“T.I.P.S.” for CU v. Baylor

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CU v. Baylor: Buffs first Big 12 Conference game since 2010

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… Related … If you prefer your predictions verbally (and from more than one voice), “CU at the Game Podcast: ‘T.I.P.S.’ for CU v. Baylor”, can be found at Apple Podcasts, Google Podcasts, or pretty much wherever you download your favorites. Or, if you would prefer, you can listen to this week’s CU/Baylor preview podcast here .

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The week after the Nebraska game, the Buff Nation was in a sorry state. Losing to the hated Huskers was one thing, but the manner by which the Buffs lost was demoralizing.

Sure, the Buffs had fallen behind the Cornhuskers early in games before. Yes, the Buffs had been routed by the Cornhuskers before. But, early into the second season of the Coach Prime era, the 28-10 loss, with the Buffs down 28-0 at the half, was hard to take due how much the loss to Nebraska resembled all of CU’s losses in October and November last season.

A week later, the Buff Nation is in a better mood. Not only did the Buffs take down Little Brother Colorado State, but did so showing that there was some semblance of a running game, some semblance of an offensive line, and a defense which has now given up only one touchdown in the last six quarters of play.

Which CU team will show up in Folsom against Baylor? Las Vegas isn’t sure, with the Buffs installed as a one-point favorite.

How will CU’s Homecoming game turnout?

Let’s find out …

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This Week’s “T.I.P.S” for CU v. Baylor – Saturday, 6:00 p.m., MT, Fox

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T – Talent

Baylor has been a mixed bag of success and frustration for its fans so far this season.

The Bears had no problems in their opener against a team called Tarleton State, struggled mightily on the road in a loss to Utah, then had a tale of two halves this past weekend against Air Force.

Baylor went to halftime only up 6-3 against the Falcons, but that was more due to Air Force playing keep away with the football, holding the ball for over 23 minutes of first half game clock. Then, in the second half, Baylor got its act together, pulling away for a 31-3 rout.

The Buffs may have to prepare for two quarterbacks. Toledo transfer Dequan Finn won the starting job, but missed the Air Force game after suffering a rib injury against Utah. In his place, Sawyer Robertson got the start against the Falcons. The 6-foot-4, 220-pound redshirt junior played in six games in 2023 for the Bears after transferring from Mississippi State, went 18-for-24 against Air Force, going for 248 yards, with no touchdowns and no interceptions (Robertson did have a six-yard scoring run in the game).

If the Bears are unsure about their passing game, they can rely on their running game. Against Air Force, the Bears ran for 230 yards … more rushing yards than Air Force posted (193) and more rushing yards than Colorado has run for in the first three games of the season combined (184).

Against Air Force, it was freshman Bryson Washington, who made the most of his first 12 carries of the season, going for 106 yards and a touchdown. Baylor’s leading rusher on the season overall is sophomore Dawson Pendergrass, who has 144 yards on the season … but had only four carries for 13 yards against Air Force. But … the real threat may be Richard Reese, who was rated by Lindy’s as a first-team All Big 12 All-Purpose performer.

On the receiving side, Baylor has three wideouts with over 100 yards on the season. The Buffs will need to keep an eye on tight end Michael Trigg, who leads the team with ten receptions so far this fall (going for 109 yards and a touchdown).

The Baylor defense ranked 110th in total defense and 113th in scoring defense last season. Embattled head coach Dave Aranda took over the defense this off-season, making him the only FBS head coach calling his own defense. The entire secondary is back, but the defensive line remains a work in progress.

That being said, the early returns have been positive. True, Tarleton State, a Cam Rising-less Utah offense (in the second half), and a struggling Air Force offense may not be a fully true test, but the stat sheet shows that Baylor has only given up 29 points in three games (12th in the nation).

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I – Intangibles

Just a regular game … For the first time in the 2024 season, Buffs won’t be playing a team which considers the Colorado game to be their Super Bowl.

FBS-killer North Dakota State really wanted to beat the Buffs … Nebraska really wanted to beat the Buffs … and Colorado State really really wanted to beat the Buffs.

The Baylor Bears, former Big 12 rivals, certainly have a strong desire to beat Colorado, but there isn’t the sense of urgency, and the outright distain/hatred that other fan bases have for the Buffs.

It’s not that CU and Baylor don’t have a history. In 2010, when the world of college football was going through one of its tectonic shifts, the Pac-10 was looking to expand. Colorado, Texas A&M, Texas and Oklahoma were the targets, which bothered Baylor to no end. A smear campaign was launched by the powers that be in Waco, and many in the Buff Nation have never forgotten.

But the current coaching staff and locker room don’t care about that history, and that can be a good thing. Largely out of the national spotlight since the debacle in Lincoln, the Buff players can focus on the task at hand, and take care of business on the field.

And that could be a good thing.

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Go for the Green … If you think about it, there aren’t too many teams in college football which have green as their dominant school color. In the 69 Power Four, there is Oregon, Michigan State, Baylor, and … ? Notre Dame sometimes wears green; Stanford’s tree is in the logo, but I don’t remember the Cardinal ever playing in green uniforms.

Not that it matters, but North Dakota State’s colors are green and gold, Colorado State’s colors are green and gold, and …  Baylor’s colors are green and gold. The Buffs won the first two games against green and gold opponents … just sayin’.

(That being said, the Buffs were mauled by the Big Red of Nebraska, and five of CU’s remaining nine opponents have red as one of their primary colors).

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Speaking of Oregon … Last season, in the first year of Coach Prime, the flailing Pac-12 wanted to maximize the publicity Coach Prime and the Buffs were receiving, and scheduled the Buffs to open conference play on the road against Oregon, before returning home to face USC. It made sense for the Pac-12, and proved smart as CU faded on the field and in the national consciousness as the season went on. The featuring of CU against the blue bloods of the conference helped ratings, but didn’t help the Buffs maintain early momentum.

This year, the Buffs not only get to start conference play at home, but against a team which finished 3-9 in 2023. It’s a golden opportunity to move the program forward with a momentum sustaining victory.

Can the Buffs come through?

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P – Preparation/Schedule

Technically, the Buffs are coming off of a two-game road trip, their only back-to-back road games of the season.

That’s one way of looking at CU’s schedule.

Another is that CU is basically getting its only two-game home stand of the season. With the Buffs only having to travel 40 miles to Ft. Collins, and having the Bears come to Folsom, the Buffs are avoiding the airport for back-to-back games.

Baylor, meanwhile, played two of its three non-conference games this season at home. The Bears’ one road game to date was against Utah – also at altitude – and Baylor was out-classed. With Cam Rising in the game, the Utes raced to a 23-0 second quarter lead. After Rising left the game with a hand injury, Baylor salvaged a 23-12 final … which was 23-6 before the Bears scored its only touchdown with less than a minute remaining.

On the other hand … Last season, Baylor won its only two Big 12 games on the road, taking down UCF, 36-35, and Cincinnati, 32-39. Not going the rabbit hole of how many starters for the Bears were on the field last fall for those games, but those that were will not lose confidence in a close game on the road.

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Changing gears … Last weekend, Air Force ran the ball 56 times, and passed the ball … eight times.

Last weekend, Colorado ran the ball 19 times, and passed the ball … 49 times.

Suffice it to say, Baylor coaches and players weren’t spending the last week prepping for CU’s offense. Baylor’s offense, though, is not all that different than what the Buffs played against in Ft. Collins last weekend.

Preparation advantage: Colorado.

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S – Statistics 

— Penalties … The Buffs committed only three penalties (for 30 yards) in the opener against Northern Colorado, but have been in triple digits in yards stepped off in the past two games (nine for 104 yards v. Nebraska; 12 for 115 yards v. Colorado State). It’s only a matter of time before an untimely penalty (like the holding penalty which brought back a 39-yard completion to Jimmy Horn on Saturday night) comes back to bite the Buffs. Hopefully, in their second game this fall in Folsom, the Buffs will have the same penalty numbers they had against North Dakota State;

— Buffs’ defense really improving? … Defensively, the Buffs have been lights out in the second half, allowing a total of 12 points after intermission. However, they’ve allowed 51 points in the first halves of the first three games. The effort in the first half against CSU was a marked improvement over the first two games, with the Buffs giving up only three points and 116 yards to the Rams. With that effort, the CU defense has only given up one touchdown in the past six quarters? Can the CU defense keep that up?;

— Offensive balance … The Buffs were able to run the ball against the Rams, at least when they chose to run. Almost dared to run the ball by the way the CSU defense set up for each play, the Colorado offense ran the ball … all of 19 times.

The Buffs did average 5.7 yards per carry against Rams, giving some hope for the future. But Coach Prime, Pat Shurmur, and/or Shedeur Sanders will have to take advantage of rushing opportunities when they are presented.

The number to look for in the post-game stats? Number of rushing attempts. If the Buffs have over 20 carries (excluding the possibility that eight of those are sacks or Shedeur scrambles), I like CU’s chances against the Bears.

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Prediction … 

What a difference a week makes.

A week after the Buffs were left for dead.

The offensive line was just as bad as it was during CU’s spiral into a 4-8 season … if not worse.

The CU rushing attack was not existent, just as bad as the last-in-the-nation rushing attack in 2023 … if not worse.

The Buff defense was problematic – if not porous, just like last year … if not worse.

A week later, the Buffs are on the rebound. The offensive line was productive, the rushing attack produced over 100 yards, and the defense showed flashes of excellence.

Where will the Buffs be a week from now?

Baylor has shown signs of improvement, but this is still a team rebounding from a 3-9 season. The Buffs will be at home, playing before a sold out “White Out” and a national television audience.

Will it be enough?

Just enough …

Prediction … Colorado 27, Baylor 24

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2024 Season (Straight up: 3-0; Against the Spread: 2-1)

• Prediction: Colorado 34, North Dakota State 20 … Actual: Colorado 31, North Dakota State 26
• Prediction: Nebraska 31, Colorado 24 … Actual: Nebraska 28, Colorado 10
• Prediction: Colorado 34, Colorado State 24 … Actual: Colorado 28, Colorado State 9

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2023 Predictions … (Straight up: 8-4; Against the Spread: 7-5) …
2022 Predictions … (Straight up: 10-2; Against the Spread: 9-3) …
2021 Predictions … (Straight up: 9-3; Against the Spread: 7-5) …

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This post, about the Baylor game, from the 2024 Season, is filed under Article.
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