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Big 12 Preview – Part One
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The college football season is upon us, with Fall Camps in full swing. CU’s opener against North Dakota State is now less than four weeks away.
Before we get completely CU-centric, let’s take a look at how the Big 12 race may shake out. If you want to take a listen to our in-depth team-by-team discussion of the conference race, the CU at the Game Podcast, “Big 12 Preview: Our Team-by-Team Projections for the 2024 Season” can be found here.
In reviewing CU’s 15 rivals in the new-and-improved Big 12, I have put teams into four categories:
– Tier One: A team which is a Big 12 title contender, and a likely Top 25 team nationally;
– Tier Two: A solid team, and a likely bowl participant, but a team with a flaw or two which will prevent them from threatening to win the league;
– Tier Three: A team with bowl aspirations, where the Strive for Six is the main goal, a goal which obtainable if the season plays out as projected; and
– Tier Four: A team going through a rebuilding season. You can squint at the schedule and perhaps find six wins and a bowl bid, but a losing season is the most likely outcome.
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A look at the first eight Big 12 teams … at least alphabetically …
Arizona
Picked 5th in the Big 12 preseason media poll … Athlon … 5th in the Big 12/23rd nationally … Lindy’s: 5th /23rd
Arizona went 10-3 (7-2) in the Wildcats’ final season in the Pac-12, and enter the 2024 season on a seven-game winning streak. Had head coach Jedd Fisch stayed in Tucson, instead of leaving Arizona to become the coach at Washington, the Wildcats might have been one of the favorites to compete for a conference title in their first season in the Big 12.
As it is, Arizona is still considered to be a borderline Top 25 team, with the chance to make some serious noise in the wide open Big 12. If you haven’t heard about the combination of quarterback Noah Fifita and wide receiver Tetairoa McMillan, you will. Last fall, Fifita threw for over 2,800 yards, with almost half of those passing yards (1,402) going to T-Mac, who found the end zone ten times.
Giving pause about ranking Arizona as a favorite in the Big 12 are the following: the defensive line needs to be completely rebuilt, almost all of the rushing production was lost … and head coach Brent Brennan, coming to Arizona from San Jose State, is taking a step up in competition (CU remember that another San Jose State head coach, Mike MacIntyre, had some issues adjusting to the Power Five level when he came to Boulder).
Schedule … Manageable. Arizona hosts New Mexico and Northern Arizona as warmups before facing Kansas State on the road in a non-conference game. The Wildcats, after a bye, will then take on Utah, but the schedule softens thereafter. Arizona misses both Kansas schools as conference opponents, and also miss Oklahoma State.
v. Colorado … The teams will meet in Tucson on October 19th.
Rating … Tier Two … If this was still Jedd Fisch’s team, I would put Arizona in the top tier. The Wildcats have talented players back from a ten-win team, and have a favorable schedule, but Brent Brennan needs to prove he can coach at the Power Four level.
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Arizona State
Picked 16th in the Big 12 preseason media poll … Athlon: 13th in the Big 12/67th nationally … Lindy’s: 15th /77th
ASU coach Kenny Dillingham in entering his second year in Tempe. This being the case, you would think that the national pundits would be comparing Coach Prime and Coach Dillingham as being similarly situated – first year in the Pac-12; second in the Big 12.
But Dillingham, who went 3-9 in 2023, including a home loss to Colorado, is being given a pass by the national media.
From ESPN … The Sun Devils almost can’t be worse than they were last year, and there does appear to be some upside here and there, but against a schedule that features seven top-50 opponents, ASU will have to improve a ton to reach a bowl. Last year was an extreme Year 0 for Dillingham, and this almost feels like a Year 0.5.
You can search all you want – you’re not going to find any national commentator giving Coach Prime a pass for the 2024 season … not that he was given a pass for the 2023 season, either.
Anyway, off the soapbox.
After landing 31 transfers in 2023, Dillingham went for another 29 in 2024, so ASU is in serious rebuilding mode, but without the quality transfers CU is pulling in. There is also the issue of the losses in the Transfer Portal, including quarterback Jaden Rashada (to Georgia) and defensive lineman BJ Green, who is making preseason award watch lists as a Buff.
Schedule … A problem. There aren’t any easy non-conference contests, with games against Wyoming and Mississippi State, together with a road game at Texas State (which beat Baylor last year). The Sun Devils are also burdened with facing (along with CU and BYU) the task of facing all five of the top rated teams in the conference – Arizona, Kansas, Oklahoma State, Utah and Kansas State.
v. Colorado … The teams don’t play again until CU hosts Arizona State in Boulder in 2025.
Rating … Tier Four … It’s difficult to see a path to six wins with this roster and this schedule. Too bad the Buffs don’t have the Sun Devils on the schedule this fall.
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Baylor
Picked 12th in the Big 12 preseason media poll … Athlon: 12th in the Big 12/66th nationally … Lindy’s: 12th /50th
One of the few Big 12 coaches who are high on the “hot seat” rankings this off-season is Baylor’s Dave Aranda. In his fifth season in Waco, Aranda sports a 23-25 overall record, with a 3-9 disappointment last fall making the 2024 season a make-or-break season for the Bears. It’s not going to be easy for a team which lost seven of a school-record eight home games last fall, finishing the season on a five-game losing streak.
Aranda is pinning his hopes on Toledo transfer quarterback Dequan Finn, the MAC Player-of-the-Year last fall. The problem, as Buff fans are used to hearing, are on the lines, with both the offensive line (Big 12 high 34 sacks allowed) and defensive line (115th ranked rushing defense) still filled with questions.
Schedule … The Bears open with a layup with a game against the Tarleton State Texans, before facing Utah on the road (as a non-conference opponent) and a tough game against Air Force. Baylor could well be 1-2 when the Bears come to Boulder to open Big 12 play. Baylor does miss Kansas State, and gets contenders Oklahoma State and Kansas at home, but it’s hard to see six wins with this schedule.
v. Colorado … The teams will meet in Boulder on September 21st in the Big 12 opener for both teams.
Rating … Tier Four … Coach Aranda will pull out all of the stops to get to six wins and keep his job, but the more likely scenario is Baylor coming up short of bowl eligibility.
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BYU
Picked 13th in the Big 12 preseason media poll … Athlon: 14th in the Big 12/68th nationally … Lindy’s: 13th /62nd
Forty years ago, BYU went 13-0 and won maybe the most shocking national title of all time. Since then, the Cougars have been working to join the upper echelon of college football. Last fall, BYU got its wish, joining the Big 12.
Their Big 12 debut … wasn’t great. The offense vanished after a 5-2 start, and the defense wasn’t nearly good enough to pick up the slack. Still, with a bowl bid on the line, the Cougars showed some grit, falling to Oklahoma 31-24 and Oklahoma State – in double overtime – 40-34. Though, like Nebraska, BYU fell late, going from 5-2 to 5-7.
The bowl-less season was just the second season in the past 19 in which the Cougars failed to make the post-season. Head coach Kalani Sitake is relying on former Baylor and South Florida quarterback Gerry Bohanon to bring BYU victories. Bohanon did lead Baylor to the Big 12 title in 2021, but hasn’t played since 2022 due to a shoulder injury.
Schedule … After opening at home against Southern Illinois, BYU must take to the road to take on SMU 9a new ACC team and Wyoming. Like CU and Arizona State, the Cougars must face all five of the top teams in the conference, though four of the five come to Provo.
v. Colorado … The Buffs and Cougars haven’t played since the 1980s, and won’t meet again until they play in Boulder in 2025.
Rating … Tier Four … The path to six wins would require beating SMU, Wyoming, Baylor and perhaps Arizona State … with all four games on the road. It’s possible, but not likely. It may be a second consecutive 5-7 season for the Cougars.
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Central Florida
Picked 8th in the Big 12 preseason media poll … Athlon: 10th in the Big 12/48th nationally … Lindy’s: 9th /43rd
Four teams made their Big 12 debut in 2023, and none of them finished with a winning record. Cincinnati came in at 3-9, Houston finished 4-8, while BYU ended up 5-7. Central Florida, meanwhile, came the closest to a winning record in its Power Four debut, completing the regular season 6-6, falling to 6-7 after a 30-17 loss to Georgia Tech in the Gasparilla Bowl.
And the Knights are projected to have the best of it in Year Two.
Head coach Gus Malzahn is bringing in transfer quarterback K.J. Jefferson to take over an offense which was 8th in the nation in total yards last fall. Jefferson was a three-year starter at Arkansas, with almost 8,000 passing yards (with 67 touchdowns), and over 1,800 yards rushing (with 21 more scores).
Figuring out the defense is a little trickier, since Malzahn basically traded out one lineup (seven of last year’s starters are gone) for another (12 incoming transfers were at least part-time starters elsewhere). Even with pad-your-stats games against Kent State (56-6) and Villanova (48-14), the Knights finished last year with the 122nd-ranked rushing defense.
Bottom line: Central Florida is going to play plenty of 41-38 games this fall.
Schedule … Central Florida opens with two wins against New Hampshire and Sam Houston State before traveling to TCU to open Big 12 play. The Knights then get an early bye week before facing CU … and then a chance to take down Florida in The Swamp. Central Florida misses both Kansas schools and Oklahoma State.
v. Colorado … The teams will meet in Orlando on September 28th.
Rating … Tier Two … You can pencil in four home wins for the Knights (New Hampshire, Sam Houston, Cincinnati, BYU) before the season starts. The UCF offense will keep the Knights in most of the other eight games, so anything short of a bowl bid would be a disappointment. The UCF offense, though, will keep the Knights from threatening for a title bid.
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Cincinnati
Picked 14th in the Big 12 preseason media poll … Athlon: 15th in the Big 12/73rd nationally … Lindy’s: 16th /79th
Luke Fickell did Scott Satterfield no favors. In 2020-21, Fickell generated back-to-back top-10 finishes at Cincinnati, the second and third such finishes in school history; after winning nine or more games only seven times before 2018, the Bearcats did so five years in a row.
Fickell left for Wisconsin, and Satterfield went 3-9 in the Bearcats’ Power Four debut.
Cincinnati’s offense ran the ball well but consistently self-destructed in the red zone, and the defense gave up a steady stream of devastating big plays. The schedule got harder just as Cincy fielded its worst team in six years. Running back Corey and an excellent offensive line return, but they were there last year as well. Indiana transfer quarterback Brendan Sorsby will hope to balance the offense, while the defense, 100th in scoring defense and 93rd in total defense, continues to be a work in progress.
Schedule … Cincinnati gets an opener against the Towson Tigers before facing Pitt (also 3-9 last season) and going on the road to face MAC-favorite Miami (Ohio). The Big 12 schedule is as gentle as it can get, with no Kansas, no Oklahoma State, no Arizona and no Utah on the calendar.
v. Colorado … The Buffs and Bearcats have played once before (1972, a 56-14 CU victory). Cincinnati returns to Boulder for the second-ever matchup on October 26th.
Rating … Tier Four … If CU had Cincinnati’s schedule, I would feel obliged to start saving for a bowl trip. Home games against Towson, Houston, and Arizona State potentially gets the Bearcats halfway to bowl eligibility. Cincinnati may improve on its 3-9 record of last year, but it’s still hard to see the Bearcats getting to six wins and a bowl.
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Colorado
Picked 11th in the Big 12 preseason media poll … Athlon: 11th in the Big 12/50th nationally … Lindy’s: 11th /49th
We’ve spent the long off-season talking about CU’s lineup and the Buffs’ chances for success in 2024, so we won’t go into depth on those issues here.
If you need a fix, here are two Essays dissecting CU’s schedule:
And here are four podcasts discussing CU’s 2024 season:
- Schedule Countdown – Ranking the Buffs’ 2024 Opponents
- Projecting CU’s Starting Lineup: Offense
- Projecting CU’s Starting Lineup: Defense and Special Teams
- Our Big 12 Preview: Team-by-Team Projections for the 2024 Season
Schedule … Difficult. If the Buffs had Cincinnati’s schedule (see above), or even CU’s 2025 schedule (non-conference games against Georgia Tech, Delaware and Wyoming – all at home, Big 12 home games against Arizona State, BYU, Arizona and Iowa State; road Big 12 road games against Utah, TCU, Houston, Kansas State and West Virginia), I would put the 2024 Buffs in Tier Two. As it is, there are four games Buff fans look to for victories: North Dakota State; at Colorado State; Baylor; Cincinnati. After that, you can make an argument for CU winning almost all of its other games, as the toughest opponents all come to Boulder. You can also, though, make an argument that the Buffs can lose most of those games.
Rating … Tier Three … The Buffs have the chance to be competitive in almost every game this fall. That statement in an of itself indicates the program has made tremendous strides under Coach Prime. But there is still much to be determined, with both lines potentially suspect, and a linebacker corps which could be a liability. Colorado is definitely in the messy middle of the Big 12 … and that ain’t a bad place to be in 2024.
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Houston
Picked 16th in the Big 12 preseason media poll … Athlon: 16th in the Big 12/75th nationally … Lindy’s: 14th /74th
First-year Houston head coach Willie Fritz is easy to root for. He took over Georgia Southern as the Eagles were jumping to FBS and won 16 of his first 21 games. He took over a dire Tulane program and left it having won 23 of his last 27 games.
Willie Fritz wins. The 64-year-old finally gets a shot at a power conference gig, and there’s no reason to think he won’t make the most of it. Eventually.
Last season, Houston went 4-8, including wins over UTSA and Sam Houston. Six of the seven losses in Houston’s first year as a Power Four conference program were by double digits, an indication as to how far the Cougars have to go.
Schedule … Tough. The Cougars get no breaks in non-conference play, with games against UNLV (Mountain West title game participant last fall), at Oklahoma, and against cross-town rival Rice. Of the tough five Big 12 programs, Houston misses only Oklahoma State, and has to play Kansas, Utah, Kansas State and Arizona back-to-back-to-back-to-back.
v. Colorado … The Buffs and Cougars have only played once before, with CU winning the Bluebonnet Bowl in 1971, 29-17, to finish with a No. 3 national ranking. Colorado will take to the road to play Houston in 2025, with the Buffs hosting the Cougars for the first time ever in 2026.
Rating … Tier Four …
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That’s enough for now. Eight teams down; eight teams to go …
A recap of the first Big 12 teams (at least alphabetically):
– Tier One: none
– Tier Two: Arizona; Central Florida
– Tier Three: Colorado
– Tier Four: Arizona State; Baylor; BYU; Cincinnati; Houston
Still to come:
— Iowa State; Kansas; Kansas State; Oklahoma State; TCU; Texas Tech; Utah; and West Virginia
With the “Big 12 Preview – Part Two” (coming next Sunday), I will also give you my picks for the two teams who will participate in the 2024 Big 12 championship game on December 7th in AT & T Stadium in Arlington, Texas.
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