“T.I.P.S.” for No. 18 CU v. Utah

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CU v. Utah: “T.I.P.S.” for No. 18 Colorado taking on the Utes

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… Related … If you prefer your predictions verbally (and from more than one voice), “CU at the Game Podcast: ‘T.I.P.S.’ for No. 18 CU v. Utah”, can be found at Apple Podcasts, Google Podcasts, or pretty much wherever you download your favorites. Or, if you would prefer, you can listen to this week’s CU/Utah preview podcast here.

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We’ve been there, done that.

CU fans have lived through so many disappointing seasons that it has seemed for the past two decades or so that the program had set up residency in the land of depressed programs.

So, while Buff fans may not have much sympathy for Utah fans after the Utes’ unexpected fall from the No. 10 team in the nation (after a 4-0 start) to a program scrambling for bowl eligibility (after a five-game losing streak).

CU fans are also all too familiar with heart-breaking losses to bitter rivals, like the one Utah suffered when the Utes were one play away from beating No. 9 BYU. Instead of an exhilarating, season-saving win, the Utes were left with a mind-numbing, gut-wrenching defeat.

In the past, CU teams in similar situations have been hard pressed to rally and finish out a season strong.

Will Utah prove the exception to the rule, and turn a 4-5 debacle into a face-saving bowl bid?

Let’s find out …

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This Week’s “T.I.P.S” for No. 18 CU v. Utah – Saturday, 10:00 a.m., MT, Fox

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T – Talent

It’s difficult to find a greater contrast in styles between CU’s two most recent opponents.

Texas Tech throws the ball, plays with tempo, and has a defense which can’t stop anybody.

Utah, meanwhile, has an offense which is pedestrian at best, tries to slow the game, and has a defense which can stop anybody.

The best way to illustrate the difference in styles:

• The CU/Texas Tech game had a combined 157 plays from scrimmage, with 84 pass attempts, and a combined 739 yards of total offense; while
• Utah/BYU had a combined 117 plays from scrimmage, with 55 pass attempts, and a combined 598 yards of total offense.

Yup  … 40 fewer plays from scrimmage. Basically, BYU and Utah played three quarters of football compared to CU and Texas Tech.

With quarterback Cam Rising out for the season (again), the Utes have struggled on offense. Coach Kyle Whittingham turned to sophomore Brandon Rose to start at quarterback against BYU. In his first career start, Rose went 12-for-21 for 112 yards, with two touchdowns and an interception, but Rose suffered a season-ending injury against the Cougars.

Now who?

The most likely choice is true freshman Isaac Wilson, who was the starter for five games (going 2-3) after Cam Rising went down. Wilson last played against Houston. In his four Big 12 starts, the Utah offense only reached 20 points once, a 22-19 win over Oklahoma State. In his other three games, the Utes scored 31 points – all losses (23-10 to Arizona; 13-7 to TCU; and 17-14 to Houston). In those three games, Wilson never hit 60% in completions, had three touchdowns and three interceptions, and was sacked nine times.

The other option? Amazingly enough … Luke Bottari. In three seasons at Utah, Bottari has only seen action in one game … the 2023 regular season finale against Colorado. In that game, with CU being led by Ryan Staub, Bottari led the Utes to a 23-17 victory, going 6-for-10 passing, for 79 yards (Bottari had five carries for 11 yards – and two touchdowns).

The Ute offense, already anemic (362.9 ypg. of total offense; 92nd nationally; 22.6 ppg., 105th nationally), took a hit last Saturday when star tight end Brant Kuithe, who had two of Utah’s three touchdowns against BYU, and who had 35 catches for over 500 yards and six touchdowns on the season, was lost with yet another season-ending injury.

The Buff defense can now focus its attention on former USC wide receiver Dorian Singer, who leads the Utes with 616 receiving yards, as Utah’s only real downfield threat.

With a quarterback potentially making his first road start, Utah will want to lean on its strong rushing attack. Senior running back Micah Bernard is the player the Buffs want to stop. Bernard has 147 carries for 840 yards and three touchdowns, and is also good for two or three receptions per game.

While the Utah offense may struggle to get to 20 points in a game, the Utes path to winning rests in their defense holding the opposition under 20 points as well. Utah is giving up only 17.1 points per game (11th nationally), and only 307.4 yards per game (14th nationally).

Utah’s best bet: A boring war of attrition, and a 17-13 upset.

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I – Intangibles

Frustration: Utah … It’s been a long, difficult season for Utah. The Utes were the preseason media pick to win the Big 12 (CU was picked to finish 11th), and was ranked 12th in the preseason Associated Press poll.

Utah opened the season 4-0, including what at the time appeared to be an impressive road win over No. 14 Oklahoma State (the first of OSU’s seven straight losses). Then, quarterback Cam Rising got hurt (again), and the Utes unraveled.

Since opening 4-0, the Utes have gone 0-5 (sounds like CU’s 2023 season, just without the national coverage – and national scrutiny).

Against No. 9 BYU, the Utes had the chance to not only end their losing streak, and to keep hope for a bowl bid alive, but to put a dagger in the national title hopes of their hated rival.

With less than two minutes to play against BYU, the dream finish came to fruition. On fourth-and-ten at BYU’s own ten yard line, the Utes sacked the BYU quarterback at the Cougar one-yard line. Game over! Delirium for the largest crowd in Rice-Eccles stadium … But … the Utes were called for defensive holding on the play. With new life, the BYU offense marched down the field, kicking the winning 44-yard field goal with four seconds remaining.

“This game was absolutely stolen from us,” Utah athletic director Mark Harlan said. “We were excited about being in the Big 12, but tonight I am not. We won this game. Someone else stole it from us. Very disappointed.

“I will talk to the commissioner. This was not fair to our team. I’m disgusted by the professionalism of the officiating crew tonight.”

Harlan has since been fined $40,000 by the Big 12 conference, but Harlan was not alone in feeling that the Utes had the game won. Without the penalty, the Utes would have taken over on downs (at the BYU one yard line), and stuck it to the hated Cougars.

Honest question: Can the Ute players rebound from such a low, with the season officially spinning out of control?

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Frustration: Colorado … For CU, the game scenario against Utah is unlike almost they have faced this season. The Colorado offense is used to having many opportunities to score. The Buffs opened the Texas Tech game with four straight punts, but responded to score on their next five possessions to take control of the game.

They may not get that many opportunities against the Utes.

Not only does Utah have an excellent defense, a defense which can frustrate the best of offenses, but has an offense which plays, well, deliberately. The Utes are seventh in the nation in time of possession.

Translation: Utah is going to try and take the air out of the ball, play keep away on offense, and limit CU’s opportunities to score.

Honest question: Will the CU players – and the Folsom Field crowd – be patient enough for the Buff offense to take advantage of its reduced possessions?

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P – Preparation/Schedule

Whether the Weather Matters … It’s now November, which means that weather can always be a factor.

With a 10:00 a.m., MT, kickoff, it’s going to be sunny, but chilly. The high for Saturday is predicted to be 50-degrees, but it won’t be 50 at 10:00 a.m.

Cooler weather would seemingly favor the team which wants to run the ball – Utah – but with no rain likely, it’s a fairly minimal advantage for the Utes.

Players – and attendees – should dress in layers.

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In Search of Six … This time of the season, Colorado is usually the team which is squinting at the upcoming schedule, trying to find a way to 2-3 more wins and bowl eligibility. Meanwhile Utah, this time of year, is normally not only bowl eligible, but sorting through title game scenarios.

This year, the roles are reversed. While CU is nationally ranked, and being discussed (with a straight face) as a College Football Playoff aspirant, Utah is 4-5, and must find two wins in its final three games to get to bowl eligibility.

The Utes finish with No. 18 Colorado on the road, then return home to face an Iowa State which just fell out of the AP poll, then travel to Orlando to face UCF on Black Friday. Iowa State gets a chance to right its ship against Cincinnati this weekend before facing the Utes, while UCF, at 4-6, must beat West Virginia and Utah to get to bowl eligibility.

The Utes, on a five-game losing streak, may be hard-pressed to win two of their final three games … so you know they are coming to Boulder desperate to beat the Buffs.

The Buffs, meanwhile, have their eyes on their own schedule. After the Utes, Colorado has Kansas (presently 3-6) and Oklahoma State (presently 3-7). Just like Texas Tech was, on paper, the most difficult game remaining on CU’s schedule last weekend, Utah may be, at least on paper, the most difficult game remaining on CU’s schedule this weekend (though a good argument that the road game against a resurgent Kansas team may prove to be the toughest test remaining).

Can CU handle business as a double-digit favorite, not exactly a position the Buffs are used to being in?

We’ll see …

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S – Statistics 

During the 2022 season, this section was largely devoted to two headings: “How bad is the Colorado offense?”, with a listing of all the categories in which the Buffs were ranked 100th or worse nationally on offense, and, “How bad is the Colorado defense?” with similar 100th-or-worse listings.

Now, with the exception of rushing yards per game on offense (78.3 ypg., 131st nationally) and sacks allowed on defense (29, 120th nationally – though only five in the past three games), CU’s stats are on par with most of their peers, and well above average in others. In many areas, the Buffs are excelling in national and Big 12 numbers. For example …

–The Colorado defense leads the Big 12 in:

• Sacks (29)
• Fumbles recovered (9)
• Red zone % (70.6)

— The Colorado offense leads the Big 12 in:

• Passing TDs (24)
• Passing Completion % (72)
• Passing Efficiency (161.2)

— Sack Attack … Thanks to Brian Howell at the Daily Camera for this gem:

• The number of games the CU defense had seven or more sacks in CU’s entire run as a Pac-12 team: 1 (and only four games total dating back to 2000)
• The number of games the CU defense had seven or more sacks in the past three games: 2

— Also …

• CU’s record in road games under Coach Prime … 6-5
• CU’s record in road games the last 11 games before Coach Prime … 0-11

— The World Turned Upside Down Dept. … Colorado is a 9.5-point favorite against Utah. This is the 14th consecutive year they’ve played each other and only the 2nd time CU has been favored (Buffs were a 9.0-point favorite in 2016). The last three seasons, with both teams in the Pac-12: Utah was favored by 20, 29 and 24 points.

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Prediction … 

For last weekend’s game against Texas Tech, the best bet was to take the over.

It took a Shilo Sanders score in the final minute to get there, but the Buffs and Red Raiders did top the over/under of 62.5 points.

This weekend, the better option might be to take the under.

The over/under is way down for CU v. Utah, going from 62.5 points last weekend to 47.5 points this weekend … That’s a huge shift from one CU opponent to the next.

And it’s with good reason.

Utah always has a good defense. The Utes have used a strong defense and a ball-control, eat-time-off-the-clock rushing offense to wear down and throttle opponents. With an anemic offense without start quarterback Cam Rising, the game plan for the Utes has gone even more into a shell.

The Utes best chance at beating the Buffs is to keep the ball out of Shedeur Sanders’ hands, to methodically move the ball down the field, and wait for the Buffs to make mistakes on defense, and/or turn the ball over on offense. Oh, and make a few exceptional plays on special teams.

I’m looking for an uncomfortable start for the Buffs and the Buff Nation, but, in the end, the CU offense will make enough plays to score in the 20s, and the CU defense will keep Utah shy of that mark.

Prediction … Colorado 27, Utah 17

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2024 Season (Straight up: 8-1; Against the Spread: 8-1)

• Prediction: Colorado 34, North Dakota State 20 … Actual: Colorado 31, North Dakota State 26
• Prediction: Nebraska 31, Colorado 24 … Actual: Nebraska 28, Colorado 10
• Prediction: Colorado 34, Colorado State 24 … Actual: Colorado 28, Colorado State 9
• Prediction: Colorado 27, Baylor 24 … Actual: Colorado 38, Baylor 31, OT
• Prediction: Central Florida 35, Colorado 24 … Actual: Colorado 48, Central Florida 21
• Prediction: No. 18 Kansas State 31, Colorado 27 … Actual: No. 18 Kansas State 31, Colorado 28
• Prediction: Colorado 28, Arizona 24 … Actual: Colorado 34, Arizona 7
• Prediction: Colorado 28, Cincinnati 20 … Actual: Colorado 34, Cincinnati 23
• Prediction: No. 21 Colorado 38, Texas Tech 30 … Actual: No. 21 Colorado 41, Texas Tech 27

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2023 Predictions … (Straight up: 8-4; Against the Spread: 7-5) …
2022 Predictions … (Straight up: 10-2; Against the Spread: 9-3) …
2021 Predictions … (Straight up: 9-3; Against the Spread: 7-5) …

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This post, about the Texas Tech game, from the 2024 Season, is filed under Article.
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