“T.I.P.S.” for CU at CSU

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CU at Colorado State: Buffs first trip to Ft. Collins since 1996

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… Related … If you prefer your predictions verbally (and from more than one voice), “CU at the Game Podcast: ‘T.I.P.S.’ for CU at Colorado State”, can be found at Apple Podcasts, Google Podcasts, or pretty much wherever you download your favorites. Or, if you would prefer, you can listen to this week’s CU/CSU preview podcast here .

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Colorado State has 29 players on its roster who played high school football in the state of Colorado.

The CU roster has 14 such in-state players … and most of those are walk-ons.

But it’s not just that there are Ram players who wound up in Ft. Collins after not being recruited to play in Boulder. And it’s not just that CSU will have a roster full of players who have a chip on their shoulder about playing for Group of Five CSU instead of Power Four CU.

Those factors are always in play when the Buffs play Little Brother CSU.

But, as Buff fans well know, Coach Prime has rubbed half the nation the wrong way. The attention, the commercials, and the attitude have made CU easy targets for the haters, and has fueled the flames of dislike and jealousy from Little Brother up north.

Remember last fall when CSU Coach Jay Norvell talked about how his mama taught him to take off his hat and sunglasses? Remember the exchange between Coach Prime and Coach Norvell after the game: “And I was never talking about your family,” Norvell told Sanders as he leaned into him. “Oh, you was talkin’ about my mama, dawg,” Sanders said. “No, I was not,” Norvell said. “Yes, you were,” Sanders said as Norvell turned away.

Remember how many cheap shots the CSU players were taking against the Buffs last September? Remember Travis Hunter being taken out of the game on a cheap shot in front of the Colorado bench?

There may not be many in-state players on the Colorado roster, but there are plenty who played in last season’s double-overtime game against the Rams. If they don’t remember the hatred emanating from the visitors’ bench, hopefully the coaches will be reminding them this week.

Colorado, returning to Ft. Collins for the first time since 1996, is an 8.5-point road favorite over Colorado State.

The Rams want this game more than any other game on their schedule. The Buffs need this game, especially after their effort against Nebraska last weekend.

Which team will be happy come late Saturday night?

Let’s find out …

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This Week’s “T.I.P.S” for CU at Colorado State – Saturday, 5:30 p.m., MT, CBS

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T – Talent

I have two words for you:

Tory Horton.

Last season, the CSU wideout ran all over Folsom Field. The Rams ran the shallow cross all night, and the Buffs never figured out how to stop it. Horton had 16 receptions – 16! – for 133 yards and a touchdown against Colorado in Folsom.

A first-team All-Mountain West Conference wide receiver last fall, and a preseason first-team All-Mountain West Conference receiver this season, Horton could have turned pro last off-season, but instead chose to return to Ft. Collins for his senior campaign.

Horton – along with the entire CSU offense – was shut down in the 52-0 season-opening drubbing by No. 4 Texas, with Horton collecting five passes for 31 yards. Against Northern Colorado, Horton got off to a fast start. After the CSU defense forced a three-and-out from the UNC offense in the game’s opening series, Horton scored on a 78-yard punt return.

But … Horton caught a 31-yard pass early in the third quarter but appeared to go down with a potential muscle injury in his leg along the CSU sideline at the end of the play. Horton went to the injury tent on the sideline for a brief period, then walked to the locker room with a towel over his head.

Jay Norvell said on Monday that he’s “hopeful” will be available this weekend. “Tory is sore but I think he’s going to be available to play, so we’ll see how he progresses over the week”.

We’ll see if Horton is ready to go against the Buffs, but the CU defensive staff and players need to prepare as if Horton will not only play, but be ready to show why he is on the watch lists for the Biletnikoff and Walter Camp Awards.

If Tory Horton can’t go, the Colorado State offense becomes much more manageable. Quarterback Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi is all of 27-for-44 on the young season, going for 234 yards with one touchdown and one interception. Fowler-Nicolosi did have five 300-yard passing games last fall, including 367 yards and three touchdowns against Colorado, so the potential is there. If Horton is not active, next on the list may be sophomore Caleb Goodie, who had a 40-yard touchdown reception against Northern Colorado. Colorado State was ninth in the nation in passing offense last season, but the three top receivers from last season not named Tory Horton are gone. 

With the passing game (perhaps) hampered, the Rams may try and grind out a victory on the ground. Redshirt freshman running back Justin Marshall somehow managed a 106-yard effort in the 52-0 loss to Texas, adding another 67 yards on only ten carries against Northern Colorado.

On defense, the Rams have a pair of first-team All-Mountain West performers in linebacker Chase Wilson and safety Jack Howell (in case you were wondering, the safety who knocked Travis Hunter out of last season’s game, Henry Blackburn, also returns). Overall, though, only five defenders return from a defense which ranked 90th or worse in most major defensive categories last season.

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I – Intangibles

We’ve already discussed (“Everyone’s Super Bowl“) how much this game meant to North Dakota State, to Nebraska, and now how much it means to Colorado State and its fan base.

Colorado has won six straight games in the series, with the last Ram victory coming in Denver in 2014. The last time the teams played in Ft. Collins was in 1996, a 48-34 CU victory.

The last time CSU beat the Buffs in a game played in Ft. Collins? Umm, that would be 1955 (CU 4-0 since).

The two teams won’t play again until 2029, when the two teams will have another home-and-home (in addition to 2029-30, the Buffs and Rams presently have home-and-home games scheduled for 2033-34 and 2037-38).

Which is a long way of saying … this game means a great deal to Colorado State and its fan base.

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Perhaps the real question should be: Will the game in Ft. Collins be “personal” for the Buffs?

With the beat down in Lincoln fresh in everyone’s memories, how will the team react? Gone are any realistic hopes of a College Football Playoff berth, a Big 12 title, and any visits from ESPN GameDay. The Buffs were exposed as a mediocre team with the same problems which led to a 4-8 season last fall.

Shedeur Sanders threw his offensive line under the bus in the Nebraska post-game press conference. Asked about his struggles against the Nebraska defense, Shedeur smiled and replied: “How many times was Raiola touched?”.

Now, if I’m a CU offensive lineman, already hurting from a dismal effort, do I appreciate my quarterback, my team captain, not accepting any responsibility for his sacks (not to mention his pick-six)?

The Colorado defense was shredded in the first half against Nebraska, but then shut out the Cornhuskers in the final 30 minutes. That stat is helpful, but one can also openly wonder if the Cornhuskers needed to score in the second half … that they would have scored.

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P – Preparation/Schedule

The Buffs are playing back-to-back road games for the only time this season. Now, it can be argued that a 40-mile road trip shouldn’t really count as a road trip, but the Buffs will certainly be facing a hostile road crowd for the second week in succession. After the CSU game, the Buffs begin Big 12 competition at home against Baylor.

Meanwhile, the Rams are in the midst of a three-game homestand. After the road trip to Austin to face Texas, the Rams had a layup game against a Northern Colorado team picked to finish 11th in the 12-team Big Sky Conference, and a game against a UTEP Miner team which was drubbed by Nebraska in Week One (and lost to, um, Southern Utah in Game Two).

So, while the Buffs remain on a rivalry revenge tour, then have a Big 12 opener next weekend, the Rams have a fourth non-conference game next weekend.

Yet another reason for CSU to put everything into their CU game basket.

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That being said, it is worth mentioning here that it is a verrry good thing that this game is the third game of the season. So many of the Rocky Mountain Showdown games were much closer than they needed to be was CU giving the Rams the full month of August to prepare for the game.

Think it doesn’t make a difference?

Remember the North Dakota State game? The Bison came into Boulder with an offense which was fourth in the nation in rushing in 2023, and they opened the game in Folsom … throwing the ball. It took the better part of a half for the CU defensive staff to figure out the Bison’s game plan, thereafter forcing three straight punts and allowing the Buffs to get back into the game.

Good on CU AD Rick George for making sure that the games played in this home-and-home series – and future home-and-home games – are all played the third game of the season, not the first.

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S – Statistics 

— Sacks … This is going to be a thing until it’s not a thing. After giving up only one sack in the North Dakota State game, the Buffs suffered six sacks against Nebraska. When the game was still a game, the Buffs gave up sacks in four of their first five drives, with the only “sackless” drive being the one-play pick-six “drive” which put the Buffs in a 14-0 hole early.

Now, the Colorado State defense has produced only two sacks in two games, but last year the Ram defense got to Shedeur Sanders four times.

The sack stat shouldn’t be game determinant, but until the Buffs can figure out a way to consistently protect Sanders, it will be one of the most quoted stats every week.

— Second half Buffs … Defensively, the Buffs have been lights out in the second half, allowing a total of six points and 328 yards after intermission. However, they’ve allowed 48 points and 455 yards in the first halves of the two games and CU has trailed at halftime both times.

A fast start, or even something better than a slow start, would be much appreciated by the Buff Nation.

— Time of possession … One of my favorite worthless stats that I believe is still important. North Dakota State held the ball for 36:44; Nebraska for 35:21.

It’s basic math, if the other team gets to hold the ball for ten minutes more of game clock than you do … bad things can happen.

Nothing wrong with two-play, 75-yard drives, but a few ten-play, 75-yard drives would help keep the CU defense off the field and rested.

— Offensive balance … We thought that the North Dakota State game was bad, but against Nebraska, it got even worse. The Buffs managed all of 59 yards rushing against the Bison, but against the Cornhuskers, the total fell to … 16 yards.

The irony of the Buffs’ rushing total against Nebraska is that, when the Buffs took to the field with about two minutes remaining, and backup quarterback Ryan Staub behind center, the CU rushing total stood at zero. A few runs against the backup defensive line of Nebraska was the only way the Buffs got any rushing stats at all.

Dallan Hayden is out for the CSU game, so resurrecting the rushing attack will be left to … ??

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Prediction … 

Time to give up on the Buffs?

You’ve heard it all since late Saturday … The offensive line is a mess … The CU rushing attack is non-existent … The play-calling is predictable and abysmal … The defense can’t stop an offense with a pulse …

If you have spent any time on the message boards the past few days, you know that many in the Buff Nation have given up on Colorado and Coach Prime.

Some of the headings on BuffStampede.com message board …

• Buffs take a big step backward in ugly loss;
• Coaching Hot Board;
• Shurmur needs help or needs to go?; and, my personal favorite …
• Shedeur and Travis Have to Leave for the Program to Move Forward

Seriously?

Now, CU hasn’t had a first-round NFL Draft pick since 2011 (Nate Solder and Jimmy Smith), but the Buffs will be better off after CU’s next two first-round NFL Draft picks move on?

There is plenty of season left to be played. There aren’t too many games on the schedule in which CU won’t have a fighting chance at a win.

Colorado State has, on paper, the least talented roster of all of the teams remaining on the 2024 schedule.

The CSU fans will be loud, but the Buffs faced a crowd last weekend which was twice as large, and at least twice as as loud.

It won’t be easy. Nothing for the Buffs is ever easy. But CU’s talent should be sufficient to bring home victory No. 2.

Prediction … Colorado 34, Colorado State 24

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2024 Season (Straight up: 2-0; Against the Spread: 1-1)

• Prediction: Colorado 34, North Dakota State 20 … Actual: Colorado 31, North Dakota State 26
• Prediction: Nebraska 31, Colorado 24 … Actual: Nebraska 28, Colorado 10

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2023 Predictions … (Straight up: 8-4; Against the Spread: 7-5) …
2022 Predictions … (Straight up: 10-2; Against the Spread: 9-3) …
2021 Predictions … (Straight up: 9-3; Against the Spread: 7-5) …

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This post, about the Colorado State game, from the 2024 Season, is filed under Article.
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