“T.I.P.S.” for CU at Kansas

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CU v. Kansas: “T.I.P.S.” for No. 16 Buffs taking on the Jayhawks in Arrowhead

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… Related … If you prefer your predictions verbally (and from more than one voice), “CU at the Game Podcast: ‘T.I.P.S.’ for No. 16 CU at Kansas”, can be found at Apple Podcasts, Google Podcasts, or pretty much wherever you download your favorites. Or, if you would prefer, you can listen to this week’s CU/Kansas preview podcast here.

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It’s getting real.

When Colorado beat Texas Tech two weeks ago, while on the same day Iowa State and Kansas State were losing, a direct path for the Buffs to make the trip to Arlington suddenly opened up. Instead of needing a myriad of results to happen for CU to qualify, the Buffs suddenly controlled their own destiny. Three games + three wins = A trip to the Big 12 championship game, and the opportunity for a berth in the College Football Playoff.

The Buffs took care of business against Utah, a 4-5 team which limped into Folsom Field with a freshman backup quarterback and a five-game losing streak.

This weekend, despite carrying a record of 4-6, the Kansas Jayhawks present a much greater challenge for the Buffs. The game is on the road, albeit in Kansas City, and the Jayhawks are on a roll.

Two weeks ago, the Buffs fell behind Texas Tech 13-0 in the first quarter, but were able to overcome the slow start and post a victory.

Last weekend, Shedeur Sanders threw an interception on the first play of the game, but the Buffs were able to overcome another slow start and post a victory.

Two weeks ago, when Kansas last played in Arrowhead, the Jayhawks scored touchdowns on four straight first half possessions, dominating No. 17 Iowa State. Last weekend, Kansas took down previously unbeaten BYU on the road.

Now, Kansas is taking on No. 16 Colorado at Arrowhead.

Will the Buffs continue on a path of destiny, a path which leads to the Big 12 title game? Or does CU’s winning streak end in Kansas City?

Let’s find out …

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This Week’s “T.I.P.S” for No. 16 CU at Kansas – Saturday, 1:30 p.m., MT, Fox

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T – Talent

The Colorado defensive line has been one of the most pleasant surprises of CU’s 2024 campaign. A feared liability this past off-season, the unit has turned into a strength. CU leads the Big 12 (and is sixth in the nation) with 33 sacks, also leading the conference in fumbles recovered and red zone defense.

One way for offenses to blunt aggressive defenses, though, is with a mobile quarterback, a quarterback which can evade pass rushes, and can turn potential sacks into scrambles which moves the chains.

Introducing … Kansas quarterback Jaylon Daniels.

Daniels, like his team, has improved as the season as gone on, with the Jayhawks recovering from a 1-5 start to look more like the team which was ranked in the preseason.

Daniels is a decent passing quarterback, with almost 2,000 passing yards on the season, but has thrown 10 interceptions to go with his 13 touchdown passes. Even in the shootout against Iowa State, a 45-36 win in KU’s last home game, Daniels had a relatively modest 295 yards passing and two touchdowns.

Where Daniels is a real threat is what he can do with his legs. Daniels has only been sacked nine times all season, and has 338 rushing yards and six touchdown. In each of the last three games, all against ranked teams, Daniels has had double-digit rushing attempts.

Another one of Daniels’ strengths is … handing the ball off.

With 74 rushing yards against Colorado, running back Devin Neal will surpass 1,000-yards rushing for the third time in his career. Neal averages almost six yards per carry, and has 12 rushing touchdowns. (As a team, Colorado has 770 yards rushing, and 14 rushing touchdowns).

The receiving corps can’t match up with CU, but wide receivers Luke Grimm and Quentin Skinner have over 1,000 yards receiving between them, with ten touchdowns (including two which have gone for over 60 yards).

The Kansas defense is good, but far from dominating. The Jayhawks are 79th in total defense, giving up 380 yards/game (CU is 59th, at 357.7 ypg. allowed), and are 67th in scoring defense, giving up 24.6 points per game (CU is 51st, surrendering 22.7 ppg.). That being said, last weekend the Jayhawks held the No. 6 team in the country to one touchdown in a 17-13 win over BYU.

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I – Intangibles

All Four-win teams are not built the same … Last weekend, Utah came to Boulder with a 4-5 record. Bowl eligibility for the Utes was still within their grasp, needing two wins in three games against CU, Iowa State, and UCF.

But, the Utes came into Boulder a shell of their former selves. Utah opened the season 4-0, and was ranked No. 10 in the nation. Since then, the Utes lost not their only quarterback this decade, Cam Rising, but their top two receivers (including Buff beater tight end Brant Kuithe). Utah limped into Boulder on a five-game losing streak, and were still grumbling about how a victory over BYU had been stolen from them by the officials.

Kansas, meanwhile, has a worse record than did Utah, and will be playing the Buffs sporting a 4-6 overall record. But … as fate would have it, the Jayhawks are anything like the team which opened the season 1-5. Since a forgettable start to the season, Kansas has been on a roll. The Jayhawks mauled Houston (42-14), had No. 16 Kansas State dead-to-rites before falling, 29-27, before going on to beat No. 17 Iowa State (45-36) and No. 6 BYU (17-13). The Iowa State game is the most disconcerting, with the Jayhawks jumping out to a 31-13 halftime lead before cruising to a nine-point win.

Left for dead a month ago, Kansas can salvage their season with wins over CU and in the regular season finale at Baylor, getting the Jayhawks to 6-6 and bowl eligibility.

Plenty of incentives on the KU sidelines.

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Heisman Hype … Last weekend’s game against Utah couldn’t have gone much better for Travis Hunter and his campaign for the Heisman trophy. Okay, there was the 30-yard completion on the final play of the third quarter which was then called off as the officials declared the quarter had ended before the snap, but otherwise, the highlight reel was perfect.

With an early morning kickoff, the highlight package shown the rest of the day by all of the networks was the same: Colorado defeats Utah … Let’s go to the highlights: Travis interception? Check. Travis acrobatic catch? Check. Travis scoring on a five-yard run, which went about 40 yards, and past the majority of the Utah defense? Check.

The temptation for Shedeur and the CU coaches against Kansas could be to make sure Travis gets his receiving yards and touchdowns. Hunter is at 911 receiving yards and nine touchdowns. Wouldn’t 1,000 yards and ten touchdowns sound good to the Heisman voters?

Yes, but the Buffs can’t force feed Travis … if it comes at the expense of running a successful offensive game plan against a good Kansas defense.

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P – Preparation/Schedule

Whether the Weather Matters … It’s November, which means that weather can always be a factor.

Kickoff is set for 2:30 p.m., Central time, and the forecast is favorable. At last check, the predicted high will be around 55-degrees, with almost no chance of rain or wind affecting the game. Sunset will come around 5:00 p.m., local time, so it will get cooler in the second half, but the weather overall should not be a deciding factor.

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Not looking ahead … “One game at a time” is not a Coach Prime mantra, it’s been a speech from coaches since the invention of won/loss records.

CU’s regular season finale against Oklahoma State looks like an almost certain win (at least it does ten days out), so there is no reason for the Buffs to be looking past Kansas for its game against the Cowboys.

But … Is there a chance that the Buffs are already mentally booking flights to Arlington? Can they make it to the title game without stumbling?

We’ll see.

Kansas, meanwhile, also has a “win and you’re in” path, even if it is only to a bowl berth.

The Jayhawks were 1-5, and the season was lost. Since then, however, Kansas has won three-of-four, and “only” needs wins over Colorado at home, and then against Baylor on the road next weekend to earn a third-consecutive bowl appearance … for the first time in school history.

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S – Statistics 

— Yes, Virginia, the Buffs are that good … 

Colorado has beaten each of its last four opponents (all in Big 12 play) by at least 11 points. Last time CU beat four straight opponents by at least 11 points? The final four games of 1994 (including the 41-24 Fiesta Bowl in over Notre Dame). The last time CU beat four straight conference opponents by at least 11? The first four Big Eight games in 1989.

— Craziness …

Conventional wisdom is that, for an offense to be successful, you have to be able to convert on third down. The past two weeks, a 41-27 win over Texas Tech, and a 49-24 win over Utah, CU hasn’t been good on third downs, going 5-for-24. But … CU has still put up 90 points in those games. Put another way … CU has had 11 scoring drives in the last two games – seven of them without converting a third down.

— Which No. 6 ranking will hold up? …

As noted, Colorado is No. 6 in the nation in sacks, with 33. The Kansas offensive line, meanwhile, is No. 6 in the nation in fewest sacks allowed, giving up only nine in ten games.

Want to track a stat during the game which could play a role in the outcome? Track how well CU’s defensive line is doing in getting to Jaylon Daniels.

— Also … Just for fun … 

• CU’s record in road games under Coach Prime … 6-5
• CU’s record in road games the last 11 games before Coach Prime … 0-11.

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Prediction … 

Well, Toto, we’re not in Kansas, anymore.

In fact, the Buffs are flying right over Kansas, and playing the Jayhawks in Kansas City, Missouri, at Arrowhead Stadium, home of the Kansas City Chiefs. This weekend will be the last “home away from home” game for the Jayhawks, who will return to their renovated home field for the 2025 season.

A month ago, CU’s game against the Jayhawks looked like a layup. Kansas, No. 22 in the Associated Press preseason rankings, had fallen off of a cliff, opening 1-5, including non-conference losses to UNLV and Illinois.

But a look under the hood showed that Kansas was just not closing out games. Five of the six Jayhawk losses this season have been in one-score games. More recently, Kansas has picked up wins over ranked teams in consecutive games for the first time in school history (and, if Kansas State hadn’t connected on a 51-yard field goal with under two minutes to play three weeks ago, Kansas would be coming into its game against Colorado on a three-game winning streak against ranked teams).

My head tells me this is the game where the Buffs stumble. This is the game, like the first half of the Nebraska game, where the Buffs’ slow starts catch up with them, and they are not able to fully recover the rest of the afternoon.

But my heart tells me that this is a special CU season, with a locker room filled with quality players like the 2016 squad, a team which refused to be denied.

Get the antacids ready … This one could come down to the final minute, with one team making a special play.

I just hope its your Buffs.

Prediction … Colorado 28, Kansas 24

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2024 Season (Straight up: 9-1; Against the Spread: 9-1)

• Prediction: Colorado 34, North Dakota State 20 … Actual: Colorado 31, North Dakota State 26
• Prediction: Nebraska 31, Colorado 24 … Actual: Nebraska 28, Colorado 10
• Prediction: Colorado 34, Colorado State 24 … Actual: Colorado 28, Colorado State 9
• Prediction: Colorado 27, Baylor 24 … Actual: Colorado 38, Baylor 31, OT
• Prediction: Central Florida 35, Colorado 24 … Actual: Colorado 48, Central Florida 21
• Prediction: No. 18 Kansas State 31, Colorado 27 … Actual: No. 18 Kansas State 31, Colorado 28
• Prediction: Colorado 28, Arizona 24 … Actual: Colorado 34, Arizona 7
• Prediction: Colorado 28, Cincinnati 20 … Actual: Colorado 34, Cincinnati 23
• Prediction: No. 21 Colorado 38, Texas Tech 30 … Actual: No. 21 Colorado 41, Texas Tech 27
• Prediction: No. 18 Colorado 27, Utah 17 … Actual: No. 18 Colorado 49, Utah 25

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2023 Predictions … (Straight up: 8-4; Against the Spread: 7-5) …
2022 Predictions … (Straight up: 10-2; Against the Spread: 9-3) …
2021 Predictions … (Straight up: 9-3; Against the Spread: 7-5) …

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