CU Recruiting Renaissance

8 Replies to “CU Recruiting Renaissance”

1. RobO made a good point on 2/5 about NIL. Sorry to be responding to this late. Over the last few days, the details of the failed Rashada Florida Collective deal were made public. Perhaps, Stuart will have some insight/thoughts on this or write another article addressing NIL again.

   I think NIL will evolve and probably be less money than we think but maybe include most all the scholarship players. In the beginning, I heard the Caleb Williams’ etc.. made bank. I think you could get decent money if you are a Top20-30 overall recruit–Arch Manning (not that he needs it). Most of the others will get some but it cannot set you up for life. One Rashada article said the max deal rumored in college football is in the $8M range.

   With the Rashada deal falling through, it tells me four things: (1) your expected NIL deal is only as good as the people underwriting it and the actual contract itself; (2) there will be some NIL/Boosters backers who will lose it all, and just not pay out–this does happens under many different circumstances–i.e. Sports Authority went BK, then Mile High had no naming sponsor for a few years; (3) teams and NIL collectives are re-thinking things in terms of maximizing the player potential while protecting the school, coaches and overall locker-room; and (4) any agreement has to protect the player.

   Rashada’s Florida deal was sort of dead on arrival. It gave him $500,000 the moment he enrolled in school. Since the deal was signed before him enrolling, this looked like an inducement to sign, not NIL to be earned. This probably put the school in trouble or at substantial risk. Rashada did enroll in school, but if I had to bet, the school pulled the initial $500K payment, which never arrived. Thus, hence he asked out of his NLI and they let him out.

   Rashada’s deal was $13.5M was over 4 years, which I found odd. $250K/mo as Frosh, $291K.mo as Soph, $375K/mo as Jr (if so, he would be making more over two months, than many assistant coaches.) If you are a Star QB, how many stay 4-5 years? If you are starting but not quite a Star, wouldn’t the NIL collective want you out before paying $375K/mo as a junior? Conversely, if you flame out or get beat out, you transfer anyways?

   Another problem, the NIL contract provided termination at anytime without cause or reason (the collective can “in its sole and absolute discretion” … terminate the agreement “without penalty or further obligation”). In lawyer terms this is a “Phantom Earn-Out Agreement.” It does not protect the player at all.

   The Rashada NIL requirements for the huge money were “nil:” 1) Reside in Gainsville (not sure if full time or part time); 2) one “branded internet” post–Twitter/Facebook each month; 3) eight fan engagements yearly; and 4) fifteen autographs on memorabilia. One article mentioned it was incentive based, so I’m not sure if this required football metrics/exposure (ie. play certain # of games, start at QB??). This might not have been in the actual contract but could be part of the understanding (I’m sure there were emails going back and forth saying something). If football metrics/incentives exist, this presents an absolute nightmare for the player and coaching staff/school.

   For team chemistry and coaching flexibility purposes (I would not want NIL backers even insinuating that their guy has to play) all NIL deals need somewhat equal footing. Some guys can have more, but if the team NIL is a few haves, and a bunch of have-nots; that can rupture a locker-room. 18-23 yo athletes are interesting, as is. I think this is why most of the major professional sports have rookie contract schemes that don’t break the bank (i.e. young NHL stars live with older players). With a Rashada type deal and Rashada not playing to expectations, team chemistry could be throttled–something like the Bronco’s saddled with Russ Wilson’s contract. Another is Barry Bonds not well liked in the Giants clubhouse despite still winning MVP’s due to all the special clubhouse perks the Giants gave him. Even grown men get jealous seeing it in their face everyday. I would imagine if things were not quickly working out for Rashada, the upperclassmen would not take well to him making $250K/mo as a redshirt; then $300K/mo as a Soph unless he is the starting QB and they are winning games. This would be quite the rub.

   NIL will evolve. IMO, NIL should make the players comfortable with spending money, telephones, family attending games, being able to fly home, maybe a car, or nicer housing (after SO year), certainly an insurance policy for injury or future medicals. A deal cannot be so much so soon that a player loses sight and NIL becomes a total distraction for the player, locker-room, coaches etc… I don’t think you can set up a FR for life with millions, or there is a huge risk they just don’t focus on football enough. IMO, huge NIL can disincentivize a 17-18yo. Could you imagine Darrell Scott with a huge NIL contract? JaMarcus Russell (we know what he did with his huge rookie deal)? There are many examples of players across all sports.

   Also, IMO, this may be a deal with the school or apparel provider, but they should get a piece of the merchandise pool if their jersey is a good seller. Same with the NCAA football video games etc… Same with autographs on sports memorabilia sold. Plus, a reasonable NIL contract, but not millions. Also, you can’t have a LIV golf situation where you get guaranteed $$ up front or in tranches, then they draw against your outside revenue…

   The last point I would make on huge NIL deals, I am sure this is prohibited, but if a Shady NIL deal puts a young at-risk for mortgaging their future earnings in the NFL or anything else that is a huge problem. When you sign a $13.5M contract you employ a reputed Sports Attorney; Most are pseudo agents anyways. This is a very fine line that is rife with risk. You get that old pseudo agent/Ed Martin (Michigan Fab-5) relationship problem, where there are expectations down the line. Finally, if an 18yo is flush with a ton of cash, then there are purchases plus investments, plus in theory it should be easy to get larger loans with a % down, as you have income and expected future income. I don’t think you want that creeping in for 17-18 yo’s because if they run up a balance way over their eventual NIL payout, the only way to make it back is as a Successful Pro. That is a long-shot.

   A final side-note that a close friend who played major college football decades ago, he highlighted how things were under the old NCAA system. Each team would have some rich kids, where their college years were very easy and they had a great time irrespective of how good they were at football. On the other side were poorer kids who got their scholarship and a small stipend–they had trouble just calling home, flying home for holidays, and minimal funds to do much of anything–those were the much better players. That created problems in many locker-rooms back then. A Frosh pocketing $500K the day he enrolls + $250K/mo is not a good recipe.

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2. I really want to understand NIL these days. I am positive or donors are not shelling out millions of dollars, we would have heard of that. But Coach Prime tells everyone he wants to make the kid comfortable while he is here. What does that take 20k? 40k? It probably depends on the kid but I am betting every 4 star is looking for something along 20k minimum, 5 stars more, maybe? But I think that sort of money is something CU can do.

   Thanks Stuart for the article. I was thinking much along the same lines. We have so many transfers we are 21 just becuase of the scale, but seeing the quality and how that compares to what we were in the past. Do we know how that compares to Utah, USC, Oregon? How many 4 stars and 5 stars are in their 23 recruiting class.

   One last set of notes: the custodian told Coach Mo that she has not seen the team work this hard before. I have to say that surprises me and yet doesn’t. The off-season workouts I have seen online are 100% within my expectations for a football program. If we were not showing this effort beforehand across the entire team no wonder we were getting pushed around (I think historically only a few players pushed themselves in th3 off-season and others went through the motions.).

   We have some grown a$$ men on the team. The new tight end looks bigger and stronger than Brady ever did. Sami is no longer a giant and fits in with the other guys, the wide recievers not only look fast but some pf them look seriously strong (MLC looks really good), Travis Hunter is no longer just that lengthy kid, he has added some weight and size and looks so quick. Shedeur looks real solid as well. I am excited not just by the new comers though. I think there is some real talent on this team it was just not being pushed right. Will Reed add the size he needs to compete with Cormani and Hunter for playing time? Will woods add the size he needs to beat out Shilo and the other Jackson State safety and the other transfer? Will Sami add the strength and technique he needs? I think we had 3 good o line will they continue the development we saw during last year? I still say Williams could be special at linebacker, I am interested to see if Kerry develops more there. I loved Hankerson last year and he was injured for a lot of it.

   I am excited for the spring game!

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   1. Rob O

      Here ya go.
      Be surprised at the # of 4 stars.

      And for a real treat click on the
      “ALL”
      Button
      https://247sports.com/Season/2023-Football/OverallTeamRankings/?Conference=Pac-12

      Go prime buffs…………………”Still got a long way to go”

      Reply

      1. and when looking at it a different way

         usc 33 commits 1 two star or below
         Oregon 39 commits 2 two stars or below
         Colorado 43 commits 11 two stars or below

         or
         usc nineteen 4 and 5 star to thirteen 3 star
         Oregon twenty-five 4 and 5 star to twelve 3 star
         Colorado eight 4 and 5 star to twenty 4 3 star.

         gotta win this year to reverse the 5-4 star with the 3 star

         Go Prime…………………………………..will it to happen

         Reply

         1. Thank VK,
            This shows that while this class is much more talented than ours has been it’s still way below the blue bloods. It always stuns me how bad those blue bloods often play. USC will collapse when punched in the mouth. Oregon often the same. I wonder why? Does USC and Pregon get all the 4-5 star wide recievers and db’s while Alabama, Michigan, Georgia racking up lineman? Qb’s matter of course more than most but why does USC through multiple coaches show that same tendency to fall apart when they are out physicalled? Maybe everyone does, heck TCU definitely did during the national championship and Texas is just a garbage heap when compared to where they should be with their talent…..

            I recognize that 4-5 stars make a difference. But I wonder what the difference if between those elite programs that get tons of talent. Is it where that talent is coming from or is it in the coaching and management?

            Reply

            1. The answer to your question?
               Check out USC’s 2021 roster … plenty of 4- and 5-stars … and a 4-8 record.

            2. Ya then look at 2022.
               New coach and new players

               Buffs beat usc

3. “I can’t wait to get into a home so I can lay down and chill and have a dog run around the yard and call a place home, but this is unbelievable I had no idea.” (Perhaps Coach Prime will be staying more than 2-3 years in Boulder?)”

   I’ve been saying this all along, go a head and look at my posts, I’ll wait…

   After watching CP’s CBS interview before he even took the job, and the other videos of him arriving and seeing his reaction to Boulder the community, Boulder the school, Boulder the Champion Center AND those great Rocky Mountains; along with the relationship between RG & him and I’m not sure why if successful he would be in a hurry to leave.

   Great move by Rick George to get CP up to Vail for some snowmobiling and fun!

   “They have been part of 49 10-win seasons which means these guys know what they’re doing.” (You get the feeling Coach Prime might be right? That this coaching staff will put together a lineup and a game plan which can compete in the Pac-12?)”

   And one of the reasons CP is killing it in recruiting, the one place I was totally wrong, wait for it…

   I thought CP would be successful because of who his is, very true still, but I also though he’d bring in sponsors who would provide NIL, but NO! I was wrong, he is simply telling them I will get you THE NFL not nil. Which is nil, as in nothing compared to the NFL. And it’s working because of CP is a GOAT and the staff he’s put together.

   Coaches who a year ago we wouldn’t have seen in CU’s future, none of us! Grand Slam Home Run MR. George! Quality coaches and CP’s himself are getting recruits without promises of nil. They will still get NIL once the team starts winning, but I gotta believe that this really is going to be a major difference in CP’s team v. a A&M that spent a boat load of money last year for what?

   Kids coming in to build something and earn their place at the NFL table are the type of players that should grow together as they push through CP & staff’s workouts. They will work harder for these coaches that have been there and been successful.

   Add in how truly awesome Boulder really is and once the kids find out what a gem it is the 2nd and 3rd year players will help in the recruiting too.

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