Random Thoughts – Lies, Damned Lies, and Statistics Edition

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Random Thoughts – Lies, Damned Lies, and Statistics Edition – Volume XXXII

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Buff Trivia Question of the Week … In CU’s history as a member of the Big Seven, Big Eight, Big 12, and Pac-12, how many first year Buff coaches have enjoyed a winning record in their first season?

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Attributed to 19th century British prime minister Benjamin Disraeli, “Lies, damned lies and statistics” is a phrase which is certainly fitting when it comes to college football.

Here are some stats about your Buffs to contemplate as we are now under 50 days to the start of the 2019 season …

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Winning the Close Ones …

Colorado fans have suffered a great deal over the past 13 seasons, with only one winning season since 2005. The 10-4 campaign in 2016 represents the Buffs’ only winning season since joining the Pac-12, with a pair of 5-7 records the past two years.

Perhaps we are closer to being on the winning side of the ledger than we thought. “That’s So David” posted the following on his Twitter account (and thanks to Ron Ward for finding it):

Record in one-score games by Power-Five teams since 2011 (when CU joined the Pac-12):

Best:

• Clemson, 24-4
• Ohio State, 25-9
• Oklahoma State, 22-11
• Florida State, 22-11
• Oklahoma, 19-10
• Alabama, 13-7
• Michigan State, 26-15
• Illinois, 15-9
• South Carolina, 28-17

Worst:

• Kansas, 5-16
• Indiana, 14-28
• Colorado, 11-20
• Arkansas, 12-21
• Georgia Tech, 14-22
• Oregon State, 11-17
• Mississippi, 11-17
• Purdue, 13-20
• Tennessee, 13-20
• Iowa State, 16-24

In 2015, when Colorado finished 4-9, the Buffs lost five games by a touchdown or less (Hawai’i, 28-20; Arizona, 38-31; Utah, 20-14; UCLA, 35-31; and USC, 27-24).

In 2017, when Colorado finished 5-7, the Buffs lost two games by a touchdown or less (UCLA, 27-23; Arizona, 45-42).

In 2018, when Colorado finished 5-7, the Buffs lost two games by a touchdown or less (Arizona, 42-34; Oregon State, 41-34, OT).

If you are Buff fan looking as CU’s glass as being half full, you can argue that the Buffs are just a completed pass here or a third down stop there from being bowl bound four consecutive seasons.

Of course, if that were true, we wouldn’t have Mel Tucker …

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But at least CU is not under-performing based upon its Recruiting Classes … 

Another ranking, this time taking a look at the biggest gaps between average recruiting ranking and average performance ranking over past four years:

1. Rutgers
2. Kansas
3. Maryland
4. UCLA
5. Oregon State
6. Illinois
7. Nebraska

The translation here … three teams who the Buffs faced last year have been under-performing based upon the grades their Recruiting Classes have been given, and their performance on the field.

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Colorado has a winning streak against over half of its 2019 opponents … 

FB Schedules ran a story this week on four teams which will enter the 2019 season with a string of victories against every team on their schedule.

The four teams?

• Georgia, which has a 34-0 current streak against it’s 2019 opponents;
• Boise State … 45-0 (including eight in a row v. Colorado State);
• Clemson … 49-0; and
• Ohio State … 78-0 (a 23-0 run against Indiana doesn’t hurt the Buckeyes’ total).

Which got me to thinking … how does CU stack up against it’s 2019 schedule?

Better than I thought.

• Colorado State … four straight wins;
• Nebraska … won the most recent meeting;
• Air Force … five straight wins;
• Arizona State … won the most recent meeting;
• Arizona … lost two straight;
• Oregon … won the most recent meeting;
• Washington State … lost two straight;
• USC … lost 13 straight (CU has never defeated USC);
• UCLA … won the most recent meeting;
• Stanford … won the most recent meeting;
• Washington … lost nine straight (no Pac-12 wins over Huskies; last win coming in 1996 Holiday Bowl);
• Utah … lost two straight.

Strange as it may seem – it came as a surprise to me – Colorado actually will take the field against seven of its opponents with a winning streak.

So the Buffs have that going for them … which is nice.

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Now, here’s a surprising stat … 

No way I would have thought CU would have been in the top three in the Pac-12 in this category.

Most Games Allowing No Opponent Touchdowns in Last 10 Years

• 1. Washington, 10
• 2. Stanford, 9
• 3. Colorado, 8
• 3.  Oregon, 8
• 5. Utah, 7
• 5.  Washington State, 7
• 7. Arizona, 6
• 7.  USC, 6
• 9. Arizona State, 5
• 10. Cal, 4
• 11. UCLA, 3
• 10. OSU, 2

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But, if you counter it with these stats … 

You know why CU has struggled over the past decade plus (from SportsPac12):

Games Scoring 7+ Touchdowns since 2000

• 1. Oregon, 60
• 2. USC, 35
• 3. Arizona State, 25
• 4. Cal, 23
• 5. Arizona, 21
• 5. Stanford, 21
• 7. Utah, 20
• 7. WSU, 20
• 9. Washington, 17
• 10. Oregon State, 13
• 11. UCLA, 12
• 12. Colorado, 9

And …

Games Allowing Opponents Just One Touchdown or Less since 2000

• 1. Utah, 69
• 2. USC, 66
• 3. Washington, 54
• 4. Stanford, 52
• 5. Oregon State, 43
• 6. Oregon, 42
• 7. Cal, 39
• 8. Arizona, 37
• 8. Arizona State, 37
• 10. UCLA, 35
• 11. Colorado, 31
• 11. Washington State, 31

And …

Games Scoring Just One Touchdown or Less since 2000

• 1. Oregon, 16
• 1. USC, 16
• 3. Arizona State, 24
• 4. Utah, 29
• 5. Washington, 31
• 6. Cal, 32
• 7. Oregon State, 33
• 8. Stanford, 35
• 9. Washington State, 38
• 10.UCLA, 41
• 11. Arizona, 42
• 12. Colorado, 50

And … this is just gross …

Point Differential since 2000

• 1. USC +3,014
• 2. Oregon +2,892
• 3. Utah +2,002
• 4. Stanford +1,004
• 5. Arizona State +975
• 6. Washington +508
• 7. Cal +471
• 8. UCLA +97
• 9. Oregon State -36
• 10. Arizona -104
• 11. WSU -484
• 12. Colorado -1,116

Damn, it’s been hard to be a Buff fan …

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Compare those numbers to … 

… The 1990’s. Ah, those were the days.

Appearances in AP Football Poll in 1990’s

• 1. Colorado, 136
• 2. Washington, 127
• 3. USC, 86
• 4. UCLA, 77
• 5. Arizona, 74
• 6. Oregon, 44
• 6. Stanford, 44
• 8. Arizona State, 43
• 9. Washington State, 37
• 10. Cal, 25
• 11. Utah, 15
• 12. Oregon State, 0

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Buff Trivia Question of the Week … In CU’s history as a member of the Big Eight, Big 12, and Pac-12, how many first year Buff coaches have enjoyed a winning record in their first season?

Answer … Two (out of 11) … Rick Neuheisel and Gary Barnett

The records of CU head coaches in their first season (since 1959):

• Sonny Grandelius (1959) … 5-5
• Bud Davis (1962) … 2-8
• Eddie Crowder (1963) … 2-8
• Bill Mallory (1974) … 5-6
• Chuck Fairbanks (1979) … 3-8
• Bill McCartney (1982) … 2-8-1
• Rick Neuheisel (1995) … 10-2
• Gary Barnett (1999) … 7-5
• Dan Hawkins (2006) … 2-10
• Jon Embree (2011) … 3-10
• Mike MacIntyre (2013) … 4-8

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This post, about the Spring/Summer game, from the 2019 Season, is filed under Article.
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