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“Time for Expectation”
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For years, the Buff Nation has had nothing but hope.
Hoping for the team to come around. Hoping that a roster filled with three-star players could find a way to defeat programs filled with four- and five-star prospects. Hoping for a coaching staff which could find a way to build a culture able to compete with programs who were better funded, programs which had the full support of their fans, their community, and their university administration.
We all but gave up hope during the 2022 season. When Karl Dorrell was fired mid-season, and then Chancellor Phil DiStefano declared that he saw no need for Colorado to change its transfer policy … even hope was a folly.
Then, Coach Prime came along.
Overnight (as CU’s transfer policy was thrown in the dumpster) Colorado became relevant. Coach Prime gutted the roster, and rewrote the book on how to “build” a program.
A 3-0 start to the Coach Prime era, with national pregame programs and a national ranking coming all too quickly, was a mirage.
The Buffs limped out of the Pac-12 with yet another 1-8 conference record, finishing the 2023 season with a 4-8, 1-8 record.
Hope had been restored, but, after finishing the season with a six-game losing streak, doubt was also back, front and center in the psyche of the Buff Nation.
The naysayers were all too happy to jump on CU’s failures to post wins in Coach Prime’s first campaign, and the national sentiment was that CU in 2024 was going to be the 2023 season, Part II.
The Big 12 preseason media poll had CU the No. 11 team in the conference. Vegas pegged CU as a bowl hopeful, setting the over/under win total at 5.5.
Never fear, said Coach Prime.
Yes, he said, CU had finished 4-8 in 2023, but the corner had been turned.
At the CU kickoff luncheon in August, Coach Prime had this to say to the Buff faithful:
“Last year we understood that we did instill a lot of hope, and I think that everyone had hope. We got our butts kicked twice, but otherwise we were within a touchdown. But now that hope has elapsed, it’s time for expectation, and I hope you are sitting there with expectation. That when you pull into that stadium, or turn on your television, that we’re going to give you what you desire”.
Now, with an impossible win over Baylor and an impressive win over Central Florida, Colorado is 4-1, 2-0 in Big 12 play.
The Buffs entered the game against the Knights as 13.5-point underdogs, but never trailed in picking up their first Big 12 conference road win since 2007, with the largest margin of victory in a conference game on the road since defeating Oklahoma State, 34-0 … in 2005.
The CU offense was impressive, with Shedeur Sanders completing 80% of his passes for 290 yards and three touchdowns. The much maligned offensive line gave up only two sacks, and paved the way to CU’s 128 yards rushing.
The CU defense, despite giving up 21 points and over 450 yards of total offense, was even more impressive. Forcing four turnovers, including a 95-yard fumble return for a touchdown by Cam’Ron Silmon-Craig, the Buffs did give up yards, but gave up only seven second half points (Robert Livingston’s defense has now surrendered a grand total of 26 second half points in CU’s first five games).
The Buffs have already matched their win total from last season, and have already matched CU’s conference win total from the last two seasons in the Pac-12 combined.
Is the sky the limit? Or should Buff fans be concerned that the 2024 season might slide into another string of losses, with CU – once again – disappointing its fan base?
While talk of competing for a Big 12 championship should be discouraged, a “Bowl game for Peggy” is within CU’s grasp.
And it’s not just because CU has four wins in the bank. Recall that CU was 4-2 at the midway point of last season, but still finished 4-8.
No, the reason for heightened expectations is more justifiable this year, and for two main reasons …
Depth …
CU’s lack of depth (and a lack of overall talent) in the trenches last season was painfully obvious to everyone who watched a Buff game. The offensive line was a sieve, giving up over 50 sacks … while producing a nation’s worst 69 yards per game rushing.
On the other side of the ball, the talent in CU’s defensive backfield never got to shine, because teams were never threatened by CU’s defensive front. Teams could run, teams could utilize short passes, teams could run crossing patterns … at will. CU’s 2023 wasn’t as bad as the 2022 defense, which surrendered points in bunches, but CU’s national rankings lagged in the 100s in almost every major category.
A major culprit was a lack of depth. Coach Prime’s roster overhaul brought in some top-of-the-line starting talent, but injuries at key positions exposed CU’s lack of depth. The template for defeating Colorado was written in October, and the Buffs were helpless to do much of anything about it in November.
This fall, however, there is quality depth. Safety Shilo Sanders broke his arm early in the Nebraska game, but the secondary hasn’t missed a beat. Starting defensive tackle Chidozie Nwankwo missed the last few games, but the defensive line didn’t disintegrate. The offensive line, while still a work in progress, has been able to shuffle in different starting lineups, and is improving with time.
Colorado is still a Shedeur Sanders injury away from having its season set on a downward trajectory, but, up and down the roster, there are more complimentary backups on the roster, bolstering CU’s chances for a successful second half to the 2024 season.
Schedule …
Last season, Colorado played six ranked teams. The Buff defense faced off against quarterbacks the likes of Caleb Williams, Bo Nix, and Cam Ward. It often wasn’t a pretty picture, as CU’s defense was often overmatched.
This season, in CU’s first season back in the Big 12, the Buffs appeared to have, at least on paper in August, another tough schedule. Five teams from the Big 12 were in the Associated Press preseason Top 25, and CU’s old conference welcomed the Buffs back … by scheduling CU to play all five.
Utah, Kansas State, Oklahoma State, Arizona and Kansas … all ranked in the AP preseason Top 25.
Since then? A regression.
Kansas is 1-4. Oklahoma State couldn’t handle a Cam Rising-less Utah team at home, then got shelled by Kansas State on the road. Utah handled Oklahoma State, but then lost at home to Arizona … which had lost to Kansas State.
Sure, Cincinnati and Texas Tech appear to be better than expected, but they too have their blemishes (the teams played a defense optional game Saturday night, with Texas Tech winning 44-41 when Cincinnati missed a field goal on the game’s final play).
Overall, as the Buffs cruise into their first bye week, Kansas State and Utah appear to be CU’s biggest challenges, though both now have losses of their own on their record.
Colorado will likely be significant underdogs in both of those games, but the Buffs do get both of those teams at home in Folsom.
The other five games? Toss-ups. You can picture a scenario in which CU beats Cincinnati and Oklahoma State at home, and also Arizona, Texas Tech and Kansas on the road. It is also not difficult to paint a picture in which the Buffs lose any or all of those games.
There’s a saying that no team is as good as its best game (in CU’s case, Central Florida), nor as bad as its worst game (Nebraska).
But … CU was given a gift by Baylor (man-to-man defense on a Hail Mary pass?), and played its most complete game of the season – arguably the most complete game since the 2016 season – against Central Florida, and CU fans have every right to be giddy about the Buffs’ 4-1, 2-0 record.
Nagging fears about how the 2023 season played out will not go away soon. But, with better depth, two bye weeks to rest and heal, together with a second-half schedule filled with opportunities for victories, it’s okay to start moving beyond just having hope.
As Coach Prime said …
It’s “Time for Expectation”.
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6 Replies to ““Time for Expectation””
Great essay Stuart. There is one line I would change… Giving credit where credit is due.
“Then, Coach Prime came along.”
Maybe should read as: “Then Rick George went out and got coach Prime and some how got the administration on board with changing the transfer rule(s).”
But everything else is Glory, Glory CU!
Great game.
I was not able to watch the game until today and just finished it, and I had a feeling all week that the Buffs would win and turn the corner… But I couldn’t predict a win like this.
I write this knowing the Buffs have lost many games when I’ve had to watch a day later, but the feeling I had all week were like the weeks when they won after I felt this way and it was better than any game since 2016!
13.5 points underdogs to winning out right like they did by 27 points, a 40 points difference! what a display of coaching and work by the MEN on the team….
I hate calling grown adults boys… if you can go to war you are men and the Buffs went to war in hostile territory in the heat and humidity of the aftermath of a hurricane… As 13 plus points under dogs and won outright!
Dominated.
Give them credit America!
glad you mentioned the spread. I wonder how bad a beating vegas took on that 🙂
My only quibble with your commentary is that talk of winning the B12 should be discouraged. I think the conference is there for the taking and CU has as gods a chance as any other team.
Great article. Totally agree with depth and schedule. The schedule one is just a little bit of luck that so many of the better teams are down, the Big12 did us no favors there.
But one big reason I am going from hope to expectation this week is a complete game. I have not seen a complete game since 2016. The defense is playing out of its mind. If the defense can continue to play at this level we will easily pass 6 wins. Shurmur has found enough of a running game to slow down the pass rush. I would like to see a little more of a run game, but I get it when your qb is throwing 80%, maybe just get rid of the wr screen?
Just excited to see the rest of the season. I don’t expect us to play this good against everyone else, but I do expect us to play this well more often than not now. Expectations….
KState has a bye this week too. Which coach will make the best use of the time watching each other’s film and making adjustments? Now is the time if you want to install new wrinkles. You can do it when you dont have a bye. but unfortunately a lot of coaches think its rocket science.
Past time. The Buffs are here. That defense is the difference maker. The o-line continuing improvement is key. But the team has some strengths other teams in the B12 don’t have. Buffs are legit.