Schedule Countdown – CU’s Six Toughest Games

—

CU’s 2024 Schedule Countdown – The Buffs’ Six Most Difficult Games

—

Last season, in the first year of Colorado football under Coach Prime, there were many unknowns. Would the complete overhaul of the roster work? Could Coach Prime take a 1-11 team – one of the worst programs in the nation in 2022 – and not only find a way to respectability, but to victories on the field?

The schedule did the Buffs no favors, with half of CU’s games being played against teams ranked in the nation’s Top 25. The Pac-12 took advantage of the Coach Prime notoriety, scheduling CU’s first two conference games against Pac-12 heavyweights Oregon and USC.

The Pac-12 wanted to strike while the Coach Prime iron was hot … which worked to the detriment of the program overall.

While there was certainly hope for the Buffs entering the 2023 season, there were a few games, like the road game against Oregon and the home game against USC, which were games which CU fans could pretty much pencil in as losses. The Ducks were national title contenders, and, well, the Buffs had never beaten the Trojans in their history.

This fall, in Year Two under Coach Prime, there may be only a few games which CU fans should be able to pencil in as sure wins, but, for the first time in seemingly forever, there are also only a few games which should be penciled in as sure losses. It’s going to be a season of “toss up” games, which makes the following all the more difficult.

Below are six of CU’s 12 fall opponents, including information on some preseason national rankings. These are the six games which I am labeling as the “most difficult” on CU’s schedule, based upon factors including the opposing team’s talent overall levels, returning starters, together with when and where the teams play.

(My list of “CU’s Six ‘Easiest’ Games” was posted last week. To refresh your memory, here is how I ranked CU’s six best chances at victories:

• No. 12 … North Dakota State … No. 2 in FCS preseason polls
• No. 11 … at Colorado State … Lindy’s No. 87 … Athlon’s No. 78 … ESPN Football Power Index (FPI) No. 105
• No 10 … Baylor … Lindy’s No. 50 … Athlon’s No. 66 … ESPN FPI No. 55
• No. 9 … Cincinnati … Lindy’s No. 79 … Athlon’s No. 73 … ESPN FPI No. 65
• No. 8 … at Texas Tech … Lindy’s No. 41 … Athlon’s No. 44 … ESPN FPI No. 29
• No. 7 … at Central Florida … Lindy’s No. 43 … Athlon’s No. 48 … ESPN FPI No. 32

(Note … For point of reference and comparison, at Lindy’s, Colorado is rated as the No. 49 team in the nation; No. 50 at Athlon’s, and, in the ESPN Football Power Index, CU comes in at No. 36).

–

And now … the six most difficult games on CU’s schedule … 

— No. 6 … Saturday, September 7th – at Nebraska … Lindy’s No. 38 … Athlon’s No. 33 … ESPN FPI No. 41 …

The Cornhuskers went 5-7 in 2023, Nebraska’s first season under head coach Matt Rhule. After opening with a 5-3 record, the Cornhuskers suffered the same affliction which has hit the Buffs any number of times in recent years – the failure to get a sixth win and a bowl berth.

Nebraska finished 120th in scoring offense last season; 115th in total offense. To the rescue comes five-star freshman quarterback Dylan Raiola, the latest savior for a program which hasn’t played in a bowl game since 2016. Raiola may be the real deal, but his game against CU will be his first against a Power Four opponent, as Nebraska opens its season against UTEP.

The real problem for the Buffs – other than facing a hostile crowd which will be in a frenzy trying to avoid the first four-game losing streak to Colorado in program history – will be a tough defense which was 11th in the nation last year and has seven starters back.

—

— No. 5 … Saturday, October 12th – Kansas State … Lindy’s No. 21 … Athlon’s No. 17 … ESPN FPI No. 22 …

The Buffs have a bye week before facing one of the favorites to win the Big 12 title … but the Wildcats will also have a bye week before coming to Boulder, negating the advantage.

The Wildcats went 9-4 in 2023, including a 28-19 win in Pop-Tarts Bowl over North Carolina State. Head coach Chris Klieman made the most of his personnel, as the Wildcats were 10th in scoring offense and 26th in scoring defense … far higher than other team rankings would have suggested (e.g., KSU was 53rd in passing offense; 57th in total defense).

How good is quarterback Avery Johnson? Apparently good enough to beat out Will Howard for the job, the same Will Howard who transferred to Columbus to be the starting quarterback for national title contender Ohio State.

Buff fans, and the nation, will have a pretty good idea of how good Kansas State is before mid-October, as the Wildcats will have already played Arizona and Oklahoma State (both at home) before facing CU.

—

— No. 4 … Saturday, November 23rd – at Kansas … Lindy’s No. 20 … Athlon’s No. 21 … ESPN FPI No. 17 …

Who’s up for a trip to Arrrowhead Stadium in Kansas City this fall? The Jayhawks will play all of their games outside of Lawrence this season, playing their first two home games (against some team named Lindenwood and a bowl rematch against UNLV) in a soccer stadium before playing their Big 12 home games at Arrowhead.

Kansas went 9-4 in 2023, including a 49-36 win in the Guaranteed Rate Bowl over UNLV. The CU game will be KU’s fourth game at Arrowhead, coming after games against TCU, Houston, and Iowa State (with the Cyclones, along with the Buffs, having the best chance at making the games neutral site contests). The Big 12 was kind to Kansas, with manageable road games against Illinois, Arizona State, BYU and Baylor on the schedule.

Last season, Kansas was third in the nation in scoring offense; fourth in total offense, and that was with star quarterback Jalon Daniels injured for much of the season. The defense was not as potent (in the 60’s nationally in both scoring and total defense), so the Buffs may need to hope for decent weather in late November, and turn the game into a score-fest with the Jayhawks.

—

— No. 3 … Saturday, October 19th – at Arizona … Lindy’s No. 23 … Athlon’s No. 23 … ESPN FPI No. 24 …

Arizona exceeded expectations last fall, going 10-3, including a 38-24 win over Oklahoma in the Alamo Bowl. The Wildcats enter the 2024 season on a seven-game winning streak, with quarterback Noah Fifita and star wide receiver T-Mac (Tetairoa McMillan) returning (along with former Buff Montana Lemonious-Craig, who did a little dance on the CU logo last season after Arizona’s last second field goal to beat the Buffs).

Tempering expectations this season is the loss of head coach Jedd Fisch, who left Arizona to take the head job at Washington … taking some talented Wildcats with him to Seattle. New head coach Brett Brennan was a graduate assistant at Arizona, coming to Tucson from San Jose State, where he was the head coach for the past seven seasons (2017-23).

What gives Buff fans reason for hope in this game? For starters, the game later in October, giving some optimism that the game will be played at a reasonable temperature. Second, Arizona will have to play Kansas State and Utah – both on the road – before CU arrives in town, so any weaknesses in Brennan’s Wildcats will have already been exposed by two of the top teams in the Big 12.

And then, there is the fact that the Buffs led the entire game in Boulder last year, with Arizona escaping with a 34-31 victory. The Buffs know they can play with this team … they just have to prove they can beat them.

—

— No. 2 … Friday, November 29th – Oklahoma State … Lindy’s No. 12 … Athlon’s No. 19 … ESPN FPI No. 26 …

One of the 2024 Big 12 favorites, Oklahoma State lost to Texas in the Big 12 championship game last fall before defeating Texas A&M, 31-23, in the Texas Bowl to finish 10-4.

Despite the success in the standings, the Cowboys were a study in inconsistencies. Running back Ollie Gordon is a legitimate Heisman trophy candidate, rushing for 1,732 yards and 21 touchdowns last season, but Gordon was a one-man show, with OSU finishing 67th nationally in rushing. OSU was able to defeat both Kansas schools in 2023, as well as Oklahoma (in the last Bedlam game for the foreseeable future) and Texas A&M, but lost 33-7 to South Alabama and 45-3 to Central Florida.

Quarterback Alan Bowman is back for his – wait for it – seventh season. and there are 17 starters returning overall. The defense returns in tact, but it’s a unit which was 122nd in total defense and 123rd in passing defense.

The regular season finale in Boulder will be a 10:00 a.m., MT, kickoff. How the Black Friday game turns out could very well be dependent upon where the programs are heading into Thanksgiving weekend. If Oklahoma State is 9-2 and playing for a title game berth, and CU is 4-7, it could be an ugly game for the home team. Conversely, if both teams are 7-4, and the Buffs come in with momentum, and the Cowboys are disappointed in how their season has unfolded … it could be a CU victory.

—

— No. 1 … Saturday, November 16th – Utah … Lindy’s No. 16 … Athlon’s No. 14 … ESPN FPI No. 27 …

Hard as it is to believe, Colorado will face two quarterbacks this November who will be playing their seventh season. Utah quarterback Cam Rising missed all of the 2023 campaign, but his return (and, oh by the way, he could technically also play in 2025, his eighth collegiate season) is one of the main reasons that Utah is one of the favorites to win the Big 12 in the Utes’ first season in the conference.

Even without Rising (and star tight end Brant Kuithe), the Utes went 8-5 in 2023, falling 14-7 to Northwestern in the Las Vegas Bowl.

Only four starters return on offense (not including Rising and Kuithe), and three of four defensive backs need to be replaced, but optimism reigns supreme in Salt Lake City. The Big 12 schedule makers took it easy on Utah, with the Utes’ Big 12 road games including games against lower division teams Arizona State, Houston … and Colorado.

To CU’s advantage, the Buffs get Utah the weekend after the Utes play in the Holy War against BYU, and the fact that the game is not the regular season finale has to be considered an upgrade for the Buffs, considering how the “rivalry” unfolded when the teams were in the Pac-12.

Why is the Utah game the most difficult on CU’s schedule? Quite simply, until the Buffs can solve the mystery of beating Cam Rising and the Utes, Colorado will be the underdog in this game.

—

So, where do we end up?

Looking through the list, there is an argument to be made that you can divide CU’s schedule into three categories:

— Should win/Must win games … the first four games on my list:

• No. 12 … North Dakota State … No. 2 in FCS preseason polls
• No. 11 … at Colorado State … Lindy’s No. 87 … Athlon’s No. 78 … ESPN Football Power Index (FPI) No. 105
• No 10 … Baylor … Lindy’s No. 50 … Athlon’s No. 66 … ESPN FPI No. 55
• No. 9 … Cincinnati … Lindy’s No. 79 … Athlon’s No. 73 … ESPN FPI No. 65

— Four toss-up games:

• No. 8 … at Texas Tech … Lindy’s No. 41 … Athlon’s No. 44 … ESPN FPI No. 29
• No. 7 … at Central Florida … Lindy’s No. 43 … Athlon’s No. 48 … ESPN FPI No. 32
• No. 6 … at Nebraska … Lindy’s No. 38 … Athlon’s No. 33 … ESPN FPI No. 41
• No. 5 … Kansas State … Lindy’s No. 21 … Athlon’s No. 17 … ESPN FPI No. 22

— And four games in the “not favored, but have a chance” category:

• No. 4 … at Kansas … Lindy’s No. 20 … Athlon’s No. 21 … ESPN FPI No. 17
• No. 3 … at Arizona … Lindy’s No. 23 … Athlon’s No. 23 … ESPN FPI No. 24
• No. 2 … Oklahoma State … Lindy’s No. 12 … Athlon’s No. 19 … ESPN FPI No. 26
• No. 1 … Utah … Lindy’s No. 16 … Athlon’s No. 14 … ESPN FPI No. 27

If you are an optimist, you can look at this list and see CU’s opportunities for a fast start to the season, with chances to pad the win column with late season wins over better opponents.

If you are a pessimist, you can look at this list and see that CU had better get off to a fast start, because if there are any slip ups in September and October, CU’s November schedule – like last season’s – will be difficult to rebuild any lost momentum.

I, for one, am excited about this schedule. While I will be nervous at kickoff of every game, there isn’t a game on the schedule in which I can’t foresee a scenario which could lead to a Colorado victory.

Let the games begin! …

–

—–

This post, about the Spring/Summer game, from the 2024 Season, is filed under Article.
You can follow any comments to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a comment.