in passing offense (91.0 yds/game) …126th in total offense (235.3 yds/game) … and 126th in scoring offense (14.0 pts/game) … you get the idea …

Stats to watch (i.e, stats which will decide the game) … If the CU offense is going to be successful, it needs to work on a short field. The Buff defense has generated all of two turnovers in three games. Meanwhile, Arizona State, as noted above, has turned the ball over ten times in three games. If the Buffs can generate the four turnovers BYU did last Saturday night, this could be a game … A boring stat, I know, but time of possession is telling for CU this young season. Minnesota wore down the CU defense with the Buff offense going three-and-out time and time again. Colorado is currently 118th in the nation in time of possession, holding the ball for just 26:22 of game clock. Arizona State, meanwhile, is 26th in the nation in time of possession (32:20 per game) …

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Prediction … 

If you read my Essay for the Minnesota game, “Why Should We Continue to Care?“, you know that I am not only concerned about the Buffs being 1-2, but that the performance by the offense was so bad that it will kill the rest of the season.

We’re up to seven quarters and counting without the Buffs scoring a point. Now, in case you were wondering, the University of Colorado football team played the first three games in school history without scoring a point. CU’s 1890 results:

• Denver Athletic Club 20, Colorado 0
• Colorado Mines 103, Colorado 0 (yes, that score is correct)
• Colorado Springs A.A. 44, Colorado 0
• Colorado Mines 50, Colorado 4

So, there were at least 12 straight quarters in CU’s first season without a point, so the 2021 Buffs have that going for them … which is nice.

I would think/assume/pray that the Buffs will not extend their shutout streak into a second full game, but that depends on what the CU coaching staff comes up with.

Karl Dorrell said it was premature to give up on the season.

“Up until last week, this team has made a lot of progress,” he said. “They will continue to do so. Unfortunately, that was not a great performance and we all know that. The best thing about it is that our guys took it dead in the eye about understanding what our issues were and we got everything addressed and talked about. It showed today with our first practice of the week with our preparation for ASU.

“We’re moving on forward to ASU and it was a really good energy today (Monday) with what we’re doing. Obviously, we’re trying to get the bad taste out of our mouth and it starts with having a great preparation week so we can play well this Saturday.”

Hope springs eternal. The Buffs won the last time they traveled to Tempe, and that was against a ranked team. Herm Edwards is 0-2 against Colorado.

That’s not enough … until or unless the CU offense proves otherwise, the next best chance at a win will be against Arizona on October 16th.

Prediction … Arizona State 27, Colorado 13

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Previous predictions …

• Colorado 38, Northern Colorado 17 … Actual: Colorado 35, Northern Colorado 7
• No. 5 Texas A&M 38, Colorado 17 … Actual: No. 5 Texas A&M 10, Colorado 7
• Colorado 21, Minnesota 20 … Actual: Minnesota 30, Colorado 0

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This post, about the Arizona State game, from the 2021 Season, is filed under Article.
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