Any Given Saturday

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Any Given Saturday

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It has been a frustrating year for Colorado fans.

At times the Buffs have played well, but at other times – too many other times – the Buffs have looked out-of-sync, unprepared, even indifferent.

Colorado entered the game against California with a 4-4 record … a record which would have been heaven on earth for the Buff Nation a few years ago, but, after a 10-4 campaign in 2016, a real disappointment.

“We still have a lot left to accomplish,” said Phillip Lindsay in the Tuesday press conference leading up to the 44-28 win over the Bears. “For a lot of us, it is the last four or five games left in our college careers, so the sense of urgency is we’ll never play another down in black and gold after these five games. We want to go out with a bang. We want to leave everything out there.”

All well and good, but the Buffs had been promising improvement for weeks, with little to show for it in Pac-12 play.

The Buffs came into the game against Cal off of a 28-0 whipping by No. 15 Washington State. The Buff offense was not only shutout, but were embarrassed, posting only 174 yards. Starting quarterback Steven Montez, who was supposed to have a banner year in 2017, was benched at halftime.

There was some question as to whether Montez would even be the starting quarterback against Cal. Montez not only started against the Bears, he led the Buffs to a convincing 44-28 victory. For the game, Montez had a career best quarterback rating (227.1), completing 20-of-26 passes for 347 yards and three touchdowns. For good measure, Montez added a seven yard scoring run.

“I was really upset all week,” Montez said. “I just really wanted to get back to the drawing board. I felt like I had let my team down against Washington State. … I felt like I needed to get back and make a statement.”

Overall, the Buffs put forth arguably their best game of the season. The offense posted 553 yards, including 200 on the ground. The defense surrendered 435 yards to the Bears, but 210 of those yards came in the fourth quarter after CU had built a 34-14 lead. Even special teams – James Stefanou was 3-for-3 on field goal attempts; Alex Kinney averaged 49.3 yards on three punts; and the return game was solid – contributed to the victory.

Steven Montez has had good games and lousy games this fall.

Colorado has had good games and lousy games this fall.

And, as much as Buff fans would like to believe that the 44-28 win is a sign of how Colorado will finish out the season, it’s equally likely (if not more so) that the Buffs will have at least one more poor effort.

Here’s the thing … Colorado is not alone in this roller coaster ride of a season.

The Pac-12 as a league has had good teams play poorly, and lousy teams play well.

Any given Saturday, the Buffs could be considered one of the teams in the top half of the Pac-12 … or in the bottom half.

And that’s true for most of the teams in the league.

The website, thespun.com, took the time earlier this week to work through ESPN’s Football Power Index (FPI) to project how the Pac-12 would play out based upon ESPN’s rating of each team.

The results were telling …

ESPN’s FPI projects every game, based on each team’s percentage chance to win.

• Arizona, 5-2, is projected to finish 7-5, with wins over Washington State and Oregon State, and losses to USC, Oregon and ASU.
• Arizona State, 4-3, is projected to finish 7-5, with wins over Colorado, Oregon State and Arizona, and losses to USC and UCLA.
• Cal, 4-4, is projected to finish 5-7, with the lone win coming against Oregon State.
• Colorado, 4-4, is projected to finish 5-7, with the lone win coming against Cal.
• Oregon, 4-4, is projected to finish 7-5, winning three of their last four versus Utah, Arizona and Oregon State.
• Oregon State, 1-7, is projected to finish 1-11, losing out the rest of the season to Cal, Arizona, ASU and Oregon.
• Stanford, 6-2, is projected to finish 8-4, with wins over WSU and Cal, but with losses to Notre Dame and Washington.
• UCLA, 4-3, is projected to finish 7-5, with wins over Utah, ASU and Cal, but with losses to Washington and USC.
• USC, 6-2, is projected to finish 10-2, winning out the rest of the season versus ASU, Arizona, Colorado and UCLA.
• Utah, 4-3, is projected to finish 5-7, with the lone win coming against Colorado.
• Washington, 6-1, is projected to finish 11-1, winning out the rest of the season versus UCLA, Oregon, Stanford, Washington State and Utah.
• Washington State, 7-1, is projected to finish 8-4, with the lone win coming against Utah and losses to Arizona, Stanford and Washington.

So, for those scoring at home, the FPI projections went 6-0 this weekend.

If the projections hold, the Pac-12 will finish the season with seven teams with either a 7-5 record or a 5-7 record.

That’s a whole lot of mediocrity.

That’s also a whole lot of guesswork as to which teams will have the ball bounce their way, and qualify for a bowl, and as to which teams will have the ball bounce against them, and finish with a losing record.

“We needed to win bad, especially at home,” said Mike MacIntyre of the Buffs’ win over Cal. “That was our first gold game and now we’ve got three more. We’re going to play a really good Arizona State team. I think Todd Graham is a heck of a coach and they found their way. That’s the next one we’ve got to go to. We want to win them all and we’re going to try to win them all, but you just have a better chance at home. That’s just a fact. We needed to take care of that and we did today. I think that’s big for all those kids’ confidence.”

Can the Buffs find at least one more win in the final three – at Arizona State; USC; at Utah?

Sure.

They could also lose all three.

It’s been that kind of season.

A kind of season where Florida State opened the year as the No. 3 team in the nation, and a pick by some to win the national championship. The Seminoles are currently 2-5, and are in last place in the Atlantic division of the ACC.

There are other examples of teams across the nation which have disappointed this fall … Florida, Tennessee, Nebraska, Louisville, and North Carolina are just some of the teams on the list.

The Pac-12, as a conference, has been the definition of mediocrity.

As October turns into November, every team in the Pac-12 South has at least four wins, and is in the running for a bowl bid.

Every team in the Pac-12 South also has at least two losses, and is out of contention for the College Football playoffs.

The current Pac-12 standings:

• USC – 7-2 … 5-1
• Arizona – 6-2 … 4-1
• Arizona State – 4-4 … 3-2
• UCLA – 4-4 … 2-3
• Colorado – 5-4 … 2-4
• Utah – 4-4 … 1-4

On any given Saturday, every team in the division can look good – or awful:

– USC was mauled by Notre Dame, 49-14 … before mauling Arizona State, 48-17 Saturday night;

– Arizona was picked in the Pac-12 preseason media poll to finish last, but has been undefeated ever since the Buffs unwittingly unleashed Kahlil Tate upon the college football world;

– Arizona State handed Washington it’s only loss, and manhandled Utah … before getting embarrassed by USC;

– UCLA had a good time against Oregon (31-14) … before being out-classed by Washington (44-23);

– Utah handed Arizona its only conference loss, was undefeated and ranked No. 20 in the nation … before losing four straight to fall into the Pac-12 South basement.

And you already know about your Buffs season of ups and downs.

If the ESPN Football Power Index numbers hold true, Colorado will go winless in November, finishing the season with a 5-7 record.

“One at a time,” Lindsay said. “It’s one game at a time and we can’t worry about what anyone else is saying. The offense really came together today and the defense played lights out. We put it all together, now we just have to go do it again next week. One at a time.”

On any given Saturday …

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This post, about the California game, from the 2017 Season, is filed under Article.
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