CU v. CSU – A Preview

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Colorado v. Colorado State Preview: “T.I.P.S.” for CU’s attempt to put CSU in its place

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For the past nine months, Colorado fans have been basking in the glow of the Buffs’ ten-win 2016 campaign.

For the past nine months, the Buff Nation has been looking forward to a 3-0 non-conference start to the 2017 season, setting up a Pac-12 title game re-match with Washington in the conference opener.

And why not?

Games two and three on the 2017 schedule are against FBS bottom-feeder Texas State and FCS middleweight Northern Colorado.

Which left Colorado State as the only non-conference “challenge” for the Buffs, and even that didn’t seem like a real threat.

After all, the last time Colorado played Colorado State, it was a 44-7 demolition. The last time the Rams were on the field, they were giving up 61 points to Idaho (Idaho!) on the Smurf Turf in Boise.

That all changed when Colorado State opened its season with a 58-27 rout of Oregon State. The Rams racked up over 500 yards of total offense against a Beaver team which many prognosticators were penciling in as a bowl team this fall.

Well, at least we know that the Buffs will be taking the Rams seriously …

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This week’s “T.I.P.S.” for CU v. Colorado State … Friday, 6:00 p.m. MT, Pac-12 Networks

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T – Talent 

There were only five games in “Week Zero” of the 2017 college football season, so the NCAA isn’t posting statistically relevant rankings just yet.

If there had been a full slate of games, the Colorado State Rams would be entering the 2017 Rocky Mountain Showdown very highly ranked. Other than Stanford, which embarrassed hapless Rice, 62-7, no team had a better statistical day on offense than did CSU.

The Rams posted 525 yards of total offense, with Nick Stevens going 26-for-39 for 334 yards and three touchdowns. The senior quarterback’s favorite target was preseason All-MWC candidate Michael Gallup, who had 11 receptions for 134 yards.

Gallup is a known quantity, and has likely been getting the attention of CU’s premier cornerback, Isaiah Oliver, for much of CU’s Fall Camp. While many eyes will be on the Gallup/Oliver matchup Friday night, the real test for the CU defense might be when red-shirt freshman cornerback Trey Udoffia lines up against CSU’s No. 2 receiver, Olabisi Johnson. Against Oregon State, Johnson had five catches for 66 yards, after collecting 28 receptions for 613 yards in the 2016 season.

On the ground, Colorado State was very successful against Oregon State, posting 191 yards and three touchdowns. Leading the way was a name familiar to Buff fans, Dalyn Dawkins. The senior running back, who finished the 2016 season with four straight 100-yard games, had 67 yards and a touchdown on 15 carries against the Beavers.

While it was anticipated that the CSU offense would be potent in 2017, the question mark coming into the season was the defense. The Rams were 81st in scoring defense last season, and were 98th in the nation against the run. That seemed to be a perfect setup for Oregon State and running back Ryan Nall, last seen going for 154 yards and four touchdowns in the 34-24 2016 season finale win over Oregon. Nall did have 115 yards rushing against the Rams, but 75 of those yards came on a touchdown run in the second quarter. Otherwise, Nall was held to a pedestrian 40 yards on 14 carries.

Oregon State’s junior quarterback, Jake Luton, did pass for 304 yards against Colorado State’s defense. Luton, though, missed open receivers early, and finished the day with three interceptions. His pick-six in the third quarter turned a one-possession game into a rout.

In all, the Colorado State defense accumulated five turnovers, holding Oregon State to seven second half points.

Suffice it to say, the Rams will head to Denver Friday with great confidence … with numbers to back it up.

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I – Intangibles

“Last year’s team, it was an awesome experience,” head coach Mike MacIntyre said of CU’s 2016 season. “But, we go back to square one and we start all over again, from every X and O, from every fundamental. It starts over every year.”

A few days ago, there was fear that the Colorado players would go into the Rocky Mountain Showdown with too much confidence. After all, the Buffs played the perfect game against the Rams a year ago. CU was up 24-0 before CSU posted its first first down of the game, and the Buffs were up 37-0 before the Rams scored a consolation touchdown in the fourth quarter of a 44-7 rout.

Now, it’s safe to say that the Rams have the full attention of the Buff coaches and players.

And up in Ft. Collins?

There is no doubt that the Ram players would rather take the trip down to Boulder after a blowout win rather than a blowout loss, but the question needs to be asked: How much extra energy was put into defeating Oregon State in the opener for their new stadium?

According to the Oregonian, the CSU regents tailgated with fans before the stadium opening. The university arranged a flyover by F-16s prior to the game. An Oregon State administrator walking through the stadium looked at all the special arrangements being made and said out loud, “This is their Super Bowl.”

Can the Rams have enough in the tank to play a Super Bowl two weeks in a row?

“Everyone is going to pat us on the back now,” CSU coach Mike Bobo said after the 58-27 rout of Oregon State. “Everybody is going to tell us how great we are. Everybody is going to tell us how great that moment was. … We’ve got to be mature enough as a football team to understand how we got to this point to win this ball game — by doing the little things every day.”

The Rams will be sky high at the opening kickoff of the 2017 Rocky Mountain Showdown.

It will be up to the Buffs to bring them back down to earth.

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P – Preparation / Schedule

First, let’s take the September 9th games out of the equation.

A week from Saturday, Colorado will host Texas State in Boulder, while Colorado State returns home to face Abilene Christian.

Those games are not on the radar of either program … it’s all about this Friday.

Colorado head coach Mike MacIntyre has spent the past few months telling anyone who would listen that Colorado State gained the upper hand over his Buffs by moving up the Oregon State game. “This year if I would’ve known they were having a week zero game, we would’ve had a zero week game”, said MacIntyre. “I think that gives them an advantage”.

MacIntyre’s biggest concern is that the Rams will have “game-speed” experience under their belts. Throw in the fact that it will be CU’s season opener in front of a large crowd at a neutral stadium and it’s something MacIntyre admits is a concern.

“That gives them a big advantage, at least the beginning of the game for sure,” MacIntyre said. “We’re going to have to find a way get the tempo of the game … Hopefully we’ll be able to come out of the gates fast, but that gives them a huge advantage, to me. I’m concerned about that.”

History says otherwise, as we have discussed. In “CSU v. OSU – Advantage Buffs?“, there are these stats:

— Historically, Colorado is 16-4 when the Buffs are playing their opener against a team which has already played a game. Most of those games were over 50 years ago, but CU is 4-1 in such games since 1988, including a 2-1 record against Colorado State.

— Colorado holds a commanding 64-22-2 overall lead in the series. The Buffs have gone 7-3 against the Rams over the past decade, a ten-year span which included some of the worst teams in Colorado history.

And … not for nothing. The 2017 Rocky Mountain Showdown will be played on Friday night. The Rams will have only six days to focus their entire attention on the Buffs.

The Buffs have had all of August to focus their attention on the Rams.

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S – Statistics

The Buffs have yet to take the field of play in 2017. And, at this point, 2016 statistics no longer count.

Colorado State, meanwhile, has some glowing offensive numbers.

The Rams had 525 yards of total offense, scoring 58 points. Quarterback Nick Stevens through for three touchdowns … his eighth straight game with at least two scores, and third straight with at least three.

“The thing I’ve noticed about Nick is he’s making quicker decisions,” MacIntyre said. “He’s getting the ball out of his hand quicker. He’s knowing where he’s going with the ball a bit quicker sometimes. That helps him and helps their offensive line”.

Dating back to last season, Colorado State has scored 37-plus points in seven straight games, averaging 49.3 points per game in those games.

“They are a well-balanced offense,” CU defensive coordinator D.J. Eliot said. “They run enough pro-style plays, enough spread plays that you have to be ready to defend a lot of different things. It’s a veteran group and they know what they’re doing. They’re playing fast and we have to be ready to play.”

While the CSU offense may be operating on all cylinders, the Ram defense did give up 456 yards of total offense to an Oregon State offense which couldn’t get out of its own way, turning the ball over five times.

“I thought they played well,” CU junior cornerback Isaiah Oliver allowed. “I feel like they’ve gotten a lot better since last year. That’s something we already knew going into the game. It was nothing really surprising to us. We’re still preparing the same way we were going to prepare regardless.”

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Prediction … For the past nine months, I worried about how the Buffs would handle early adversity in their 2017 opener.

The 2016 season opened with about as perfect performance as the Buffs have produced in the past decade.

How would the 2017 team react if they didn’t score 24 first quarter points? If the Rams didn’t produce six punts and two turnovers in their eight first half possessions?

As Mike Tyson put it, “Everyone has a plan until they get punched in the mouth”.

In three hours on Saturday, the CSU Rams alleviated my fears. If the Buffs are surprised and disconsolate if the Rams score in the first half, that’s on them. If the Buffs are discouraged if they don’t score 31 first half points, that’s on the coaches.

The Buffs know they will be in for a dogfight on Friday night. They know they will score points … they also know they will give up points.

The Rams haven’t been held under four touchdowns since mid-October. The Buffs are, dating back to last December, coming off of two dismal offensive performances.

I have to say I liked what senior safety Abolabi Laguda had to say at Tuesday’s press conference:

“Faces may change but expectations never do,” Laguda said. “Our expectations are high, we’re definitely ready to go. Our coaches are on board and we’re on board with our coaching staff. They’re going to lead and we’re going to follow right behind them. We’re all going to go to war together.”

The line for the game opened with CU an eight-point favorite. It’s down to 5.5, as the nation is showing it believes in the Rams.

The Buffs have been losing respect for nine months. Ranked at the end of last season, the Buffs’ stock has been dropping ever since. Colorado fell out of the Top 25 in the preseason polls; the Pac-12 media put the Buffs back in fourth place in the Pac-12 South.

A CU team which has something to prove?

A CU team with a chip on its shoulder?

That’s just the way we like them …

Colorado 42, Colorado State 31

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This post, about the Colorado State game, from the 2017 Season, is filed under Article.
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