“T.I.P.S.” for CU at Arizona

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CU at Arizona: “T.I.P.S.” for CU’s trip to the (temperate!) desert

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… Related … If you prefer your predictions verbally (and from more than one voice), “CU at the Game Podcast: ‘T.I.P.S.’ for CU at Arizona”, can be found at Apple Podcasts, Google Podcasts, or pretty much wherever you download your favorites. Or, if you would prefer, you can listen to this week’s CU/Arizona preview podcast here.

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Much was expected from Arizona to open the 2024 season, despite losing its head coach, Jedd Fisch, to Washington. The Wildcats went 10-3 in 2023, including a 38-24 win over No. 12 Oklahoma in the Alamo Bowl. Arizona finished the 2023 season ranked 11th in the nation, and opened the 2024 campaign ranked No. 24 in the country. In the Big 12 preseason media poll, Arizona was picked to finish fifth, with three writers picking the Wildcats to win the conference.

After opening with easy wins over New Mexico and Northern Arizona, however, the wheels have come off the Arizona bandwagon. The Wildcats have lost three of four, including a 41-19 loss to No. 14 BYU last Saturday. The only victory during that stretch was a seemingly impressive road win at Utah, but the Utes were without star quarterback Cam Rising (a Utah team didn’t look all that good with Rising back, falling to Arizona State last Friday).

Arizona enters Saturday’s game 3-3 overall, 1-2 in Big 12 play.

Last season, Arizona pulled out a 34-31 win over Colorado in Boulder. The Wildcats never led in the game … until the fourth quarter clock read 0.00, with Arizona kicker Tyler Loop hitting the game-winner from 24 yards out as time expired.

Which Arizona team will show up? The one with a dominating defense, which upset Utah on the road, or the one prone to turnovers, which cost the Wildcats dearly in losses to Texas Tech and BYU?

Let’s find out …

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This Week’s “T.I.P.S” for CU at Arizona – Saturday, 2:00 p.m., MT, Fox

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T – Talent

While Colorado fans believe they have the best quarterback/wide receiver combo in the nation in Shedeur Sanders and Travis Hunter, Arizona fans believe their pairing of quarterback Noah Fifita and wide receiver Tetairoa McMillan are the best in the country.

Much of the optimism concerning the Wildcats this fall centered on this pair returning for new head coach, Brent Brennan, instead of leaving through the Transfer Portal. And, for the most part, the Fifita/T-Mac duo has held up its end. Fifita has 1,636 passing yards (20th nationally), with eight touchdowns. McMillan has four of those touchdown receptions, and almost half of Arizona’s receiving yards (742). (Former Buff Montana Lemonious-Craig, in case you were wondering, has 17 catches for 172 yards and one touchdown).

The problem for the Arizona offense is that, other than their two stars, production hasn’t lived up to the hype. Fifita does have eight touchdown passes and over 1,600 yards passing, but also has nine interceptions (the only quarterback in the top 20 nationally in passing yards with more interceptions than touchdowns).

The rushing attack has been ably manned by Quali Conley. The senior running back is on his way to challenging for a second 1,000-yard season this fall, with 458 yards on 82 carries, scoring six touchdowns.

Overall, the Arizona offense has been average, coming in at No. 54 nationally (413.5 ypg.), despite having a pad-your-stats opening win over New Mexico (61 points, 627 yards of total offense).

The Arizona defense, despite shutting down Utah in 23-10 win via four fourth down stops, is also fairly average. The Wildcats are giving up 356.0 ypg (66th nationally) and 26.5 ppg (85th nationally). The unit does boast two preseason All-Big 12 first-team picks, in linebacker Jacob Manu and defensive back Tacario Davis. Manu leads the team this season, with 43 tackles, while Davis leads the team with five passes defended.

If the game comes down to a field goal attempt – as it did in Boulder last November – the Wildcats have an advantage, with kicker Tyler Loop, the hero of the ’23 game, returning as a first-team All-Big 12 selection.

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I – Intangibles

Who has more momentum? … Both teams come into the game with confidence issues. As noted, the Wildcats have lost three of four, and are 1-2 in Big 12 play. Arizona has already lost as many games in 2024 as the Wildcats did in all of 2023. While a 3-3 record is not one to be dismissed, there may be a chink or two in the armor for a team which finished the 2023 season on a seven-game winning streak.

As for Colorado, the loss to Kansas State could be considered a mixed bag. yes the Buffs did comeback from a two-touchdown deficit to take the lead against a ranked team, and did so without several of its best players on offense.

At the same time, the way in which Kansas State ran through the CU defense, and the way the Wildcats harassed Shedeur Sanders all night, has to give the CU coaches, players, and fans some nightmares about how the 2023 season played out.

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Revenge Game … The home loss to No. 21 Arizona last fall has to weigh, at least a little bit, on the minds of Buffs as they head for the desert in Tucson. While the Buffs never led by more than a touchdown during the game, before ultimately losing, 34-31, Colorado never trailed, and it was a bitter pill to walk off the field after a game-winning field goal by the opposition.

If I were the CU coaches, I would look to see if there is any film of the post-game celebration by the Wildcats after the game. While not a huge factor in the game (five catches for 67 yards), former Buff Montana Lemonious-Craig, after the Tyler Loop field goal to send the visitors home a winner, danced on the CU logo at midfield.

Want some extra motivation, Buffs? Check out your former teammate desecrating your logo …

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P – Preparation/Schedule

Desert Advantage … If you were like me, the first time you heard that the Colorado at Arizona game would kickoff at 1:00 p.m., local time (2:00 p.m., MT), your first thought was … the Buffs are going to have to play in a sauna.

And why not? Tucson has already had over 100 days of 100+ degree heat in 2024 (a new record), and the thermometer was in the 100s last week.

But … the forecast for Saturday’s game in Tucson? Currently holding at … 73-degrees.

One huge potential advantage for the home team: mitigated.

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Looking ahead? … While Arizona may be licking its wounds after losing three of its last four games, this was arguably the most difficult stretch of games the Wildcats will face this season. Three of Arizona’s last four games were against teams ranked in the Top 15 nationally. The rest of the season? Not so much.

Arizona plays two of its next three games at home, with the only road game being against Central Florida, which has fallen to 3-3 after a 3-0 start. The final three games also feature two home games, with the only road game being at TCU. Otherwise, the Wildcats face CU, West Virginia, Houston, and Arizona State … all at home.

While Arizona has stumbled to a 3-3, 1-2 start, it shouldn’t take much coaxing from the coaching staff to get the players to believe that there are many wins left to be had on the Wildcats’ remaining schedule.

As noted, Arizona went from 3-3 to 10-3 last season, and I’m sure that the Wildcat coaches have been reminding their players of that very fact this week.

The same pitch – all of the team’s goals are still attainable – can also be made, of course, to the Buff players. CU still has three road games: at Arizona; at Texas Tech; and at Kansas (in a game to be played in Kansas City). CU’s home slate includes a better-than-expected Cincinnati, followed by not-as-good-as-expected Utah and Oklahoma State.

Both teams have wins and a successful season in their sights … Which team will take advantage?

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S – Statistics 

— Sacks are back … The Colorado offense suffered six sacks against Kansas State, with the Buffs ending up with a minus-29 yards rushing overall, the worst such total in CU history (previous worst total: minus-27 yards rushing in a 16-6 loss to Florida State in 2007. Irony alert: This was CU’s first-ever “Blackout” game, a game which started on ESPN at 8:15 p.m., MT, which was, at the time, the latest ever start for a CU home game).

While the lack of a running game, and Shedeur’s inability/unwillingness to get rid of the ball when pressured are contributing factors, the offensive line bears much of the responsibility for protecting its quarterback.

Correcting the sack issue was an emphasis for the coaching staff this off-season. In 2023, the Buffs suffered a school-record 56 sacks, the sack totals are not getting much better in 2024.

Through six games, the Buffs have suffered 24 sacks, on a pace for 48 for the season … not a great improvement over 2023. For its part, the Arizona defense has posted 11 sacks in six games, 79th nationally.

Coach Prime promised extra work in practice next week for the offense if there are more than three sacks against Arizona, so stay tuned.

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— Arizona offense struggling … The Wildcats are 87th in the nation in scoring, putting up 25.7 points per game. But … it’s been even worse than that for Arizona fans. Take away the 61 points the Wildcats scored against New Mexico, and Arizona is averaging only 18.6 points per game, and haven’t scored over 23 in any one game in their past five.

If the CU defense can hold the Wildcats under 24 points Saturday … you have to like the Buffs’ chances.

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— Scoring first … After being scored on first by the opponents in the first four games of the season, the Buffs started a new trend against UCF (thanks, in no small part, to a Preston Hodge interception in the end zone on the Knights’ first possession), and made it two-for-two last weekend, with a 25-yard touchdown pass from Shedeur Sanders to LaJohntay Wester giving the Buffs an early 7-0 lead against the Wildcats.

With the confidence level for both teams a bit on the fragile side after tough losses this past weekend, the team which scores first on Saturday could gain a significant leg up on the opposition.

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Prediction … 

When we did our preseason predictions podcast, we gave our thoughts on how each game might turn out for CU. At the time, the Buffs had five ranked teams on the schedule, with all five games coming in the final seven contests.

To date, with my weekly “T.I.P.S.” predictions, I have stuck with the script, staying consistent with my August predictions. And, for the first half the season, it has worked out close to form, with my only miss being the Central Florida game, which looked to me – at least in August – as a CU loss.

As we turn the page to the second half of the 2024 campaign, though, it may be time to ditch the script. The Big 12 is a jumble, with preseason ranked teams Utah, Oklahoma State, Kansas and Arizona all now off the national radar, with preseason after-thoughts like BYU and Arizona State atop the standings.

Arizona opened the season the No. 24 team in the country, but hasn’t played like a Top 25 team. The Wildcat offense has struggled, and Arizona has slipped to a 3-3 record.

It’s Homecoming for Arizona, the game is a sellout, and former Buff killer Kahlil Tate is serving as one of the Wildcats’ honorary captains.

The Wildcats have lost two in a row, and have their backs to the wall. They will come out and throw everything at the Buffs – T-Mac on offense; blitzes on defense.

Can the Buffs withstand the challenge?

I think they can.

In August, I predicted that Colorado wouldn’t be able to go on the road and beat a ranked Arizona team.

Since August, CU has played better than expected; Arizona has played worse than expected.

I was almost dead-on with my prediction for the Kansas State game, with my 31-27 pick for a win for the visitors being only a point off … and I hated being right.

I want my pick to be right, and I want my Buffs to win, so …

Prediction … Colorado 28, Arizona 24

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2024 Season (Straight up: 5-1; Against the Spread: 5-1)

• Prediction: Colorado 34, North Dakota State 20 … Actual: Colorado 31, North Dakota State 26
• Prediction: Nebraska 31, Colorado 24 … Actual: Nebraska 28, Colorado 10
• Prediction: Colorado 34, Colorado State 24 … Actual: Colorado 28, Colorado State 9
• Prediction: Colorado 27, Baylor 24 … Actual: Colorado 38, Baylor 31, OT
• Prediction: Central Florida 35, Colorado 24 … Actual: Colorado 48, Central Florida 21
• Prediction: No. 18 Kansas State 31, Colorado 27 … Actual: No. 18 Kansas State 31, Colorado 28

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2023 Predictions … (Straight up: 8-4; Against the Spread: 7-5) …
2022 Predictions … (Straight up: 10-2; Against the Spread: 9-3) …
2021 Predictions … (Straight up: 9-3; Against the Spread: 7-5) …

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This post, about the Arizona game, from the 2024 Season, is filed under Article.
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