CU v. Washington – A Preview

—

Colorado v. No. 7 Washington Preview: “T.I.P.S.” for CU’s shot at redemption

—

The Colorado/Washington game has been circled on the calendar for the Buff Nation since last December 2nd, when the No. 4 Huskies dominated the No. 8 Buffs, 41-10, in the Pac-12 championship game.

Time for payback? Time for revenge? Time for redemption?

Perhaps not.

“I think it’s about proving to ourselves that we’re capable of playing in the Pac-12 and we’re capable of playing for a Pac-12 championship,” Buffs cornerback Isaiah Oliver said at Tuesday’s weekly press conference. “That starts this Saturday. Opening up Pac-12 play, we know we have to take our game to the next level. We’re not really looking at it as a big game against Washington, we’re looking at it as a big game in the Pac-12 as a whole. It wouldn’t matter which team we’re playing, just opening up Pac-12 play is a big deal for us.”

Buff fans are certainly hoping that this game will be a “big deal” for the CU players. There are concerns that the team hasn’t played its last two opponents like they were “big deals”, and may not be capable of staying with the Huskies.

We’ll find out soon enough …

—

This week’s “T.I.P.S.” for CU v. No. 7 Washington … Saturday, 8:00 p.m., MT, FS1

—

T – Talent 

The past two weeks, you had to look long and hard to find players on the opposing roster who scared you.

Now the Buffs face a team with a roster where you have to look long and hard to find players who don’t scare you.

Texas State, near the bottom of the FBS, and Northern Colorado, near the middle of the FCS, weren’t loaded with NFL-caliber talent.

This just in … Washington has such talent.

Where to start?

Quarterback Jake Browning actually has fewer passing yards so far this season than does Steven Montez (858 yards for Montez; 798 yards for Browning), but that is largely due to Browning not being needed to finish games. Other than a first half scare against Rutgers (30–14 final), the Huskies have been coasting (beating Montana 63-7 and Fresno State 48-16), with Browning’s talents not necessary for the full 60 minutes.

Last year, Browning threw for 43 touchdowns and nine interceptions, and has an 8-to-1 ratio so far this season. Browning is very good, but here’s the worrisome part: In the Pac-12 championship game last season, Browning was held to 9-of-24 passing for 118 yards by CU’s top 20 defense … and the Huskies still won going away, 41-10.

Browning’s weapons?

Myles Gaskin is Washington’s leading rusher, with a 6.4 yards per carry average and three touchdowns in limited action so far this season. Gaskin has rushed for over 2,600 yards the past two seasons, and had 159 yards against the Buffs last December.

The leading receiver is a name Buff fans will be hearing about a great deal this week.

Dante Pettis has 12 receptions for 209 yards (a nifty 17.4 yards per carry) and three touchdowns. Pettis has mostly made a name for himself, however, as a punt returner. In the first three games of the 2017 season, Pettis has three punt returns for touchdowns, including a 77-yarder against Fresno State last weekend.

Pettis now has eight punt returns for touchdowns in his career, tying the NCAA-record. With a punt return for a touchdown against Colorado, Pettis would break the career record, while also setting a new record for consecutive games with a punt return touchdown in four straight games.

If he does, Pettis will come full circle, with his first punt return for a score having come against … Colorado. Three years ago in Boulder, Pettis, then a true freshman receiver, scored the first touchdown of his career on a 28-yard reception. Later in the game, he had an 87-yard punt return for touchdown – the first punt return score by a Husky in 11 years.

CU punter Alex Kinney has only allowed two punt returns so far this season, but if the Buffs kick to Pettis Saturday night … well, they get what they deserve (Rocket Ismail, anyone?).

It being a given that the Washington offense has weapons, is CU’s best hope to play for a shootout against the Huskies, with the CU offense going point-for-point against the Washington offense?

That will be tough.

Washington is ranked 14th in the nation in total defense, giving up only 261.7 yards per game. And that’s not a fluke … last season the Huskies were ranked 12th in the nation in defense. Linebacker Azeem Victor (No. 36) is on almost everyone’s All-American list. The defensive line? Suffice it to say that it is better than anything the Buffs have seen so far in 2017.

Washington is ranked 13th in scoring defense … right behind the Buffs, who are 4th in the nation in scoring defense.

Those small sample rankings would suggest a low-scoring game.

We can only hope.

With a low-scoring game, the contest can come down to turnovers and momentum, and, with any luck, some Folsom Field magic.

—

I – Intangibles

Were the Buffs bluffing?

Is it humanly possible that the Buffs have looked so … what’s a kind word? … mediocre so far in 2017, because they have holding back in hopes of catching the Huskies off-guard?

Not likely.

The Buffs were looking for a “complete game” against Northern Colorado (Mike MacIntyre’s words, not mine).

The term “complete game”, though, can only be applied if CU’s head coach was referring to his starters having to stay in for the full sixty minutes.

Instead of getting reps for the backups due to a blowout, the Buffs were forced to play backups as their starters were heading to the locker room after being assessed targeting penalties.

Can the Buffs just “turn the switch”, and not make mistakes (e.g., 14 penalties v. Northern Colorado, to go with two red zone turnovers) which will cost them the game this weekend?

“I feel like we’ve been preparing for Pac-12 play ever since we lost last year against Oklahoma State,” said Isaiah Oliver, who draws the unenviable task of guarding Dante Pettis. “This is something we’ve been working for, getting ready to get back to the Pac-12 Championship. All of the guys are excited and fired up and ready to go.”

Fingers crossed.

—

P – Preparation / Schedule

In the preseason lists of “easy” non-conference schedules, Colorado was often mentioned. The Buffs did have to face in-state rival Colorado State, but the two other non-conference games were both at home, and came against less-than-stellar competition.

Also on that national preseason list of cushy non-conference slates – often ranked even higher (lower?) than Colorado – was Washington. The Huskies did open on the road, but against a Rutgers team which went 2-10 last season (beating Howard and New Mexico) before heading home to take on Montana from the Big Sky Conference, and woeful Fresno State.

Both teams, as a result, could have been forgiven for pointing towards this weekend as the first big game of the 2017 season.

But … is Washington really even looking forward to this game?

Last year, Colorado beat Colorado State, 44-7, and Buff fans were dismissive of the Rams’ chances against CU this fall.

Last year, Washington beat Colorado, 41-10 … any reason why the Huskies shouldn’t be dismissive of the Buffs’ chances against Washington this fall?

Following that logic, an argument can actually be made that Washington will be on cruise control until November. After facing the Buffs, the schedule for the Huskies through the end of October: at Oregon State; California; at Arizona State; bye week; UCLA.

Washington’s November to remember is still a ways off: Oregon; at Stanford; Utah; Washington State.

While Saturday’s game will be the culmination of nine month’s of waiting for Colorado, it’s just another hurdle for the Huskies on their way to the College Football Playoffs.

Advantage: Colorado.

—

S – Statistics

A valid argument can be made that, even though the season is already one-fourth done, that 2017 season statistics remain irrelevant. Until we get into conference play, and teams have to face a more balanced schedule of opponents, you are comparing apples to oranges.

But, hey, I like statistics:

— Even after giving up three touchdowns to a fair-to-middling Big Sky Conference school, Colorado remains fourth in the nation in scoring defense. The Buffs are surrendering only 6.75 points per game (Washington is 13th, giving up 12.3 ppg.);

— After the Buffs gave up a surprise early touchdown to Northern Colorado, the Buffs quickly responded, erasing their only deficit of the season. To date, the Buffs have been in the lead for 150:55 of game clock, trailing only 1:49 (and tied for 27:16);

— CU has had 12 red zone opportunities, with ten scores (six touchdowns; four field goals). Not great, but the Buff defense has been perfect, not allowing a touchdown in four opponent penetrations of the red zone (two field goals). The Buff defense has yet to face a goal-to-go situation, while the CU offense has four touchdowns in four goal-to-go opportunities;

— Stat No. 1 to track Saturday night … Colorado is 17th in the nation in third-down conversion defense (12-for-47, .255), while Washington is 26th in the nation in third-down conversion defense (14-for-49, .286). Win this statistic – win the game;

— Stat No. 2 to track Saturday night … Colorado and Washington are tied for 14th in the nation in turnovers forced, with seven apiece. If the Buffs are to have any chance of beating the Huskies, this stat has to fall in favor of Colorado; and

— Odd Stat of the Week: Colorado is one of only two teams in the country which has yet to return a kickoff.

—

Bottom Line … It may sound strange – as many Buff fans are awaiting Saturday’s kickoff with trepidation – but the Washington game actually presents Colorado with a golden opportunity.

An opportunity the Buffs haven’t had in almost a year … a contest in which they have almost everything to gain, and almost nothing to lose.

Since last year’s game against USC, expectations for the Buffs have been ramped up … and up …and up. There was the first-ever win over Arizona State; then the first-ever win on the road over Stanford; the first win over UCLA as a member of the Pac-12; the first win over ranked teams (Washington State and Utah) in almost a decade; the first-ever Pac-12 title game; the first bowl game since 2007 …

This weekend, what are the expectations of the Buffs?

Keep it close? Be respectable? Don’t get embarrassed?

That’s a pretty low threshold for a team which has won 13 of its last 17 games.

A team ranked just outside of the Top 25 in the nation, a team which is 3-0, a team which is playing at home … is still a ten-point underdog.

Washington has lived up to expectations so far in 2017; the Buffs have not.

“To me, that’s a good thing,” Mike MacIntyre said of the criticism his team has faced for not playing better to start the season. “Everybody is talking different about us. It might be a negative thought or a negative vibe – ‘Well, they can’t do this; they’re not ready for this’ – but I’m glad we’re not celebrating and having parades in the street that we’re 3-0.

“We want to do something better than that. Hopefully we can.”

We’ll see.

I would love to believe that the Buffs will have figured out their offensive line issues by Saturday night.

I would love to see the CU defensive line control the line of scrimmage against the Washington offense.

I would love to see the Buff secondary keep Husky receivers from getting behind them for long scores.

I would love for the Buffs to be able to say “we told you so” to the college football world, and find themselves as a top 20 team in the rankings Sunday.

I just don’t see it.

If Colorado falls to No. 7 Washington, the season will not be over. It will not be a disaster.

Most Buff fans would have predicted a 3-1 start to the season. There will still be plenty to play for after this Saturday.

Prove me wrong, Buffs.

No. 7 Washington 38, Colorado 20

–

—–

This post, about the Washington game, from the 2017 Season, is filed under Article.
You can follow any comments to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a comment.