CU v. Northern Colorado – “T.I.P.S.” for Buffs v. Bears

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CU v. Northern Colorado Preview: “T.I.P.S.” for the ’21 season opener

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… Related … If you prefer your predictions verbally, “CU at the Game Podcast: Pac-12 Division Races / ‘T.I.P.S.’ for CU v. UNC” can be found at Apple Podcasts, Google Podcasts, or pretty much wherever you download your favorites. Or, if you would prefer, you can find the podcast here or here.

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There has been very little that has been normal about college football for the past 18 months.

Here’s the thing … even if 2021 had been “normal”, the opening wouldn’t have felt that way for the Buff Nation. For the first time since 1994, CSU is off of the schedule. The Buffs were supposed to open up the 2020 season in Ft. Collins, bringing to a merciful end the Rocky Mountain Showdown series. This fall would have ended a streak of 26 consecutive seasons with games against the Rams.

As it turned out CU, after several fits and starts, didn’t play Colorado State in 2020 – in Ft. Collins or otherwise. Instead of facing the Rams, the Buffs opened the 2020 season against UCLA, a satisfying 48-42 victory. A promising 4-0 start led to a national ranking, but an 0-2 finish left the Buffs with questions left to answer.

This fall, as the Buffs open their second season under Karl Dorrell, the first opponent will be the Northern Colorado Bears from the Big Sky Conference.

Easy win, right?

Well, one Las Vegas site only had CU as about a two-touchdown favorite, which isn’t a huge spread for a CU home game against a team which last played in 2019 … when the Bears posted a 2-10 record. (Subsequent lines are much more favorable to the Buffs. Here’s one with a 35.5-point line).

Perhaps Vegas is on to something. The only other time the Buffs have opened the season against an FCS opponent was in 2006. That fall, the Dan Hawkins’ era at Colorado opened with a thud … an inauspicious 19-10 loss to Montana State.

Yuck. Perhaps we shouldn’t look backward, but forward …

So, without further adieu, here are the inaugural “T.I.P.S.” of the 2021 season …

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This Week’s “T.I.P.S” for CU v. Northern Colorado – 7:00 p.m., MT, Pac-12 Networks

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T – Talent

It’s hard to discuss the Northern Colorado Bears without mentioning the name McCaffrey.

The Mac-to-Mac-to-Mac connection in Greeley features quarterback Dylan McCaffrey, transferring in from Michigan. Dylan’s big brother, Max, has put NFL tryouts on the backburner to serve as the Bears’ offensive coordinator. They’re joining forces with their dad, Ed, the longtime NFL receiver who was hired as head coach in December, 2019, and will finally make his college coaching debut at Colorado (the Bears’ season in 2020 was postponed due to the virus. UNC did not play any games this spring, but did have some full scrimmages against two Division II teams, Chadron State (Neb.) and Colorado State-Pueblo).

A dual-threat at Michigan, Dylan had a shot at the starter’s job with the Wolverines last season before dealing with an injury. He ended up entering the transfer portal and joined his dad with the Bears.

“Guys are flying, guys are competing,” Dylan said when asked about the speed difference between the Big Ten and the Big Sky. “It’s been so good to see just the talent on both sides. It’s been incredible.”

What does Coach Ed McCaffrey have to work with?

Suffice it to say, this is not the same team which last saw the field in November of 2019. There are 22 transfers and 11 JUCOs on the Bears’ roster, giving them 33 players that should be chomping at the bit to play. Included on the list are a number of transfers from Power Five schools, including three from CU (defensive linemen Tava Finau and Austin Williams; defensive back Uryan Hudson).

On offense, Dylan McCaffrey will have some weapons at his disposal. Senior running back Tru Wilson is another Michigan transfer, while Dylan Thomas (TCU transfer) and Kassidy Woods (Washington State transfer) provide Power Five experience on the outside. The top returning receiver is sophomore Jaren Mitchell, who recorded 48 receptions for 740 yards and two touchdowns in 2019.

The defense, though, doesn’t have the same star power which dots the roster on offense. And the defensive coordinator – along with about half of the coaching staff – coached with Ed McCaffrey at Valor Christian high school. A grand experiment –

While there has been an influx of new talent in Greeley, this is still the team which, when it last took to the field in 2019, was losing by scores of 45-14 (to Montana State), 50-0 (to Sacramento State), and 59-17 (to Washington State).

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I – Intangibles

The last best chance for Northern Colorado to upset the Buffs may come at the opening coin toss.

And I’m pretty serious here.

If CU wins the coin toss, and defers to the second half (which the Buffs should not do), CU will put the UNC offense on the field for the first series of the game.

Why would that matter?

Putting Dylan McCaffrey on the field first gives the Bears the opportunity to control the opening tempo of the game. Northern Colorado, quite literally, has nothing to lose in this contest, so why not pull out all of the stops? Reverses, half back options, fake punts … it’s all on the table for a coaching staff and a team which has had – wait for it – almost two full years to prepare for this game. The Colorado coaching staff has no tape to watch (Coach Dorrell indicated that the coaching staff did watch some Valor Christian tape from several years ago … for what it was worth), so the Buff defense will be flying blind – at least at the start of the game.

Conversely, if the Colorado offense is on the field to open the game, the Buffs can dictate the tempo. Jarek Broussard up the middle … dump off to Brady Russell over the middle … slant to Dimitri Stanley or Brenden Rice.  CU can march down the field on its own terms against an undersized and undermanned UNC defense, taking the wind out of the sails of the Bears and their fans before the UNC offense even has the chance to take the field.

If the Bears on on the field first, and can find some success (by trickery or otherwise), the Buffs may give the Bears hope, and hope makes for a tense game in the stands for the Buff Nation.

The last time UNC played a Pac-12 team, it was September, 2019. Northern Colorado played Washington State in Pullman, with the Cougars running away with a 59-17 victory.

Sounds good.

It was 7-7, though, late in the first quarter of that game, and only 21-10, Washington State, deep into the second quarter … so the game was not as quite as easy as the final score would indicate.

And remember the last time UNC played in Boulder? It was only four years ago, in a game which Lance Carl in our interview last month called “ugggly”.

In the 2017 game, UNC actually took a 7-0 lead over the Buffs early in the first quarter, and it was only 14-7 Buffs in the second quarter. Northern Colorado scored late in the second, and again early in the third, making it a 28-21 game. It wasn’t until midway through the fourth quarter, when Steven Montez hit Jay MacIntyre for a 14-yard score and a 38-21 lead, that the Buff Nation was finally allowed to breath easy.

So, when the captains walk towards midfield for the coin toss, pay attention.

It could actually make a difference which team kicks off.

(Oh, and Buffs … if you do get to receive the opening kickoff … watch out for the onside kick!).

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P – Preparation/Schedule

As noted, Northern Colorado did not play an official game during the 2020 season. While some Big Sky teams played in the spring, the Bears completely opted out of playing any league games. As a result, the last time UNC played a game which counted was on November 23, 2019, a 28-21 loss to Cal Poly. The last time the Bears walked off of the field of play as victors was on November 2, 2019, a 28-20 win over Idaho State.

The Bears did get in two controlled scrimmages this spring, playing two Division II schools, Chadron State (Nebraska) and Colorado State-Pueblo.

“I really appreciate them bringing this team out there and competing with us,” said UNC coach Ed McCaffrey after his Bears beat Chadron State, 43-6. “They got better, we got better.”

While the games may have not counted in the standings, coaches and players were excited for the opportunity.

“We’ve got a long way to go. We have a tough opponent to open up with next year, but I’m really proud of them,” McCaffrey said. “I think we’re where we need to be as a team as of today. We certainly can get better and hopefully will get better.”

Colorado, meanwhile, last took the field in December in San Antonio, absorbing an embarrassing 55-23 loss to Texas.

Both teams come into the 2021 season opener even in terms of fall preparation, as this will be the season opener for both teams.

The opponents for the following games, however, couldn’t be more different.

Both CU and UNC will take on teams from southeast Texas.

The Buffs will battle No. 6 Texas A&M in Denver.

The Bears, meanwhile, will battle … the Houston Baptist.

The Houston Baptist Huskies, in case you were wondering, are an FCS team who play in the Southland Conference (home to schools like Incarnate Word and Nicholls). Houston Baptist did play last year, posting a 1-3 record.

So, if you were a Northern Colorado Bear, would you be more focused on the Buffs or the Huskies?

Meanwhile, if you were a Buff, would you be more focused on the Bears or the Aggies?

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S – Statistics 

It’s difficult to use the 2019 statistics against the 2021 Northern Colorado Bears, but you have to work off of something.

— The 2-10 Bears were out-scored by an average tally of 37-20.

— The UNC offense was fairly competitive in the passing game, trailing their opponents, 259 yards per/game v. 248 yards/game for the Bears. Where Northern Colorado was dominated, however, was in the run game, running the ball for only 108 yards/game … while giving up 248 yards/game.

Paging Jarek Broussard …

If the Buffs don’t have a 100-yard rusher against the Bears … or two … then CU is in trouble.

Perhaps the best numbers to gauge where Northern Colorado stands as the 2021 season unfolds is the Big Sky preseason polls. In the media poll, the Bears were picked to finish 12th in the 13-team Big Sky Conference.

In the preseason Big Sky coaches poll, the Bears were picked to finish … last.

Now, in the Pac-12 preseason media poll, Colorado was a solid pick to finish 5th in the Pac-12 South, so the Buffs don’t have much to brag about.

But expectations for CU are certainly higher as the 2021 season unfolds.

For Northern Colorado, even a few wins this fall would be considered as progress … the Bears have won only seven games in the past three seasons of play.

“One of our goals has been to play to win,” Ed McCaffrey said. “That just means preparing to the best of our ability, playing with great effort, and being determined to be the best that we can be on each and every snap that we play.”

He said playing with physicality, discipline and focus should win games. The national championship might be out of reach for this season — and that’s fine — but there aren’t concerns about eventually reaching their own expectations.

“I think it starts there, with the process,” Ed McCaffrey said. “I want to be able to look our coaches and players in the eye after the game, and I want us to know that we gave each other everything we had. At the end of the day, it’s really all you can do and the scoreboard will take care of itself.”

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Prediction … 

Last year, the Buffs under Karl Dorrell defied the odds.

Las Vegas put the over/under on CU wins for the seven-game season at 1.5.

Pat Rooney of the Boulder Daily Camera had the Buffs posting a 1-6 record. (This year, Rooney says it’s “difficult for this crystal ball to see beyond a 5-7 record for CU in Year Two of the Dorrell Era“).

Jon Wilner of the San Jose Mercury News, similarly, had CU posting one win in 2020 (Wilner is not exactly bullish on the Buffs for 2021, either, picking CU to finish 4-8, 2-7)

Last fall, it was hard to feel good about picking a team to win many contests with a head coach who hadn’t been able to meet with his team for his first six months on the job, with a quarterback who hadn’t started a game since his senior year in high school … in 2015, and a freshman running back also making his debut.

All Sam Noyer did was to go on to be named second-team All-Pac-12, with Jarek Broussard being named the Pac-12 Offensive Player-of-the-Year. The Buffs finished 4-2, with Karl Dorrell being named Pac-12 Coach-of-the-Year.

The Buff in 2021 don’t need to defy odds in order to be successful … at least in the opener. They just need to meet expectations.

The expectations are that the offense under Brendon Lewis will be run-oriented, with the offensive line dominating the line of scrimmage as the CU coaching staff tries to ease Lewis into his first collegiate start.

I can see Northern Colorado keeping it close early, especially if the Bears get the ball first (see above), and have a chance to use some of the plays and formations that they have been practicing for months … and no one else has seen.

Once the CU coaching staff, though, has had the chance to see what the Bears have to offer, they should – make that better – make adjustments, and take control of the game.

For those who have made the trip up from Denver for a Friday night game, and want to get home at a decent hour … they should have that opportunity.

Will Karl Dorrell take it easy late on his former player, or keep starters in the game to get them ready for A&M?

Probably more likely the former, rather than the latter, making the final score less appealing than some Buff fans are hoping for to open the 2021 season.

Prediction … Colorado 38, Northern Colorado 17. 

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This post, about the Northern Colorado game, from the 2021 Season, is filed under Article.
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