“T.I.P.S.” for CU at Nebraska

—

CU at Nebraska: Buffs looking for fourth straight win over Cornhuskers

—

… Related … If you prefer your predictions verbally (and from more than one voice), “CU at the Game Podcast: ‘T.I.P.S.’ for CU at Nebraska”, can be found at Apple Podcasts, Google Podcasts, or pretty much wherever you download your favorites. Or, if you would prefer, you can listen to this week’s CU/Nebraska preview podcast here .

—

Dare to dream.

Dream of a fourth straight win over the hated Huskers. Dream of carrying a win streak over the Corn well into the future (with no additional games planned between the two teams, it will take realignment or a bowl game to get the two teams back on the same field after this weekend).

Dream of a 2-0 Colorado team once again being able to quiet the naysayers … at least for another week.

The Buffs are 6.5-point underdogs to the Cornhuskers. Some of that love being shown Nebraska is due to CU’s lackluster performance against North Dakota State. Some of that love being shown Nebraska is due to the Cornhuskers rolling UTEP in its opener.

Some of that love being shown Nebraska is due to the national media being convinced, once again, that this is the year that this is the year that the Cornhuskers will get over the hump and post a winning record and get to a bowl game (for the first time since 2016).

Will Year Two of the Matt Rhule era in Lincoln include a win over Colorado, or will the Buffs once again spoil the Husker Nation’s dreams?

Let’s find out …

—

This Week’s “T.I.P.S” for CU at Nebraska – Saturday, 5:30 p.m., MT, NBC

—

T – Talent

If there is one saving grace about Colorado not being in the Big Ten (yet), is that Buff fans won’t have to spend the next three or four years hearing about how great a quarterback Nebraska has in Dylan Raiola.

Yes, Raiola was a five-star recruit, a prospect who had committed to Ohio State and Georgia before finally signing with Nebraska. The Husker Nation, though, in crowing over the recruiting coup, quietly ignores the in-house advantage Nebraska had in recruiting their new quarterback (Raiola’s father was an All-Big 12 center at Nebraska, and Raiola’s uncle is currently the offensive line coach for the Cornhuskers).

Raiola may be the second coming of Patrick Mahomes (at least Raiola thinks so), but the fact is that Raiola’s career collegiate stats are as follows:

• One game (against a UTEP team which finished 3-9 last year, and was ranked No. 126 out of 134 FBS teams by Lindy’s this preseason; No. 131 by Athlon): 19-of-27 for 238 yards and two touchdowns.

Compare … Shedeur Sanders’ career stats:

• 937-of-1360 (68.9%), for 10,638 yards and 101 touchdowns, with 18 interceptions.

Heading into Game Two of the 2024 season, which quarterback would you rather have under center? Raiola may prove to be all that and a bag of chips, but Shedeur is a senior projected to be a first round NFL Draft pick next April. Who would you rather have under center for a big rivalry game?

Now, what does Raiola have to work with?

Nebraska was returning four starters along its offensive line, but left tackle Teddy Prochazka was lost for the season during fall camp. The rushing attack is led by Emmett Johnson, who had 411 yards rushing last year, and led the team in the opener, with 71 yards on only eight carries.

The passing offense, which was 126th in the nation last season, will be much improved this fall. In addition to bringing in Raiola to lead the offense, Texas transfer Isaiah Neyor (six catches for 121 yards and a touchdown v. UTEP) and Wake Forest transfer wide receiver Jahmal Banks (four catches for 61 yards and a touchdown) will look to give the CU secondary a long evening.

While the Nebraska offense will need to make significant strides to get Nebraska to its first bowl game since 2016, a stout defense is already in place.

The Buffs put up 36 points against the Cornhuskers last season (the only team other than national champion Michigan to score more than 24 points), but it was the Nebraska offense and its four turnovers which most of the damage to the Cornhuskers’ chances in Boulder. Otherwise, the Nebraska defense was impressive last fall, finishing the 2023 season ranked 11th in the nation in total defense and 13th in scoring defense.

This season, seven starters return, including all of the defensive linemen. For a Colorado offense looking to establish a running game and protect its quarterback, the matchup of the new CU offensive line v. Nebraska’s strong defensive line will be telling.

If the CU offensive line can create space for its running backs, and give Shedeur time to throw, there are some holes in the linebacker corps and in the secondary to exploit … but that’s a big if. On the other hand, if the Cornhuskers can keep the Buffs from running the ball, and rush Shedeur effectively with only four lineman, points could be at a premium for the Buffs.

—

I – Intangibles

We’ve already discussed (“Everyone’s Super Bowl“) how much this game means to Nebraska and its fan base.

Last season, with Nebraska, the Fox Big Noon Kickoff Show, and a national ranking all hitting Boulder at the same time the CU/Nebraska game took on even greater meaning.

But the rivalry itself was new to the players.

“This is the game that everybody wants to win,” wide receiver Jimmy Horn said during the week leading up to the 2023 game in Boulder. “We could play 1,000 games, we could go to bowl games and all that, but this rivalry game, even hearing from fans, they’re like, ‘I don’t care if y’all lose 100 games, as long as y’all beat Nebraska y’all will be good.’ I know people take this one serious. As players, we’ve got to take it as serious as them.”

This fall, with the taste of the 36-14 defeat still fresh in most of the Nebraska’s players’ mouths, and the lingering agony of a three-game losing streak to CU hanging over Lincoln like a permanent black cloud, the hype for this rematch is going to be unlike any other in Lincoln.

Beat Iowa? Love it. Upset Ohio State in Columbus? A dream come true.

But what the Husker Nation wants more than anything this fall is to beat Colorado.

Now, will that prove to be a positive motivational force for the Cornhuskers? Or will the pressure of the moment prove to be too much for the Huskers and their true freshman quarterback?

On the CU side of the field, how important will the Nebraska game be to Coach Prime and his Buffs?

If they remember last season’s game, it shouldn’t take much to get up for this game.

Nebraska Matt Rhule spent much of the off-season before the 2023 campaign talking about he wanted to build his team the “right way”, not through massive transfer changeover like what Coach Prime was doing. Then there was the shoving match pregame where some Nebraska players lingered just a bit too long on the CU logo.

“It was extremely personal,” Shedeur Sanders said of the incident. “We go out there to warm up and you got the head coach for the other team (Matt Rhule) trying to stand in the middle of the Buff. It’s OK if a couple of players do it, it’s fine. Just enjoy the scenery, but when you’ve got a whole team trying to disrespect it, I’m not going for that at all, so I went in there and disrupted it”.

For the Buffs last season, the game against the Cornhuskers became “personal”, and CU dominated.

Will the game in Lincoln be “personal” for the Buffs?

—

P – Preparation/Schedule

Colorado’s opener against North Dakota State was moved by ESPN from the Saturday of opening weekend to Thursday night, giving the Buffs a showcase moment.

The Buffs delivered a victory, but also a ratings bump, with an average of 4.8 million viewers, the highest for a Thursday night opener for ESPN since 2017 (a Big Ten matchup between No. 2 Ohio State and Indiana), and a 49% bump over Utah’s Thursday night season opening win over Florida in 2023.

Moving the game also gave an extra two days for the Buffs to prepare for the Cornhuskers, who played their Week One game against UTEP on Saturday. While healing up from their game against North Dakota State, the CU coaches and players were able to sit back and watch Nebraska, a 28-point favorite, take care of hapless UTEP, 40-7.

Advantage, Colorado?

Yes, but …

— Last season, Nebraska played Minnesota on Thursday night of opening week, with two extra days to prepare for Colorado, with the Buffs having to go on the road to face No. 17 TCU in Week One … and we know how that game turned out; and

— You also have to look at the bigger picture here. While Colorado had an opener against FBS-buster North Dakota State, and will face another rival hungry to topple the Prime train next weekend in Ft. Collins next weekend, the Cornhuskers don’t have such issues. After taking on UTEP and Colorado, the Cornhuskers will stay home for a third straight game next weekend to face … Northern Iowa.

In fact, Nebraska only leaves Lincoln once this season before October 19th, and doesn’t face a single FBS team which finished with a winning record in 2023 until the Cornhuskers travel to Columbus to face Ohio State on October 26th.

So … While Colorado has had two extra days to prepare for their Game Two opponent, one could make the argument that the Colorado game is the most important – and most prepared for – game Nebraska will be preparing for in the first two months of the season.

—

S – Statistics 

— Sacks … Nebraska coach Matt Rhule has a thing for Coach Prime. From his comments about not building his team through the Transfer Portal to his snide remarks about not having cameras follow him around, it’s clear that Coach Prime is living rent-free in Matt Rhule’s head.

This off-season, when talking about the Colorado game, Rhule was happy to talk about how his defense sacked Shedeur Sanders “8-10 times” (7, actually), forgetting that Shedeur torched his defense for 393 yards and two touchdowns passing, together with another touchdown rushing.

This weekend, the sack count will be the focus for the fans in the stands and the commentators on the air. The Colorado offensive line gave up only one sack to North Dakota State, but Shedeur was on the move for much of the game.

There may not be a direct correlation between the number of Nebraska sacks and the outcome of the game … but it may be close.

On the other side of the ball, the number of sacks the CU defense can generate will be equally as telling. UTEP posted only one sack last weekend. If the Buff defense, though, can rattle Nebraska’s freshman quarterback early … it could be a fun night for the Buff Nation.

—

— Time of possession … One of my favorite worthless stats that I believe is still important. Last week on the podcast, I noted that if North Dakota State had over 35 minutes of possession time, the game could be closer than Buff fans would like. As it turned out, North Dakota State held the ball for 36:44, to only 23:16 for the Buff offense.

It’s a simple game plan, but it can work: Keep Shedeur and his bevy of talented wide receivers off the field … and they can’t score.

— Offensive balance … Stat you will hear in the opening from the NBC announcers: Shedeur Sanders, with his 445 yards passing against North Dakota State, leads the nation in passing yards. Stat you will likely also hear from the NBC talking heads during the game: Colorado, after finishing dead last in the nation in rushing last season, is 115th in the nation after Game One of the 2024 campaign, with the Buffs finishing with all of 59 yards rushing against NDSU.

Coach Prime’s “you take what the defense gives you” talk aside, having this great of an imbalance on offense is unsustainable.

The Buffs will need to prove to everyone, including themselves, that they can run the ball. The Nebraska defense is stout against the run, so that is a tall order, but if CU is to be successful in Lincoln, a balanced offense is a must.

—

Prediction … 

The Buffs are a 6.5-point underdog on the road against the hated Huskers.

The players on both sides of the field may not fully understand or embrace how this non-conference game is a true rivalry game, as most these athletes weren’t even in kindergarten the last time Colorado and Nebraska were together in the Big 12 conference.

But the fans know, and the coaches, even if they weren’t fully in tune with the old rivalry, have certainly been hearing about it from the alumni and donors.

The Husker Nation can’t stand the fact that Colorado has won the last three games in the series. If you spend even a small amount of time on social media, you know just how much this game means to the crowd at Memorial Stadium.

Will the fans’ frenzy be enough to carry their team past the finish line, and give Nebraska its first win in the series since 2010?

I was not overly disappointed by how close the North Dakota State game turned out. Had there not been a freak interception in the Bison end zone in the third quarter, or a 20-yard scramble touchdown for an NDSU score with less than two minutes to play, the Buff Nation might have been more forgiving than many have been this past week.

The Buffs will be playing in any number of toss up games this season. With an offense which can score, and a defense which is better than last year’s, the Buffs will be in almost every game on the schedule.

If the CU/Nebraska game was being played in Boulder, or even at a neutral site, I would take the Buffs. As it is, I think the 90,000 at Memorial Stadium Saturday night will make enough of a difference to will their team to a victory.

Prediction … Nebraska 31, Colorado 24

–

2024 Season (Straight up: 1-0; Against the Spread: 0-1)

• Prediction: Colorado 34, North Dakota State 20 … Actual: Colorado 31, North Dakota State 26

–

2023 Predictions … (Straight up: 8-4; Against the Spread: 7-5) …
2022 Predictions … (Straight up: 10-2; Against the Spread: 9-3) …
2021 Predictions … (Straight up: 9-3; Against the Spread: 7-5) …

–

—–

This post, about the Nebraska game, from the 2024 Season, is filed under Article.
You can follow any comments to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a comment.