“T.I.P.S.” for CU v. Cincinnati

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CU at Arizona: “T.I.P.S.” for CU’s Family Weekend “Blackout”

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… Related … If you prefer your predictions verbally (and from more than one voice), “CU at the Game Podcast: ‘T.I.P.S.’ for CU v. Cincinnati”, can be found at Apple Podcasts, Google Podcasts, or pretty much wherever you download your favorites. Or, if you would prefer, you can listen to this week’s CU/Cincinnati preview podcast here.

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Colorado, coming off of a 4-8 season in 2023, with a 1-8 record in Pac-12 play, didn’t get much respect from the Big 12 media in the 2024 preseason poll, with the Buffs picked to finish 11th.

Cincinnati, coming off of a 3-9 season in 2023, with a 1-8 record in the Bearcats’ first season in the Big 12, didn’t get much respect from the Big 12 media in the 2024 preseason poll, with the Bearcats picked to finish 14th.

Two months later, Colorado is 5-2, 3-1 in Big 12 play.

Two months later, Cincinnati is 5-2, 3-1 in Big 12 play.

The winner of the game in Boulder Saturday night (8:15 p.m., MT, ESPN), will, surprisingly, be in the race for a berth in the Big 12 championship game.

The Buffs opened as a 3.5-point favorite. Taking into account the usual three-point advantage given to home teams, Las Vegas is seeing the game between Colorado and Cincinnati close to a pick ’em.

How will the most recent late late late night in Boulder play out?

Let’s find out …

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This Week’s “T.I.P.S” for CU v. Cincinnati – Saturday, 8:15 p.m., MT, ESPN

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T – Talent

Cincinnati quarterback Brendan Sorsby may be one of the best quarterbacks in the nation you’ve never heard of. Sorsby, a transfer from Indiana, has almost 2,000 yards passing this fall (1,928 – 14th in the nation), with 13 touchdowns with only four interceptions. When called upon, Sorsby can sling it, with 426 yards passing and four touchdowns in a 44-41 shootout loss in Lubbock.

Sorsby’s favorite target has been senior wide receiver Xzavier Henderson, who has 42 catches for 541 yards and four touchdowns. Overall, Cincinnati isn’t afraid to air it out, with the Bearcats 25th in the nation in passing, averaging 279.0 yards per game.

The rushing attack is ably manned by senior running back Corey Kiner, who already has 106 carries on the season, going for 598 yards and two touchdowns (for comparison’s sake, CU has 522 rushing yards … as a team).

Overall, the Bearcats have a very balanced attack, averaging 30 points and 451.4 yards per game (24th nationally).

So … The defense isn’t all that great, right?

Well, the Bearcat defensive has a first-team preseason All-Big 12 pick in defensive lineman Dontay Corleone. There was a question as to whether Corleone would be able to pay at all this season, as he had issues with blood clots, but he has been cleared to play, and has three sacks so far this fall. 

As to the Cincinnati defense overall, there may be problems for the Buff offense. The best way to attack the Bearcat defense, as it turns out, is to run the ball. Cincinnati is 97th in rushing defense, giving up over 168 yards per game.

Oh, wait, the pass defense isn’t all that great, either, with the Bearcats giving up 228 yards per game (88th nationally).

All that adds up to a defense which is 100th in total defense, surrendering almost 400 yards per game.

So, then, how is Cincinnati 5-2, 3-1 in Big 12, and only six points short of being undefeated?

Because the Bearcat defense is a bend-but-don’t-break defense. Cincinnati may give up yards, but they don’t give up points. Opponents are posting less than 20 points per game, 28th in the nation in scoring defense.

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I – Intangibles

Who has more momentum? … Both teams come into the game with confidence. Colorado played a complete game on the road against Arizona, coming away with a satisfying 34-7 victory. The Buff offense was humming, and the Buff defense played perhaps its best game of the Coach Prime era.

Cincinnati, meanwhile, won its second game in a row, defeating Arizona State, 24-14. The Sun Devils came into the game with a 5-1 record, but also played without its starting quarterback, relying on backup Jeff Sims (last seen by Buff fans turning the ball over with reckless abandon as Nebraska’s quarterback last season in Boulder). Cincinnati used a balanced attack (206 yards passing; 201 yards rushing) and 35 minutes of possession time to wear down Arizona State.

Both teams have to be feeling pretty good about themselves. Both teams were given an over/under season win total of 5.5 wins.

One will get win No. 6 – and bowl eligibility – before the end of October.

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Close Games …The Bearcats blew a 27-6 second-half lead against the Pittsburgh Panthers, ultimately falling, 28-27, and missed a final-second field goal in a three-point loss to the Texas Tech Red Raiders.

Those are Cincinnati’s two losses on the season. Six points the other way, and we’d be talking about an undefeated Cincinnati team.

That being said, Cincinnati only had a one score lead over the Towson Tigers in the season opener, and a one-score lead against Miami (Ohio) in the fourth quarter, and only had a once score lead against UCF in the fourth quarter.

So, Cincinnati has a penchant for playing close games … Which way will the CU game go?

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P – Preparation/Schedule

Once upon a time … CU and Cincinnati have only played once before, with the Buffs winning big, 56-14.

Not that the previous game between the Buffs and the Bearcats will have much impact on Saturday’s game, seeing as it was played long before any of the current players on either roster were born. In fact, the only CU/Cincinnati game was played before many of the parents of the current players were born.

The two teams met on September 16, 1972, when the Buffs – ranked No. 2 in the nation at the time, mind you – steamrolled the Bearcats, 56-14, before a sold out Folsom Field crowd of 50,171. (In case you were wondering, the Buffs finished the 1972 season with an 8-4 record. CU gave Oklahoma its only loss of the season. The Buffs finished the season ranked No. 16 in the nation after a Gator Bowl loss to No. 6 Auburn).

So, little history between the two schools …

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Height advantage? … Cincinnati, Ohio, has an elevation of 551 feet, quite a bit short of the 5,430 feet elevation at which CU players are used to playing. That being said, the Bearcats did have their first opportunity to play at elevation (and in the Mountain Time Zone) during their first foray west as a new member of the Big 12 last season. Cincinnati took a trip to Provo, Utah, last season, to play (elevation 4,551 feet), falling to BYU, 35-27.

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Late night … The Bearcats have played only one night game this season, a 6:00 p.m., local time kickoff at Texas Tech (a 44-41 loss). In fact, four of Cincinnati’s seven games have kicked off at noon eastern (10:00 a.m., MT). The last time Cincinnati had a late night kickoff (8:15 p.m., MT; 10:15 p.m., ET) was last season’s game at BYU.

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S – Statistics 

— Defense … Where to start? CU is ranked 13th in the nation in sacks, after picking up seven against Arizona (an offense which had surrendered only six sacks in its first six games).

Through seven games, Colorado leads the conference in sacks with 12 players having registered a sack. CU is also No. 6 in the nation in solo tackles for loss, and No. 19 in total tackles for loss.

Colorado is currently averaging 3.0 sacks per game. If the Buffs can keep that up, that’ll be 36 for the regular season. That would be the most by a CU team during the regular season since 1992. (The 2016 team had 36, but 3 of those came in the postseason). The all-time CU record? 41, by both the 1990 and 1992 teams.

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— Offensive Line … The offensive line has given up two sacks or fewer in four of CU’s seven games. In three of those games, he was only sacked once. Last year, Shedeur did not have a single game where he was sacked less than three times. There were nine times where he was sacked four times or more. There were six times where he was sacked five times or more. There were also three times where he was sacked seven times or more.

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— Second half defense … Colorado has outscored opponents 107-43 after halftime this year. The defense is giving up just a shade over six points per game after the break, meaning if the contest is close, the Buffs love their chances in the second half.

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— Third downs making a difference … Offensively, the Buffs are 34th in the nation in third-down conversions, successfully moving the sticks on 42 of 94 attempts (45 percent). Defensively, CU is 38th in the nation on third down, limiting opponents to a 34 percent success rate (34-for-99).

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Prediction … 

It’s fun being a Buff fan these past few days.

Last weekend, in CU’s 34-7 rout of Arizona, the Buffs found a rushing attack, and the offensive line protected the quarterback. The defense posted seven sacks, holding the Wildcats to 3-of-11 on third downs.

Will it last?

A few weeks ago, the Buffs rolled Central Florida, 48-21, but were unable to sustain the momentum. Granted, when you lose in the final minutes to a nationally ranked team, it’s hard to accuse the Buffs of reading their press clippings, but it was still a loss, and it left the Buffs with the same 4-2 first half record that they had last season.

If CU had stumbled against Arizona, fear of another second half collapse would have crept back into the hearts and minds of the Buff Nation.

Instead, the Buffs took it to the Wildcats, playing one of their best games in memory.

Can they sustain the momentum, and get to Win No. 6 before their second bye?

It will be tough. Cincinnati has a stingy defense, and a ball control offense which will frustrate CU fans as they watch the game clock tick away without the Buffs pulling away.

It will be a late night, but it will, ultimately, be worth the wait.

Prediction … Colorado 28, Cincinnati 20

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2024 Season (Straight up: 6-1; Against the Spread: 6-1)

• Prediction: Colorado 34, North Dakota State 20 … Actual: Colorado 31, North Dakota State 26
• Prediction: Nebraska 31, Colorado 24 … Actual: Nebraska 28, Colorado 10
• Prediction: Colorado 34, Colorado State 24 … Actual: Colorado 28, Colorado State 9
• Prediction: Colorado 27, Baylor 24 … Actual: Colorado 38, Baylor 31, OT
• Prediction: Central Florida 35, Colorado 24 … Actual: Colorado 48, Central Florida 21
• Prediction: No. 18 Kansas State 31, Colorado 27 … Actual: No. 18 Kansas State 31, Colorado 28
• Prediction: Colorado 28, Arizona 24 … Actual: Colorado 34, Arizona 7

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2023 Predictions … (Straight up: 8-4; Against the Spread: 7-5) …
2022 Predictions … (Straight up: 10-2; Against the Spread: 9-3) …
2021 Predictions … (Straight up: 9-3; Against the Spread: 7-5) …

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This post, about the Cincinnati game, from the 2024 Season, is filed under Article.
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